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Author Topic: Interested in odds?  (Read 856 times)

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Nickbat

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Interested in odds?
« on: 09 September 2011, 22:03:13 »

The chances of winning the jackpot in the UK lottery are 1 in 13,983,816.

The chance of being hit by 550kg of space junk in the next month are 1 in 3,200.

Of course you don't need to buy a ticket for the latter event.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2011/sep/08/falling-satellite-nasa-space-earth

 ;)
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albitz

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Re: Interested in odds?
« Reply #1 on: 09 September 2011, 22:19:57 »

Im just amazed that you read the Grauniad website Nick. :D ;D
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tidla

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Re: Interested in odds?
« Reply #2 on: 09 September 2011, 22:23:47 »

i might start my own lottery, at a quid a go. naming the unlucky punter who gets smacked by the space junk.

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Nickbat

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Re: Interested in odds?
« Reply #3 on: 09 September 2011, 22:42:08 »

Quote
Im just amazed that you read the Grauniad website Nick. :D ;D

Don't worry, Albs, I found the story via another source (blatant thief that I am!)  ;) ;D
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Osprey

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Re: Interested in odds?
« Reply #4 on: 09 September 2011, 23:18:10 »

What they are trying to express is that if 3200 similar objects were to crash to earth, only one of them should be expected to hit anybody.  On average.

That isn't quite the same thing as a 1 in 3200 chance of being hit, which would guarantee that 2 million people will be hit by this one satellite. 

But then again, 63% of all statistics are crap anyway.  And I suspect this is an example of that majority.   ;)
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I feel like a military academy. Bits of me keep passing out.

tidla

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Re: Interested in odds?
« Reply #5 on: 09 September 2011, 23:22:33 »

Quote
What they are trying to express is that if 3200 similar objects were to crash to earth, only one of them should be expected to hit anybody.  On average.

That isn't quite the same thing as a 1 in 3200 chance of being hit, which would guarantee that 2 million people will be hit by this one satellite. 

But then again, 63% of all statistics are crap anyway.  And I suspect this is an example of that majority.   ;)

im not sure, do you want to buy one of one of my lottery tickets??
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Osprey

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Re: Interested in odds?
« Reply #6 on: 09 September 2011, 23:48:45 »

Fair enough - I'll take the ticket with no name on it because nobody got hit.  Or were you reserving that one for yourself?  ;D

Probably a nice quick way to go though!

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I feel like a military academy. Bits of me keep passing out.
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