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[STEMO]

How many petrol stations were there 100 years ago?


EVs were about 7% of the new car market in 2020, and are expected to be 16% in 2021. Which will be more than diesels. Those numbers are only going to increase in the next 9 years.


That will, if it hasn't already, mean that chargers will become a market that's worth spending a lot of money on. They are considerably easier to install than a filling station

You do talk shite sometimes 

[STEMO]

I underestimated, it's one for every 52

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-10258457/Electric-car-sales-accelerating-far-faster-public-chargers.html

[Field Marshal Dr. Opti]

I'd imagine that prices of good low mileage, second hand cars will rise steeply after 2030. 

Like used sports mopeds (capable of 60 MPH ) in 1977, when new mopeds where restricted to 35 MPH.

[Field Marshal Dr. Opti]

I'd imagine that prices of good low mileage, second hand cars will rise steeply after 2030. 

Why, who would buy one? It's much more likely that the people who normally buy a dealer trade-in or other newish used car every few years will just hold on to their existing, hard to replace car for some time. My prediction is that the price of most used cars will drop dramatically, except for the distress purchase cheapies.


Just look at what the introduction of the LEZ did to used truck prices in the south east; a friend who was retiring had to sell his fleet in the north to get anywhere near what they had been worth only six months earlier, yet deals on new vehicles disappeared overnight.

Maybe you're right Nick. 

Maybe electric cars will come along in leaps and bounds in the next 9 years and they will be as good, if not better than an ICE car and the prices of a new EV will be comparable to a new ICE car.  Maybe not. 

Maybe the government and power companies will install sufficient generating capacity to cope with the massive increase in demand for electricity in the next 9 years. Maybe not. 

My prediction that we will be nowhere near ready for a mass switch to EV's in 2030, and all the people who would have normally bought a new car, will hang on to their current ICE car or will buy a young low mileage second hand ICE car instead. Hence increased demand for second hand ICE cars and and increase in prices due to a dwindling supply of good cars. 

For every 42 EV's sold this year there was one additional public charging point.

Half of which don't work.

[Field Marshal Dr. Opti]

I'd imagine that prices of good low mileage, second hand cars will rise steeply after 2030. 

Why, who would buy one? It's much more likely that the people who normally buy a dealer trade-in or other newish used car every few years will just hold on to their existing, hard to replace car for some time. My prediction is that the price of most used cars will drop dramatically, except for the distress purchase cheapies.


Just look at what the introduction of the LEZ did to used truck prices in the south east; a friend who was retiring had to sell his fleet in the north to get anywhere near what they had been worth only six months earlier, yet deals on new vehicles disappeared overnight.

The same type of people who pay through the nose for a nice old pocket watch, or grandfather clock now. Despite the fact there is no real practical use for either any more. We just need to look at our phone if we want to know what the time is.
Its about the appreciation of nice quality items for their own sake, nostalgia, and of course investment.
When things become scarce, but people still appreciate them , values rise.

Albitz has a point.

Beautiful classic cars won't suddenly become junk in 2030.

They will probably become even more desirable as time goes by and numbers decrease.

[olm]

I'd imagine that prices of good low mileage, second hand cars will rise steeply after 2030. 

As will the cost of petrol
Oh wait 
it already is doing 

That is the question. High fuel prices, emission taxes, traffic bans ...

[dave the builder]

I'd imagine that prices of good low mileage, second hand cars will rise steeply after 2030. 

As will the cost of petrol
Oh wait 
it already is doing 

That is the question. High fuel prices, emission taxes, traffic bans ...

We are driving round in dirty, petrol guzzling ,Polluting ,19 year old cars though 



Oh wait 
ZERO Carbon monoxide first pass ,Zero Hydrocarbons , ZERO Carbon monoxide at idle
that's the figures for the last 4 MOTs ,since I took ownership 
£340 RFL because of all that pollution 

[Nick W]

Albitz has a point.

Beautiful classic cars won't suddenly become junk in 2030.

They will probably become even more desirable as time goes by and numbers decrease.

Even ordinary cars won't suddenly become junk. But they will depreciate quicker than we are used to. Bear in mind that by 2030 a lot more of the 3 to 10 year old used car market will be EVs compared to now, which will further reduce the value of ICE.


What will happen is that even older cars will become increasingly niche items just like say 60's and even earlier cars are now. The real market is when middle aged men(it's almost all men) have some spare cash to buy the cars from their childhoods - at 51 that's late 60's and 70's for me, which explains the recent high cost of Escorts - so the even older cars fall out of favour and the survivors tend to stabilise or even drop in value.

