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[Nickbat]

A very good analysis today by Kristen Cooper ( ) of Stratfor of the EU's attempts to create a banking union. She hints (quite rightly, IMHO) that the "solution" will take years to implement and will likely be overtaken by social pressures.

Worth a watch. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=oJ9eNu86Gww

[Dishevelled Den]

 Well - first of all, I'll give Ms Cooper  so  and I do agree with you that this continuous fire fighting approach is bound to run out of water soon.

You have to give Brussels a triple ‘A’ rating at least for continuing to flog the dead horse but this experiment was bound to fail all the same, it just didn't make sense.

[Rods2]

Good to see the politicians are united and fighting economic Armageddon with their personal water pistols. 

(___|___) {____|____} {______|______} (__|__) (_|_) and FA Frau {__________||___________}

[cleggy]

Well - first of all, I'll give Ms Cooper  so  and I do agree with you that this continuous fire fighting approach is bound to run out of water soon.

You have to give Brussels a triple ‘A’ rating at least for continuing to flog the dead horse but this experiment was bound to fail all the same, it just didn't make sense.

Nothing new there then DD, how about a three some with Merkel 

[cem_devecioglu]

Stratfor doesnt have to pay high salaries for those experts.. which I could tell them for free

[Field Marshal Dr. Opti]

It will work, Nick.......just as soon as the new country of Europe is formed along with it's 300,000,000 happy citizens.

[cem_devecioglu]

It will work, Nick.......just as soon as the new country of Europe is formed along with it's 300,000,000 unhappy citizens.

corrected

[Dishevelled Den]

It will work, Nick.......just as soon as the new country of Europe is formed along with it's 300,000,000 happy citizens.

 

That's about as likely as all of those happy citizens eating the same type of food at precisely the same time eventually opening their bowels in perfect unison in the hope that the inevitable shit-storm would have no affect whatsoever on their well-being.

[STMO123]

It will work, Nick.......just as soon as the new country of Europe is formed along with it's 300,000,000 happy citizens.

 

That's about as likely as all of those happy citizens eating the same type of food at precisely the same time eventually opening their bowels in perfect unison in the hope that the inevitable shit-storm would have no affect whatsoever on their well-being.

Subtle, Den, subtle 

[Field Marshal Dr. Opti]

It will work, Nick.......just as soon as the new country of Europe is formed along with it's 300,000,000 happy citizens.

 

That's about as likely as all of those happy citizens eating the same type of food at precisely the same time eventually opening their bowels in perfect unison in the hope that the inevitable shit-storm would have no affect whatsoever on their well-being.

This may well cause a problem with the sanitation system of New Europe.

[Varche]

It won't happen any more than men in black fixing tax rates, laying off public sector workers.

Spain will ask for a bailout on Saturday afternoon. That will in short time turn out not to be enough. More austerity will be necesary to please Merkel. More unemployment and the populace will revolt. Then Spain will default .

[Sir Tigger KC]

Which will come first... The Spexit or The Grexit??    Maybe I'll open a book!! 

[Nickbat]

Which will come first... The Spexit or The Grexit??    Maybe I'll open a book!! 

Marketwire - June 7, 2012: Fortress Paper Ltd. ("Fortress Paper" or the "Corporation") (TSX:FTP), announces that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Landqart AG, a leading manufacturer of banknote and security papers, has had a material banknote order reinstated. This order was unexpectedly suspended in the fourth quarter of 2011 which negatively impacted the financial results of Landqart's operations in the first half of 2012.

http://www.digitaljournal.com/pr/745246#ixzz1xDrKSeSx

My money would be on Greece....and soon. 

[Varche]

1:2 odds on Greece exiting the Euro next two months

5:2 odds on Spain this year. They will wait till later after they have had a handout(It will be called a bank "recapitalisation" rather than a bailout -non refundable of course!)

5:1 odds on the Euro disappearing altogether within two years

Let us not get too excited about the "comfy" position of the UK while we watch the rest burn. They are still broke and the debt is getting bigger every day not smaller. The only way of fixing that is much more taxation  OR borrowing yet more money.

[Rods2]

1:2 odds on Greece exiting the Euro next two months

5:2 odds on Spain this year. They will wait till later after they have had a handout(It will be called a bank "recapitalisation" rather than a bailout -non refundable of course!)

5:1 odds on the Euro disappearing altogether within two years

Let us not get too excited about the "comfy" position of the UK while we watch the rest burn. They are still broke and the debt is getting bigger every day not smaller. The only way of fixing that is much more taxation  OR borrowing yet more money.

Once the Euro breaks up, the recovery and growth with decreasing unemployment will happen surprisingly quickly. Normally it takes between just between 2 and 9 months for an economy to start growing again. Look at Iceland v Greece: Iceland growth 2012 4.5%, Greece -6.3%. The text is quite dry, so for a light read just look at the graphs at the end of this research paper:

http://idbdocs.iadb.org/wsdocs/getdocument.aspx?docnum=845952

For more information on the history of defaults then read this paper. Called 'This time it will be different'! Written in 2008, they guessed rightly that Greece was the most likely too next default!

http://www.economics.harvard.edu/files/faculty/51_This_Time_Is_Different.pdf