Omega Owners Forum
Chat Area => General Discussion Area => Topic started by: aaronjb on 08 September 2013, 13:49:15
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http://pro.moneyweek.com/myk-eob-tpr-cut/PMYKP905/?utm_source=taboola&h=true
After watching all of it yesterday I began to realise I might have just watched little more than a very long advert for MoneyWeek, but.. I'm sure our resident economists can pick it apart .. or corroborate it..
[edit] The title should have read 'economists' of course..
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We are doomed , doomed I say.
Only Rods2 has the answer which I suspect will include the word inflation ;D ;D
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Seen that (or read the transcript) a while back. Just another set of predictions that may or may happen. And, as you say, a very long advert for money week.
Thats not to say it doesn't put the shits right up you like. ;D
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Thats not to say it doesn't put the shits right up you like. ;D
I was practically reaching for the razor blades by three quarters in! ;D
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Fascinating and very thought provoking! :y :y :y :y
For some time now I have been convinced that capitalism, at least as we know it, cannot survive. My only problem is that I do not know how long it will be before the big collapse. It will happen, as the film rightly implies. What shape it will take, who knows; well I certainly have not got the knowledge to even guess. But it will happen.
The film heavily implies we can no longer afford the Welfare State. That has been clear for some time, and Cameron is working on that one. At Uni it was often considered that the Welfare State as created in 1948 is no longer viable, or even perhaps desirable, from a state point of view. John Gray's(2002) book False Dawn Granta Books London is considered by political students and academics as a correct appraisal of the condition that global capitalism is in; a delusion that the liberals amongst us must take notice of.
Get ready for the lights going out, and not just for the reasons of a lack of generating power!
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We are doomed , doomed I say.
Only Rods2 has the answer which I suspect will include the word inflation ;D ;D
+1 :(
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Capitalism will survive. It will change and adapt but it will always survive.As long as human nature compels people to buy things and sell them for more than they paid(especially if their survival depends on it) there will be some form of capitalism.
The only other system humans have tried on a large scale is socialism.That has failed in every attempt,because it goes against the grain of human nature.Its virtually dead globally and will never return.
The welfare state,in its current form wont (and shouldn't) survive.Its unaffordable,unsustainable,and also goes against the grain of human nature - striving to survive and then striving to better ones lot.
Cameron isn't working on it at all tbh. He would just like his potential supporters to believe he is (same as immigration).Its getting bigger all the time,and becoming ever more unaffordable. They are tinkering around the edges,but not attempting to make any serious inroads into the problem,due to political cowardice and a distinct lack of principle or conviction
Ditto the NHS. It cant survive in its present form,but there isn't a politician in Westminster with the balls to grasp that huge nettle.
All imo of course. :)
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Capitalism will survive. It will change and adapt but it will always survive.As long as human nature compels people to buy things and sell them for more than they paid(especially if their survival depends on it) there will be some form of capitalism.
The only other system humans have tried on a large scale is socialism.That has failed in every attempt,because it goes against the grain of human nature.Its virtually dead globally and will never return.
The welfare state,in its current form wont (and shouldn't) survive.Its unaffordable,unsustainable,and also goes against the grain of human nature - striving to survive and then striving to better ones lot.
Cameron isn't working on it at all tbh. He would just like his potential supporters to believe he is (same as immigration).Its getting bigger all the time,and becoming ever more unaffordable. They are tinkering around the edges,but not attempting to make any serious inroads into the problem,due to political cowardice and a distinct lack of principle or conviction
Ditto the NHS. It cant survive in its present form,but there isn't a politician in Westminster with the balls to grasp that huge nettle.
All imo of course. :)
+1
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Just read elsewhere:
Capitalism is the unequal distribution of wealth.
Socialism is the equal distribution of misery.
;) ;)
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Just read elsewhere:
Capitalism is the unequal distribution of wealth.
Socialism is the equal distribution of misery.
;) ;)
You old cynic, Nick. ;)
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I put the link up for this on OOF about 12 months ago. Yes, it is a big Money Week advert, but is is unfortunately all too true not only for this country but also for all Western economies with a pyramid pay now hope to get benefits later system, with other people paying in to fund your retirement and public services. I was looking yesterday at an article on US state employee pension and medical cover. Pensions are normally projected at a return of 8% per year, but for the last 18 years after inflation this has been just 1.8%, so the longer it is projected at 8% the bigger the shortfall and the more taxpayers are going to have to pay up or the system will have to be reformed (smaller government employee pensions). The figures for the US are just as ugly as ours.
