Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Grrrrrr]

Deep breath, and relax ...

[Grrrrrr]

This country had the biggest empire ever known - all built on trade (and a few out of control power hungry maverics like Rhodes in Africa). We bought raw materials cheap and sold finished goods back to the world. The GDP of one county (Lancashire in the 1800s (I think)) was more than the rest of Europe put together.

The EU was setup because Stalin was banging on the wall down Germany's core and half of France was threatening to turn communist. That threat has gone but now it has become a power game for politicians to try and take on the United States.

I think more open policies with developing countries can only help them and ourselves in a more worldwide community if handled correctly.

[albitz]

Read a very interesting report regarding UK exports and how indurty is focusing more attention outside the euro zone and less within due to the poor exchange rate with the Euro.

Lets hope its not too little too late. Should have been done a looooooooooong time ago. Having said that the "export to the EU" figures are fiddled anyway.Much of what the UK exports around the world goes via Rotterdam (for logistical reasons presumably),but what goes from here to Rotterdam on its way to somewhere in the big wide world is included in the figures of exports to the EU - which is rather ludicrous.

[Varche]

Well I saw the owner of a SME on TV the other day. He makes mouldings for the railway industry. He said he would love to export to new markets like Brazil but hadn't a clue how to go about it.

No use asking William Hague, he just says work harder! I think that there is a golden opportunity for government to actually do something for SME's and export. They should grab it. Build trade links with Brazil and maybe even India if possible after all the snubs we have had.

Where are the visionaries and great leaders in this time of crisis?

Has Greece had a judge put in charge so that no one political party is accountable when the decision is made to leave the euro???

[Dishevelled Den]

Has this brought to light the internal flaws in the system?

  The 64000 GR drachma question?



   
How 'they' ever thought that pulling together a disparate bunch of nations - each with their own history of conflict, of opinion about their own level of national importance, of how they, as a sovereign nation, intended to develop and prosper on the continental and world stage - would ever result in anything but chaos – without duplicity, double dealing and sheer manipulation - beats the shit out of me.

Suddenly, the British MSM (including such shining examples of the earnest sagacity we see in the likes of Peston) are beginning to realise that this whole crazy  experiment of political expansion and empire building holds the possibility of going teats up without even closer union to form a centralised legislative government, banking system, legal framework, foreign and defence policy and so on and are beginning to question the sense and validity of this by adding to the wild speculation we are presently seeing on the possible outcome of what is a very fluid situation.

From what I see the opinion expressed by most any example of the MSM one cares to take notice of is about as much use as teats on as bull - given the woeful standard of reporting and investigation evidenced to date; then, matters they choose to examine (in the lust for ratings) have always embraced such important issues as long dead members of the Royal Household, so-called celebrities, footballers, the state of filth evident in some parts of our country in this, a Jubilee year, women exposing what can only be described as grossly distended teats and so on and exhaustingly on, rather than the practical investigative reporting needed to expose the true shambles this country now is as a result of weak government, untrammelled commercialism and a disconnect by many of its citizens from practical reality into a world of narcissistic materialism.

The MSM, their acolytes and self-important pundits, might as well have been pissing into the teeth of a gale for all the good their analysis of this debacle has been to those of us who are tying to get some independent, relevant and well researched information of just what is going on at the moment.

[Nickbat]

Has this brought to light the internal flaws in the system?

  The 64000 GR drachma question?



   
How 'they' ever thought that pulling together a disparate bunch of nations - each with their own history of conflict, of opinion about their own level of national importance, of how they, as a sovereign nation, intended to develop and prosper on the continental and world stage - would ever result in anything but chaos – without duplicity, double dealing and sheer manipulation - beats the shit out of me.

Suddenly, the British MSM (including such shining examples of the earnest sagacity we see in the likes of Peston) are beginning to realise that this whole crazy  experiment of political expansion and empire building holds the possibility of going teats up without even closer union to form a centralised legislative government, banking system, legal framework, foreign and defence policy and so on and are beginning to question the sense and validity of this by adding to the wild speculation we are presently seeing on the possible outcome of what is a very fluid situation.

From what I see the opinion expressed by most any example of the MSM one cares to take notice of is about as much use as teats on as bull - given the woeful standard of reporting and investigation evidenced to date; then, matters they choose to examine (in the lust for ratings) have always embraced such important issues as long dead members of the Royal Household, so-called celebrities, footballers, the state of filth evident in some parts of our country in this, a Jubilee year, women exposing what can only be described as grossly distended teats and so on and exhaustingly on, rather than the practical investigative reporting needed to expose the true shambles this country now is as a result of weak government, untrammelled commercialism and a disconnect by many of its citizens from practical reality into a world of narcissistic materialism.

The MSM, their acolytes and self-important pundits, might as well have been pissing into the teeth of a gale for all the good their analysis of this debacle has been to those of us who are tying to get some independent, relevant and well researched information of just what is going on at the moment.

Having seen this coming a mile off (as my past posts may have indicated) and being in complete agreement with everything you write with regard to the MSM, I am unable to be surprised by any elements of your post, Den. Except, that is, for the bit about "women exposing what can only be described as grossly distended teats". I feel that a link to confirm this assertion is required.     

[Sir Tigger KC]

Greece will leave the Euro-zone immently whilst they have an interim government.  They will hold their elections in June once the initial panic has subsided and the political parties will be able campaign with policies designed to rebuild the country free of dicktats from the so called Troika.... 

