Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Sir Tigger KC]

I do wonder why such eminent financial experts drive Omegas and frequent a lowly forum like this ....

I don't think we'd do much worse to be honest.... 

[Rods2]

Shame I was away over the weekend .. I'd have asked all you "future readers" for the lottery numbers ...   but then .. if you are such "future experts" you'll have won the lottery anyway ... 

I do wonder why such eminent financial experts drive Omegas and frequent a lowly forum like this ....

 

We all have our hobbies and one of mine at the moment is trying to understand what is happening economically, as being forewarned is to forearmed. 

I've personally been hard hit by the recession not only work wise, but it has also hit my future pension pretty hard. I'm at an age now where I've got realistically 10 to 15 years to replace those losses and to build new businesses. Fortunately, my income with new customers and other income streams is recovering and as a computer programmer I can work anywhere in the world as long as I can live and work in that country and have a reasonable Internet connection, so it sure isn't going to be here, once I've sold my house.

As for lottery numbers, random future events can't be predicted. The best I can do is tell you that with probability theory your odds of 6 correct numbers are: (6 / 49) * (5  / 48) * (4 / 47) * (3 / 46) * (2 / 45) * (1 / 44)

Economics is a cross between maths, social interaction and random events and that makes it interesting.

This makes any outlook on future events impossible to absolutely predict, but in stable times using an extrapolation of where we are now and therefore what is likely to happen in the future works reasonably well and but at the moment we are not in stable economic times.

Somethings like the country's debts are increasing along with interest payments are obvious, many things are not. By reading other economic columns and blogs, plus writing my own thoughts and interacting with people is helping my knowledge base. Am I ever going to be an economic expert, no and I've no wish to be, do I want to understand enough about economics, so it helps to make good life / business decisions, most definitely.

I could have been as rude as you with my reply, but I would personally rather keep to the moral high ground and leave trolling to others!

[Rods2]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/ 

[STMO123]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/ 

Don't laugh. I hope Nick doesn't see that.

[STMO123]

To add to Rods assessment, this recession is different to past ones because the length of time it has been running and the depth of it has affected the psyche of the people that really matter......the consumer.
Not the rich who can afford to ride it out, or the poor who are hanging on for dear life, but the middle income folk who like nothing better than a Saturday afternoon splurge in town follwed by a meal out.
I, personally, will never be the same again. I simply do not trust politicians to look after my country's finances any more. We were told for years to save our cash and be careful. Ironically, what the country needs now is exactly the opposite.

Too late. The people with disposable income are sqirrelling it away, and who can blame them?

From BBC business today:
The British Bankers' Association (BBA) also said that loan and overdraft repayments outstripped new borrowing.
 
Personal loan levels are almost half of their peak in 2007-08, the BBA said.
 
"January's severe weather impacted adversely on what was already a subdued picture of borrowing demand from households and businesses," said David Dooks, BBA statistics director.
 
"While general economic growth stalls, low consumer and business confidence generates a natural tendency to restrain borrowing appetite, repay borrowing where possible and to build up cash and savings as a buffer."

[Entwood]

To add to Rods assessment, this recession is different to past ones because the length of time it has been running and the depth of it has affected the psyche of the people that really matter......the consumer.
Not the rich who can afford to ride it out, or the poor who are hanging on for dear life, but the middle income folk who like nothing better than a Saturday afternoon splurge in town follwed by a meal out.
I, personally, will never be the same again. I simply do not trust politicians to look after my country's finances any more. We were told for years to save our cash and be careful. Ironically, what the country needs now is exactly the opposite.

Too late. The people with disposable income are sqirrelling it away, and who can blame them?

From BBC business today:
The British Bankers' Association (BBA) also said that loan and overdraft repayments outstripped new borrowing.
 
Personal loan levels are almost half of their peak in 2007-08, the BBA said.
 
"January's severe weather impacted adversely on what was already a subdued picture of borrowing demand from households and businesses," said David Dooks, BBA statistics director.
 
"While general economic growth stalls, low consumer and business confidence generates a natural tendency to restrain borrowing appetite, repay borrowing where possible and to build up cash and savings as a buffer."

There is another point, rarely mentioned by the pundits (as they like to think they are the only ones with brains) .. this recession is markedly different from previous versions as Official Interest Rates are now at spectacularly low levels.

This has lead to Banks, Building Societies etc etc dropping the rates offered to savers to what could be called "stupid" levels in comparison to the rates they are still charging borrowers ... the "split" in the rates between loans and savings has never been so obscene.

Thus those folks with the odd functioning brain cell have worked out that it is far better to pay off your debts with your savings, it actually saves you money.