[Field Marshal Dr. Opti]

Albitz has a point.

Beautiful classic cars won't suddenly become junk in 2030.

They will probably become even more desirable as time goes by and numbers decrease.

Even ordinary cars won't suddenly become junk. But they will depreciate quicker than we are used to. Bear in mind that by 2030 a lot more of the 3 to 10 year old used car market will be EVs compared to now, which will further reduce the value of ICE.


What will happen is that even older cars will become increasingly niche items just like say 60's and even earlier cars are now. The real market is when middle aged men(it's almost all men) have some spare cash to buy the cars from their childhoods - at 51 that's late 60's and 70's for me, which explains the recent high cost of Escorts - so the even older cars fall out of favour and the survivors tend to stabilise or even drop in value.

Prices for a MK1 Escort twin cam or RS 1600 are crazy. I've seen £50,000 and above.

Even once ubiquitous dross like the Austin/Morris 1100/1300  and Cortina MK3 can fetch £10,000 for a good example.

[Field Marshal Dr. Opti]

Albitz has a point.

Beautiful classic cars won't suddenly become junk in 2030.

They will probably become even more desirable as time goes by and numbers decrease.

Even ordinary cars won't suddenly become junk. But they will depreciate quicker than we are used to. Bear in mind that by 2030 a lot more of the 3 to 10 year old used car market will be EVs compared to now, which will further reduce the value of ICE.


What will happen is that even older cars will become increasingly niche items just like say 60's and even earlier cars are now. The real market is when middle aged men(it's almost all men) have some spare cash to buy the cars from their childhoods - at 51 that's late 60's and 70's for me, which explains the recent high cost of Escorts - so the even older cars fall out of favour and the survivors tend to stabilise or even drop in value.

Speaking of old cars from our childhood.....I still lust after a TR6.....Elan sprint......Maserati Bora and Ferrari Daytona.

[Mr Skrunts]

Speaking of old cars from our childhood.....I still lust after a TR6.....Elan sprint......Maserati Bora and Ferrari Daytona.

I had a mate who put a Rover V8 in his TR6 and it sounded awsome.

Another mate had an Elan & tret it better than all of his kids.

Only place I ever saw a Bora was in a car show room

One of my old bosses had a Daytona, I got taken for a ride in it on th M1 and realised it had bends in it that you had to slow down for.


The good old days eh!!

[TheBoy]

In reality, its rust that kills Omegas.  So very much a Northern Europe problem.

Southern European Omegas could have a long life

[Field Marshal Dr. Opti]

Speaking of old cars from our childhood.....I still lust after a TR6.....Elan sprint......Maserati Bora and Ferrari Daytona.

I had a mate who put a Rover V8 in his TR6 and it sounded awsome.

Another mate had an Elan & tret it better than all of his kids.

Only place I ever saw a Bora was in a car show room

One of my old bosses had a Daytona, I got taken for a ride in it on th M1 and realised it had bends in it that you had to slow down for.


The good old days eh!!

I could add a few more, Skruntie.

V12 E-Type
Gilbern Invader
AC 428
Lamborghini Espada.

[johnnydog]

Albitz has a point.

Beautiful classic cars won't suddenly become junk in 2030.

They will probably become even more desirable as time goes by and numbers decrease.

Even ordinary cars won't suddenly become junk. But they will depreciate quicker than we are used to. Bear in mind that by 2030 a lot more of the 3 to 10 year old used car market will be EVs compared to now, which will further reduce the value of ICE.


What will happen is that even older cars will become increasingly niche items just like say 60's and even earlier cars are now. The real market is when middle aged men(it's almost all men) have some spare cash to buy the cars from their childhoods - at 51 that's late 60's and 70's for me, which explains the recent high cost of Escorts - so the even older cars fall out of favour and the survivors tend to stabilise or even drop in value.

Prices for a MK1 Escort twin cam or RS 1600 are crazy. I've seen £50,000 and above.

Even once ubiquitous dross like the Austin/Morris 1100/1300  and Cortina MK3 can fetch £10,000 for a good example.

Talking of the value of classic Fords, which have always been relatively high in recent years, along with the price of original nos parts - how about this for a low mileage Cortina....

https://youtu.be/Rg8kdhXKF5w

[cam.in.head]

wow thats a find for someone. will probably go for a good price.
shame its been badly stored over the years and has a hell of a lot of surface rust which will be present everywhere .might not even have a free engine ? but like he says its a brand new unused old stock car. where would you find another ? what would you do with it ? totally strip it and blast the shell and repaint or leave "as is" ?