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[aaronjb]

http://pro.moneyweek.com/myk-eob-tpr-cut/PMYKP905/?utm_source=taboola&h=true

After watching all of it yesterday I began to realise I might have just watched little more than a very long advert for MoneyWeek, but.. I'm sure our resident economists can pick it apart .. or corroborate it..

[edit] The title should have read 'economists' of course..

[Varche]

We are doomed , doomed I say.

Only Rods2 has the answer which I suspect will include the word inflation

[MR MISTER]

Seen that (or read the transcript) a while back. Just another set of predictions that may or may happen. And, as you say, a very long advert for money week.

Thats not to say it doesn't put the shits right up you like.

[aaronjb]

Thats not to say it doesn't put the shits right up you like.

I was practically reaching for the razor blades by three quarters in!

[Lizzie_Zoom]

Fascinating and very thought provoking!

For some time now I have been convinced that capitalism, at least as we know it, cannot survive.  My only problem is that I do not know how long it will be before the big collapse.  It will happen, as the film rightly implies.  What shape it will take, who knows; well I certainly have not got the knowledge to even guess.  But it will happen.

The film heavily implies we can no longer afford the Welfare State.  That has been clear for some time, and Cameron is working on that one.  At Uni it was often considered that the Welfare State as created in 1948 is no longer viable, or even perhaps desirable, from a state point of view.  John Gray's(2002) book False Dawn Granta Books London is considered by political students and academics as a correct appraisal of the condition that global capitalism is in; a delusion that the liberals amongst us must take notice of.

Get ready for the lights going out, and not just for the reasons of a lack of generating power!

[omega3000]

We are doomed , doomed I say.

Only Rods2 has the answer which I suspect will include the word inflation

+1 

[albitz]

Capitalism will survive. It will change and adapt but it will always survive.As long as human nature compels people to buy things and sell them for more than they paid(especially if their survival depends on it) there will be some form of capitalism.
The only other system humans have tried on a large scale is socialism.That has failed in every attempt,because it goes against the grain of human nature.Its virtually dead globally and will never return.
The welfare state,in its current form wont (and shouldn't) survive.Its unaffordable,unsustainable,and also goes against the grain of human nature - striving to survive and then striving to better ones lot.
Cameron isn't working on it at all tbh. He would just like his potential supporters to believe he is (same as immigration).Its getting bigger all the time,and becoming ever more unaffordable. They are tinkering around the edges,but not attempting to make any serious inroads into the problem,due to political cowardice and a distinct lack of principle or conviction
Ditto the NHS. It cant survive in its present form,but there isn't a politician in Westminster with the balls to grasp that huge nettle.
All imo of course.

[Varche]

Capitalism will survive. It will change and adapt but it will always survive.As long as human nature compels people to buy things and sell them for more than they paid(especially if their survival depends on it) there will be some form of capitalism.
The only other system humans have tried on a large scale is socialism.That has failed in every attempt,because it goes against the grain of human nature.Its virtually dead globally and will never return.
The welfare state,in its current form wont (and shouldn't) survive.Its unaffordable,unsustainable,and also goes against the grain of human nature - striving to survive and then striving to better ones lot.
Cameron isn't working on it at all tbh. He would just like his potential supporters to believe he is (same as immigration).Its getting bigger all the time,and becoming ever more unaffordable. They are tinkering around the edges,but not attempting to make any serious inroads into the problem,due to political cowardice and a distinct lack of principle or conviction
Ditto the NHS. It cant survive in its present form,but there isn't a politician in Westminster with the balls to grasp that huge nettle.
All imo of course.

+1

[Nickbat]

Just read elsewhere:

Capitalism is the unequal distribution of wealth.
Socialism is the equal distribution of misery.

 

[Field Marshal Dr. Opti]

Just read elsewhere:

Capitalism is the unequal distribution of wealth.
Socialism is the equal distribution of misery.

 

You old cynic, Nick.

[Rods2]

I put the link up for this on OOF about 12 months ago. Yes, it is a big Money Week advert, but is is unfortunately all too true not only for this country but also for all Western economies with a pyramid pay now hope to get benefits later system, with other people paying in to fund your retirement and public services. I was looking yesterday at an article on US state employee pension and medical cover. Pensions are normally projected at a return of 8% per year, but for the last 18 years after inflation this has been just 1.8%, so the longer it is projected at 8% the bigger the shortfall and the more taxpayers are going to have to pay up or the system will have to be reformed (smaller government employee pensions). The figures for the US are just as ugly as ours.

Yes, our welfare state is unaffordable, so it is going to have to change. Personally, I like the Hong Kong and Singapore system where it is compulsory to pay 20% of what you earn into your own personal welfare fund for health cover, unemployment cover and your pension, part of it goes into an insurance scheme, so if you are unlucky and your scheme runs out of money are still covered. Such an approach has really benefitted both countries where the population are much richer than us.

Our system is a pyramid system that relies on more new entrants paying in than those taking out, demographics means it is unsustainable and this will apply in the future where world population growth is slowing down. I suspect when the UK Government runs out of money, pensioners are going to have to take a large part of the pain through reduced (abolished?) state pensions, and very long NHS waiting lists, which will mean if you want timely treatment going private. Mass migration will also not be a long term answer whereas the UK is get poorer and developing countries get richer, then it will be less attractive to migrate here. Anyway we can't fit in an infinite number of people. 

An aging demographic means more retired people, this means less people have wealth creating economic outputs, so your economic growth goes down, or becomes negative, so this is not an escape route. It will be toughest on retired pensioners that are too old, ill or infirm to work to make more money, so make sure you have a strategy for this as it is very likely to happen in the next 10 years. 

[Field Marshal Dr. Opti]

I enjoyed watching this, Aaron .......in a perverse sort of way you understand.

Overly simplistic perhaps, but there was more than a grain of truth in it's content.

I believe that one of the biggest problems for the welfare state is keeping the old age pension system going. Far more taxpayer money is spent on the state pension and it's added benefits, such as free TV licence and winter fuel payments, than is spent on the unemployed.

The pensioner to taxpayer ratio is getting worse each year as we all live longer and more healthy lives.

I can see a time when we have more old people than people of working age. Then the shit will really hit the fan.

   

[Kate]

I enjoyed watching this too. Thanks.

Is it inflation that will push interest rates up? I wasn't too clear on this point.

[MR MISTER]

I enjoyed watching this too. Thanks.

Is it inflation that will push interest rates up? I wasn't too clear on this point.

Don't worry your little head about it, bint. Just get the dishes washed.

[Kate]

I enjoyed watching this too. Thanks.

Is it inflation that will push interest rates up? I wasn't too clear on this point.

Don't worry your little head about it, bint. Just get the dishes washed.

I've already done them!

Seriously though, I did economics at university and I thought that this is what would push them up?