Yes, our welfare state is unaffordable, so it is going to have to change. Personally, I like the Hong Kong and Singapore system where it is compulsory to pay 20% of what you earn into your own personal welfare fund for health cover, unemployment cover and your pension, part of it goes into an insurance scheme, so if you are unlucky and your scheme runs out of money are still covered. Such an approach has really benefitted both countries where the population are much richer than us. :y :y :y
Our system is a pyramid system that relies on more new entrants paying in than those taking out, demographics means it is unsustainable and this will apply in the future where world population growth is slowing down. I suspect when the UK Government runs out of money, pensioners are going to have to take a large part of the pain through reduced (abolished?) state pensions, and very long NHS waiting lists, which will mean if you want timely treatment going private. Mass migration will also not be a long term answer whereas the UK is get poorer and developing countries get richer, then it will be less attractive to migrate here. Anyway we can't fit in an infinite number of people. :o
An aging demographic means more retired people, this means less people have wealth creating economic outputs, so your economic growth goes down, or becomes negative, so this is not an escape route. It will be toughest on retired pensioners that are too old, ill or infirm to work to make more money, so make sure you have a strategy for this as it is very likely to happen in the next 10 years. :(
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I enjoyed watching this, Aaron :y.......in a perverse sort of way you understand. ;D ;D
Overly simplistic perhaps, but there was more than a grain of truth in it's content.
I believe that one of the biggest problems for the welfare state is keeping the old age pension system going. Far more taxpayer money is spent on the state pension and it's added benefits, such as free TV licence and winter fuel payments, than is spent on the unemployed.
The pensioner to taxpayer ratio is getting worse each year as we all live longer and more healthy lives. :-\
I can see a time when we have more old people than people of working age. Then the shit will really hit the fan. :(
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I enjoyed watching this too. Thanks. :y
Is it inflation that will push interest rates up? I wasn't too clear on this point.
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I enjoyed watching this too. Thanks. :y
Is it inflation that will push interest rates up? I wasn't too clear on this point.
Don't worry your little head about it, bint. Just get the dishes washed. ;D
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I enjoyed watching this too. Thanks. :y
Is it inflation that will push interest rates up? I wasn't too clear on this point.
Don't worry your little head about it, bint. Just get the dishes washed. ;D
I've already done them! ;D
Seriously though, I did economics at university and I thought that this is what would push them up?
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I enjoyed watching this too. Thanks. :y
Is it inflation that will push interest rates up? I wasn't too clear on this point.
Don't worry your little head about it, bint. Just get the dishes washed. ;D
I take a passing interest in all of this stuff, but if I try to go too deep, I get a headache and go all depressed like. Ignorance really is bliss. :-*
I've already done them! ;D
Seriously though, I did economics at university and I thought that this is what would push them up?
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I enjoyed watching this too. Thanks. :y
Is it inflation that will push interest rates up? I wasn't too clear on this point.
Don't worry your little head about it, bint. Just get the dishes washed. ;D
.......and the ironing won't do itself either. ;) :-* :-* :-*
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I enjoyed watching this too. Thanks. :y
Is it inflation that will push interest rates up? I wasn't too clear on this point.
Don't worry your little head about it, bint. Just get the dishes washed. ;D
I take a passing interest in all of this stuff, but if I try to go too deep, I get a headache and go all depressed like. Ignorance really is bliss. :-*
I've already done them! ;D
Seriously though, I did economics at university and I thought that this is what would push them up?
Oops. Posted in the middle......again :-[
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I enjoyed watching this too. Thanks. :y
Is it inflation that will push interest rates up? I wasn't too clear on this point.
Don't worry your little head about it, bint. Just get the dishes washed. ;D
I take a passing interest in all of this stuff, but if I try to go too deep, I get a headache and go all depressed like. Ignorance really is bliss. :-*
I've already done them! ;D
Seriously though, I did economics at university and I thought that this is what would push them up?
