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[LC0112G]

I expect the EU will start admitting new countries to make up for the expected lost revenue in 2018. 

The only countries likely to be admitted anytime soon are the ones from the former Yugoslavia. These are all tiny, and some of them are basket cases. No way will they contribute to any Post Brexit EU finances - infact probably quite the opposite.

The post Brexit UK however will be contributing a quite healthy amount via WTO tarrifs and import duties 

[Rods2]

I expect the EU will start admitting new countries to make up for the expected lost revenue in 2018. 

The only countries likely to be admitted anytime soon are the ones from the former Yugoslavia. These are all tiny, and some of them are basket cases. No way will they contribute to any Post Brexit EU finances - infact probably quite the opposite.

The post Brexit UK however will be contributing a quite healthy amount via WTO tarrifs and import duties 

That won't go anywhere near covering their export losses to the UK as any tariffs will be reciprocated and they sell more to us with their anti-UK bias leading to a higher and higher negative trade balance. The EU will have to compete against the many bilateral trade deals with zero or very low tariffs with 12 countries that have already contacted us. This includes USA, Canada, Ghana, India, Australia, New Zealand and South Korea. Apart from South Korea the are all major cheap food exporters. Going long on shares in EU food storage warehouses looks like a very profitable strategy.

These are some of the areas that the EU have stuffed our trade balance with them. CFP so as an Island we used to be net fish exporters. Now majority of fishing is by EU boats through EU quotas, so we are net importers. EU milk quotas means that where we used to be self sufficient we are now major importers. Energy we import 24/7 about 10-11% of our electricity where we used to only do this at rush hour peak time due to EU energy policy. We have lost most of our energy intensive heavy industry due to EU green tree-hugger energy rules including aluminium, steel, glass, cement and oil refining. Germany have managed to get away with cheap electricity to industry (to stop them relocating to Poland) by loading the extra costs on domestic tariffs. EU have launched a competition inquiry that is due to report in some century soon. France is the industry subsidy king. normally on investment in Green development stuff and they get away with it. A single market in services, on of the UKs strengths has been largely blocked by France and Germany. Fortunately, this will now change, I'm personally looking forward to cheap New Zealand lamb and butter again.

I expect our EU trade balance to now improve (we will save £10.8bn  and rising in net fees). We will export less (but this is falling anyway), but imports will fall much much more with higher domestic production and cheaper low tariff substitutes from global partners.

[LC0112G]

That won't go anywhere near covering their export losses to the UK as any tariffs will be reciprocated and they sell more to us with their anti-UK bias leading to a higher and higher negative trade balance. The EU will have to compete against the many bilateral trade deals with zero or very low tariffs with 12 countries that have already contacted us. This includes USA, Canada, Ghana, India, Australia, New Zealand and South Korea. Apart from South Korea the are all major cheap food exporters. Going long on shares in EU food storage warehouses looks like a very profitable strategy.

No chance of any trade deals with USA, Canada, Australia in the near term. 5-10 years perhaps. The UK represents around 20% of EU exports. The EU accounts for 44% of UK exports. Yes WTO tariffs will hurt both sides, but the it'll hurt us much, much more. And I'm sure UK farmers will be chuffed as nuts if we start importing cheap food from around the world undercutting them.

These are some of the areas that the EU have stuffed our trade balance with them. CFP so as an Island we used to be net fish exporters. Now majority of fishing is by EU boats through EU quotas, so we are net importers. EU milk quotas means that where we used to be self sufficient we are now major importers. Energy we import 24/7 about 10-11% of our electricity where we used to only do this at rush hour peak time due to EU energy policy. We have lost most of our energy intensive heavy industry due to EU green tree-hugger energy rules including aluminium, steel, glass, cement and oil refining. Germany have managed to get away with cheap electricity to industry (to stop them relocating to Poland) by loading the extra costs on domestic tariffs. EU have launched a competition inquiry that is due to report in some century soon. France is the industry subsidy king. normally on investment in Green development stuff and they get away with it. A single market in services, on of the UKs strengths has been largely blocked by France and Germany. Fortunately, this will now change, I'm personally looking forward to cheap New Zealand lamb and butter again.

I agree it'll probably be a major benefit to UK fishing, but that is a tiny industry compared to things like financial services. Once we're out, how are we going to stop the EU imposing taxes on financial services? Heavy industries aren't coming back - steel, glass, coal etc. are gone for good. Car making is next to go once they're subject to the 10% WTO tariffs. HMG can't allow the lights to go out so importing energy has to continue. It'll be a good 10 years before any new power stations could come online, and all the fuel would have to be imported for them anyway. 

I expect our EU trade balance to now improve (we will save £10.8bn  and rising in net fees). We will export less (but this is falling anyway), but imports will fall much much more with higher domestic production and cheaper low tariff substitutes from global partners.

I read a statistic that WTO tariffs typically add about 4% to costs of trade. The UK currently exports around £220bn, and it's been about that level since 2006. 4% of £220Bn is £8.8Bn. Not sure where you get £10.8bn from, ONS says Uk Nett contribution to the EU is estimated at £8.5Bn in 2015. So at 4% we save nothing. If it's higher we lose out. The EU could easily end up taking more from UK trade than they lose by us leaving. More likely is that UK exports fall (because the price to EU customers rises du to the tariffs) which will hurt the balance of trade.

Our Exports to the EU aren't falling. They've been static at between £200Bn and £220Bn since 2006 ish. Exports to the rest of the world have risen, so the £200-220Bn is a lower percentage of the total, but the actual value hasn't fallen.
http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/international-transactions/outward-foreign-affiliates-statistics/how-important-is-the-european-union-to-uk-trade-and-investment-/sty-eu.html

[Rods2]

Average bilateral trade agreements take about 22 months, regional ones take longer as there are multiple countries involved and WTO global ones take longest.