[Nickbat]

Greece will leave the Euro-zone immently whilst they have an interim government.  They will hold their elections in June once the initial panic has subsided and the political parties will be able campaign with policies designed to rebuild the country free of dicktats from the so called Troika.... 

Think you may be right, Tigger.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/05/18/uk-delarue-greece-idUKBRE84H0DH20120518

[Allenm]

Well I saw the owner of a SME on TV the other day. He makes mouldings for the railway industry. He said he would love to export to new markets like Brazil but hadn't a clue how to go about it.

No use asking William Hague, he just says work harder! I think that there is a golden opportunity for government to actually do something for SME's and export. They should grab it. Build trade links with Brazil and maybe even India if possible after all the snubs we have had.

Where are the visionaries and great leaders in this time of crisis?

Has Greece had a judge put in charge so that no one political party is accountable when the decision is made to leave the euro???

He might want to contact UKTI then and ask about Passport to Export.  Its a Government service that has been running for years with the express aim of promoting export. 

[Sir Tigger KC]

I've been thinking about Greece this afternoon.....  and I've come up with a theory which might be a little 'out there'.... or maybe not!

Apart from Greece there's been alot of talk about Spain running into trouble recently, having to recapitalise the banks, runs on Bankia, Bankia's shares bombing, 50% youth unemployment, economic recession etc etc  I'm sure that 'The Troika' ie ECB, IMF and the EU Commission (Germany) are poised to bail out Spain should the need arise, but with stringent conditions as they did with Greece, Portugal and Ireland.  The Spanish government will have observed the results of the Troika's austerity conditions in those countries especially Greece!!

They might not fancy that and might just think that being a bigger economy, they can weather the storms of exiting the Euro-zone and returning to the Peseta is a better long term strategy for Spain.... 

So while we're all looking at Greece and talking about the 'Grexit', Spain might just steal a march and it'll be the 'Spexit' that will cause armageddon!!! 

[Grrrrrr]

Not convinced Spain is in such dire straits. Varche is probably in a better place to comment. I think left alone without "investors" playing the market Spain could probably pull through. Also, Spain has done a lot to go with the Euro so I don't think they'll leave in a hurry. Spain is just a side show for hedge funds to make money on at the moment.

Think Italy is the pressure point. If you can stiff Italy then the french banks fail and France will have to disengage. At that stage it is all over bar the shouting.

Could be wrong!

[Sir Tigger KC]

So the I-Texit or the Frexit might yet catch us all out??   

[Varche]

Grrrrr - I hope you are right.

I really do not see what the answer is for Spain. They need to drop wages to maybe 305 of what they are now to regain competiveness against North Europe. Yet prices of food and utilities is now on a par with North Europe. Will they drop? Don't think so. The country has debt so needs austerity to get that down. That means reducing the government spend. The poroblem is here that the Conservative government only controls 17% of the budget ( defence and over seas stuff). All the big spend like Health is controlled by the Regions mostly Socialist. Will they toe the line and decimate the education and health spend? Not much desire there.

Spain is in dire straits but then Britain is too. Unemployment 24% and 50% youth unemployment. Huge national debt but not as big as Britains. The problem here is the bloody banks(my favourite) lent indiscriminately to anyone building or buying homes. Now there is a huge amount of empty housing that will take forever to sell. ( I think Peston said more empty houses here than in the USA). The banks have toxic debt of staggering levels AND took out government loans (invested in Spains debt like fools). Next week two auditor firms are looking at all these toxic debts to ring fence them to new ly created property companies so the banks need less capital to refinance themselves to the new EU rules. Will it work? Can they do it in time before the market kills them? Who knows.

I'll offer 1:2 odds on Greece leaving the euro before end of 2012.
I'll offer 5;1 on Spain leaving the euro before end of 2012 (can't accept bets over 5 euros though)
I'll offer 10:1 on Germany leaving the euro before end of 2013. (again no bets over 5 euros- sorry there is a crisis)

[TheBoy]

I fear for the Greeks. Most people, Greeks included haven't a clue about just how much debt their governments have racked up. When austerity actually kicks in (because mostly hardly anything has actually happened yet) then we will all start squeelling.

I think many UK residents also have no idea - look at the trouble the public sector employees are kicking up...

[Rods2]

If you look at the history of defaulting then, economies start to recover almost immediately, which you can see in several research papers available on the Internet. If anybody is interested I will post the links.

So, to me the most likely scenario is that once Greece goes belly up (and it will be soon) and leaves the Euro there will probably be two to four weeks of turmoil and then they will start to grow where the banks and the economy is flooded by the Greek Central Bank with New Drachmas. They will reduce their interest charges by defaulting massively on all current debt by 75-100% (This will make the last default a few weeks ago look like a kiddies tea party).

Their central bank will provide liquidity that is currently absent to get their wheels of industry turning again, the currency will devalue against the Euro between 40 and 80%, which will make their exports much more competitive and holidays their cheap again (Tourism is 15% of GDP). Yes, there will be an inflation blip from increased import costs and also due to the central bank liquidity of flooding the country with New Drachmas. This is not dissimilar to when we left the ERM on black wednesday.

The end result will be a growing economy and falling unemployment from months 2 or 3 onwards.

This is when the Trokia start bricking it. As the populations of Portugal, Spain, Italy and Ireland say at the polls or in the streets, we want some of that and the Euro countries start to drop like flies, taking France and Belgium with them. The Euro will then consist of a few minor economies and (Latvia, Estonia etc and Germany, the Netherlands and possible Austra.

If I was a EU / Eurozone politician right now, I would be watching the sales of rope and baling wire very closely and getting very nervous every time I walked past a lamp post.