In past times this was seen to be a "bad" idea as it left you vulnerable to any unforeseen eventuality ... no "rainy day" money to fall back on; however, with the Social Services the way the past lot left them - but only when you have no savings - it is now so easy to run to SS for help there is no need, in fact, it makes no sense, to have savings.

Politicians, Bankers and Economists don't like this for 3 reasons.... 1) They don't believe the population should be allowed to think, 2) Money is only made from those people who are in debt, not from those who have cleared their debts. 3) they have fed the falsehood that a citizen is required to spend to support the country in order to try and make folks take on debt they don't need.

When folks see through their smokescreens they call it "lack of confidence" .. they are probably right .. but it is a lack of confidence in THEM nothing less !!!

[STMO123]

The Bank of England base rate is nothing more than a con. As you say, the interest rates offered on savings is, taking inflation into account, less than 0%. Mention this to your bank/building society and they will tell you that their rates are base rate +?%.
But, of course, when they lend you money, at 8%,  they are lending you money they borrowed for free, and are cashing in big time.
One way to recapitalise the banks, I suppose.

[Rods2]

The banks get cheap money from the Government and in return they lower saving interest rates and widen borrower rates to boost their profits. Just what the BOE and Government wanted, where it helped them reach their new capital reserve requirements.

The falling pound will also add to inflation to debase the currency, but to talk it down and make it go down further they are talking about another £25bn of QE. They may also be concerned about the money supply where people are paying down debts and they think this needs a further boost. But don't worry about Lord King when he retires in June about inflation hurting his massive pension, it is index linked. Shrinking pensions is for the plebs. 

The UK population is paying down debts at the moment as they can see that the current Government spending situation is not sustainable and are rightly worried. At some point interest rates are going to have to rise and the prudent who have paid down debts will be in the better position. Once official rates hit 4,5,6% many zombie households are going to be in trouble.  Where there have been relatively few repossessions during this recession, that's when they will start to rise. 

Two Fundamental Government Rules:

1. It is never the Government's fault but always the populations / consumer or even due to the wrong sort of weather.

2. If it is the Government's fault, see rule 1.

[Vamps]

To add to Rods assessment, this recession is different to past ones because the length of time it has been running and the depth of it has affected the psyche of the people that really matter......the consumer.
Not the rich who can afford to ride it out, or the poor who are hanging on for dear life, but the middle income folk who like nothing better than a Saturday afternoon splurge in town follwed by a meal out.
I, personally, will never be the same again. I simply do not trust politicians to look after my country's finances any more. We were told for years to save our cash and be careful. Ironically, what the country needs now is exactly the opposite.

Too late. The people with disposable income are sqirrelling it away, and who can blame them?

From BBC business today:
The British Bankers' Association (BBA) also said that loan and overdraft repayments outstripped new borrowing.
 
Personal loan levels are almost half of their peak in 2007-08, the BBA said.
 
"January's severe weather impacted adversely on what was already a subdued picture of borrowing demand from households and businesses," said David Dooks, BBA statistics director.
 
"While general economic growth stalls, low consumer and business confidence generates a natural tendency to restrain borrowing appetite, repay borrowing where possible and to build up cash and savings as a buffer."

There is another point, rarely mentioned by the pundits (as they like to think they are the only ones with brains) .. this recession is markedly different from previous versions as Official Interest Rates are now at spectacularly low levels.

This has lead to Banks, Building Societies etc etc dropping the rates offered to savers to what could be called "stupid" levels in comparison to the rates they are still charging borrowers ... the "split" in the rates between loans and savings has never been so obscene.

Thus those folks with the odd functioning brain cell have worked out that it is far better to pay off your debts with your savings, it actually saves you money.

In past times this was seen to be a "bad" idea as it left you vulnerable to any unforeseen eventuality ... no "rainy day" money to fall back on; however, with the Social Services the way the past lot left them - but only when you have no savings - it is now so easy to run to SS for help there is no need, in fact, it makes no sense, to have savings.
Politicians, Bankers and Economists don't like this for 3 reasons.... 1) They don't believe the population should be allowed to think, 2) Money is only made from those people who are in debt, not from those who have cleared their debts. 3) they have fed the falsehood that a citizen is required to spend to support the country in order to try and make folks take on debt they don't need.

When folks see through their smokescreens they call it "lack of confidence" .. they are probably right .. but it is a lack of confidence in THEM nothing less !!!

Would you like to elaberate on that E, have you tried to access Social Services, front line services almost none existent, all effort now on Safeguarding - a bit like locking the door after the horse has left..........