Oops. Posted in the middle......again :-[
That seems to be an age thing........ ;) ;)
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Such a load of patronising crap economics that I couldn't listen to it all. Also a very blatant rip off of Adam Curtis's style, for anyone who watched the excellent 'Power of Nightmares' or 'The Trap'.
This advert plays to the worst middle class paranoia and is based on a load of lies, have a look at the facts:
(http://i1321.photobucket.com/albums/u546/dbdbx/Image1_zps89b87051.jpg)
It also takes no account of the immense improvements in technology and production.
Capitalist will end, simply because it contains the seeds of its own destruction- as a Capitalist how can you keep making money if you keep screwing the 99%? Who will buy your goods? How Will You Get Robots to Buy Cars? http://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/11/16/robots-buy-cars/ (http://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/11/16/robots-buy-cars/)
One irritating example - the predicted run on the banks. Northern Rock only happened because that idiot Brown and the BoE bureacucrats couldn't have a simple and fast compensation scheme. Now there is one, and the first £85K of anyones savings with a single bank is guaranteed, who would bother queuing outside a bank for hours? To say the government couldn't pay the compensation is stupid, the government can just print the stuff! (and they levy a fee for their trouble every year from the banks)
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Such a load of patronising crap economics that I couldn't listen to it all. Also a very blatant rip off of Adam Curtis's style, for anyone who watched the excellent 'Power of Nightmares' or 'The Trap'.
This advert plays to the worst middle class paranoia and is based on a load of lies, have a look at the facts:
(http://i1321.photobucket.com/albums/u546/dbdbx/Image1_zps89b87051.jpg)
It also takes no account of the immense improvements in technology and production.
Capitalist will end, simply because it contains the seeds of its own destruction- as a Capitalist how can you keep making money if you keep screwing the 99%? Who will buy your goods? How Will You Get Robots to Buy Cars? http://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/11/16/robots-buy-cars/ (http://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/11/16/robots-buy-cars/)
Not so sure on that one dbdb.
The UK's National Debt in 1945 was £3 billion. Today in 2013 it is £1.5 Trillion. Now I may be wrong, and no doubt our resident financial guru, Rods2, will put us right, but I think the current percent of National Debt v. GDP is much higher than in 1945. ;)
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Not so sure on that one dbdb.
The UK's National Debt in 1945 was £3 billion. Today in 2013 it is £1.5 Trillion.
£3 billion in 1945 is £110 billion now but GDP has gone up too, the figure to watch is debt as a %age of GDP. 100% is not bad I suspect some individuals here have debts >1000% of their annual income when you include mortgages.
Now I may be wrong, and no doubt our resident financial guru, Rods2, will put us right, but I think the current percent of National Debt v. GDP is much higher than in 1945. ;)
Here are the latest OECD figures, it's now up to 109% (compared to 240% in 1945): http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/government-debt_gov-debt-table-en (http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/government-debt_gov-debt-table-en). The recent rise is because GDP has been clobbered I think.
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Not so sure on that one dbdb.
The UK's National Debt in 1945 was £3 billion. Today in 2013 it is £1.5 Trillion.
£3 billion in 1945 is £110 billion now but GDP has gone up too, the figure to watch is debt as a %age of GDP. 100% is not bad I suspect some individuals here have debts >1000% of their annual income when you include mortgages.
Now I may be wrong, and no doubt our resident financial guru, Rods2, will put us right, but I think the current percent of National Debt v. GDP is much higher than in 1945. ;)
Here are the latest OECD figures, it's now up to 109% (compared to 240% in 1945): http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/government-debt_gov-debt-table-en (http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/government-debt_gov-debt-table-en). The recent rise is because GDP has been clobbered I think.
Thanks! :y :y
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There are a number of differences between the past when we had high debts and now. At the end of WWI and WWII much of the debt was in war bonds which governments delayed paying back until the price was right through inflation. With WWI debt they did a forced cut on the interest rate in 1932 from 5% to 3.5%. Technically this has been considered by some a default, but it is questionable where the Government had the right to refinance them at anytime. At the end of WWI and WWII our demographics and low welfare spending were very different to what they are now.
There are currently several elephants in the current room. Off balance sheet debts which includes the refinancing of the banks, PFI, future government and state pension commitments, the unwinding of QE, especially where the current Government nicked the interest, which had been put aside to cover losses, which must be painful where bond prices have dropped significantly of late and of course demographics.
