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[Varche]

Anyone else having difficulty working out where North Korea is heading.

They surely cannot believe an actual war is winnable?

Anyone got their theory on how it will pan out?

[Rods2]

The route to guarantee DPRK survival is to build an ICBM deliverable nuclear bomb. This prevents a Saddam Hussein / Gaddafi ending to their regime. Will they ever be persuaded to renounce them? Well after what happened to Ukraine that will be a no.

The good news is that the DPRK know the quickest route to their annihilation is to use them or other mass murder methods like missile delivered biological/chemical weapons. SK and Japan are the most likely targets if this does happen.

But there is also some very bad news:

1. What happens if DPRK decides once they have ICBM nukes that to earn $$$ they will supply them to any anti-Western country with Iran top of the list where both countries have always worked closely together on nuke and ICBM development?  It will make Obama's nuke deal with Iran redundant.

2. Trump tonight repeated Obama very bad, very damaging, FP mistake where he drew a red line in Syria over chemical weapons and then failed to act. We now have an old fat president with a funny haircut threatening to nuke a young fat president with a funny haircut and nukes who will test the red line.

Three previous presidents: Clinton, Bush and Obama have all found it easier to kick this difficult to solve DPRK can down the road and it has ended up in the lap of the worst president and administration that the US has ever had to deal with it. There are no good solutions to solving this problem, only some are worse than others. An important lesson is that when politicians appease dictators and kick the decision making can down the road, the problem always, but always, gets much, much, worse.

The world is currently at the most unstable and dangerous phase it has been for a generation or two. If you consider the DPRK problem as an entree, don't worry there are several much worse main courses on their way over the next year or two and I'm not sure any major Western power currently has a good enough set of politicians or government to deal with them. 

[Varche]

Strike on Guam? I dare say the US would have a fair chance of shooting it down,not so sure they have the ability to tackle missile(s) sent elsewhere. No star wars defence shield .

Your points 1 and 2 are indeed grim. Satanic state would have the money to obtain nuclear bombs and use them. 

[BazaJT]

On the face of it Guam seems a strange choice of target,still I suppose someone must have a reason for picking the place.

[LC0112G]

On the face of it Guam seems a strange choice of target,still I suppose someone must have a reason for picking the place.

It's the base where any strike against NK is likely to originate from. Guam and Diego Garcia both have the facilities to host Stealth Bombers. They're effectively immobile aircraft carriers in the Indian Ocean. 

[Sir Tigger KC]

On the face of it Guam seems a strange choice of target,still I suppose someone must have a reason for picking the place.

It's the base where any strike against NK is likely to originate from. Guam and Diego Garcia both have the facilities to host Stealth Bombers. They're effectively immobile aircraft carriers in the Indian Ocean.

I have thought that they'd be well equipped to deal with any incoming missile strike. 

[Mister Rog]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-40871416

Redneck America will at this moment be hollerin' " Godammit y'all, we aint gonna let some goddam chinky guy threaten us like that, I say we nuke 'em"

Nukes ? Of course not. But I just wouldn't be surpised if something happened. Much will depend on how China would react. 

[aaronjb]

As someone sent me earlier: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets-idUSKBN1AO2OP

Do you think the Chinese markets went up because the market believes China would win in a war against the US? Maybe..

[Shackeng]

On the face of it Guam seems a strange choice of target,still I suppose someone must have a reason for picking the place.

I believe it is from where the B1 bombers operated that have been showing the flag over Korea recently.

[LC0112G]

I have thought that they'd be well equipped to deal with any incoming missile strike. 

The technology isn't well tested though. ICBM warheads come in at hypersonic speeds and you can't be confident that you'll hit every one every time. You won't have time to take a second shot at any you missed first time around. And if just one gets through.....

[STEMO]

.......goodbye Guam.....goodbye Korea, North and South.

[STEMO]

I seriously hope that Trump backs his rhetoric up. If he backslides now, Hoo Flung Dung will laugh his little cock off, and see it as a way to do exactly what he wants. Imagine if he is allowed to develop a full nuclear arsenal...the world would be constantly living on a knife edge.

[Lizzie Zoom]

Strike on Guam? I dare say the US would have a fair chance of shooting it down,not so sure they have the ability to tackle missile(s) sent elsewhere. No star wars defence shield .

Your points 1 and 2 are indeed grim. Satanic state would have the money to obtain nuclear bombs and use them.

Strike on Guam?

That may be exactly what Trump and the USA want.  When Japan was flexing it's muscles in 1941 we know the US knew a strike on their Pacific forces was going to take place.  The conspiracy historians amoungst us, which includes me, believe Roosevelt and Churchill were just waiting for such a strike, and indeed, before the event, knew it would be on Pearl.  That would, and of course did, bring the isolationist US into the fight against Nazi Germany, and then the Axis forces in their entirety.  Result!

Trump means "Fire and fury, with power that the World has never seen before", and is just waiting for the excuse to strike at the political centre of N.Korea. Trump is no usual President, and will not conform to usual diplomatic practice.  He knows that only delays the inevitable, and has no teeth anyway.  I abhor war, but sometimes/ often in history a early warring strike is far better than pussy footing around that only leads to a greater conflict. This is such an example.

Put on your tin hats, it is going to be a rocky ride!

[Mister Rog]

Strike on Guam? I dare say the US would have a fair chance of shooting it down,not so sure they have the ability to tackle missile(s) sent elsewhere. No star wars defence shield .

Your points 1 and 2 are indeed grim. Satanic state would have the money to obtain nuclear bombs and use them.

Strike on Guam?

That may be exactly what Trump and the USA want.  When Japan was flexing it's muscles in 1941 we know the US knew a strike on their Pacific forces was going to take place.  The conspiracy historians amoungst us, which includes me, believe Roosevelt and Churchill were just waiting for such a strike, and indeed, before the event, knew it would be on Pearl.  That would, and of course did, bring the isolationist US into the fight against Nazi Germany, and then the Axis forces in their entirety.  Result!

Trump means "Fire and fury, with power that the World has never seen before", and is just waiting for the excuse to strike at the political centre of N.Korea. Trump is no usual President, and will not conform to usual diplomatic practice.  He knows that only delays the inevitable, and has no teeth anyway.  I abhor war, but sometimes/ often in history a early warring strike is far better than pussy footing around that only leads to a greater conflict. This is such an example.

Put on your tin hats, it is going to be a rocky ride!

He needs to have his bottom smacked and sent to bed without any tea. 

[Rods2]

Strike on Guam? I dare say the US would have a fair chance of shooting it down,not so sure they have the ability to tackle missile(s) sent elsewhere. No star wars defence shield .

Your points 1 and 2 are indeed grim. Satanic state would have the money to obtain nuclear bombs and use them.

Their short and medium missiles can reach Guam and currently, it will almost certainly be a biological/chemical attack. DPRK missiles are not very reliable where they seem to have major quality control issues and we don't know what 'control extras' the CIA/SVG/Chinese may have added or will add to their software.

The latest generation THAAD is building a good test record on high altitude ballistic missile/ICBM test intercepts having destroyed 15 out of 15. In a nuclear exchange, any you can destroy is always a better outcome than none. Even using nukes to take out nukes despite the fallout which is what the Russian Moscow anti-missile missile defenses use. Major power ICBM's have multiple, independently targetted warheads with decoys to make sure some/all get through.