The chart below shows how fast the Government's bill for pensions is rising from £129.6bn in 2012 to an estimated £149.6 in 2015, and this is also going to put the amount that old people are going to consume of the NHS budget up, where old people need more care, treatment and drugs.
http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/uk_budget_detail_13bt12012n_0040#ukgs303 (http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/uk_budget_detail_13bt12012n_0040#ukgs303)
Using OECD standard for the figures the UK debt is currently about 110% of GDP, but the worry is that our deficit went up slightly last year at £120bn. The chancellor is relying on growth and inflation to bring this down, if he doesn't get the growth then he will use plan B of higher inflation which is stealing our wealth by stealth. Once your debt to GDP ratio is above 100% then economic options tend to start to get much more painful.
Of course whatever the difficulties, society will survive, like it has in Greece, but that does not mean life will be pleasant for a much bigger percentage of the population.
Kate you are right higher inflation normally means higher interest rates, where holders will look at the post inflation return and tend to sell UK Gilts to invest in other country's sovereign bonds or other things that offer a better return. UK Gilt prices will drop, pushing up the yield, which is what is happening now. You also tend to get yields rising as an economy recovers from a recession, where holders sell them to invest in the growing economy in the expectation of a better return. As the economy recovers the £375bn of QE money sloshing around in the system is adding and will continue to add to inflationary pressures, so there are Gilt investor's concerns here along with the amount of debt, where we having a history of using high inflation to bring them under control.
Socialist and Communist like to continually write off capitalism but history has proved that it is a much better driver of innovation, allocation of capital and wealth creation, compared to any other system that has been tried, hence the failure of the Soviet Union, communist China where it was a case of starve or adopt capitalism. The two countries that currently embrace communism North Korea and Cuba struggle to feed themselves and the populace have very low standards of living. History has also shown that communism and liberty and human rights are mutually exclusive. All of our living standards, health and life span have constantly risen since the capitalist led industrial revolution.
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The two countries that currently embrace communism North Korea and Cuba struggle to feed themselves and the populace have very low standards of livingDecades of blockades and sanctions haven't helped though either.
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The two countries that currently embrace communism North Korea and Cuba struggle to feed themselves and the populace have very low standards of living.
Cuba is a third world country, don't expect to find people living in luxury, but:
Infant mortality:
Cuba 4.76 deaths per 1,000 live births
USA 5.9 deaths per 1,000 live births
(2013 figures from the CIA World Factbook)
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The two countries that currently embrace communism North Korea and Cuba struggle to feed themselves and the populace have very low standards of living.
Cuba is a third world country, don't expect to find people living in luxury, but:
Infant mortality:
Cuba 4.76 deaths per 1,000 live births
USA 5.9 deaths per 1,000 live births
(2013 figures from the CIA World Factbook)
No surprise there with the drug taking problems in the US. UK is 4.50 and the lowest 10 are: France 3.34, Italy 3.33, Iceland 3.17, Macau 3.15, Hong Kong 2.89, Sweden 2.73, Singapore 2.59, Bermuda 2.47, Japan 2.17, Monaco 1.89 all from the CIA factbook.
Around 2 per 1,000 is probably as low as you can get due to death by natural causes, many of which can't be explained.
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The two countries that currently embrace communism North Korea and Cuba struggle to feed themselves and the populace have very low standards of living.
Cuba is a third world country, don't expect to find people living in luxury, but:
Infant mortality:
Cuba 4.76 deaths per 1,000 live births
USA 5.9 deaths per 1,000 live births
(2013 figures from the CIA World Factbook)
No surprise there with the drug taking problems in the US.
Highest Drug use by Country Statistics
Country Substance Total Number of Addicts (approx.) Per Capita
Iran Heroin 95,000,00 14.32%
United Kingdom Alcohol 81,3000 13.65%
France Prescription pills 85,000,0 13.2%
Slovakian Inhalants 7,000,0 13.01%
Russia Alcohol 100,000 7.1%
Afghanistan Heroin 24,3000 6.9%
Canada Pot 22,3000 6.4%
United States Prescription pills 192,9000 6.2%
Brazil Oxi 84,3000 4.29%
Mexico Meth 14,1000 3.9%