Yep, you've followed a sensible route of diagnostics, eliminating things as you go without introducing unknowns. I think it's probably led you to the conclusion that it's the wiring from injector to ECU or the ECU itself.
A couple of things I'd suggest to try next:
Buy / Make yourself a "noid light", i.e. an LED and series resistor with a couple of piggy back connectors so you can connect it across the feed to the injector. You should, of course, get a brief flash from this once every engine cycle. If you get a constant illumination, the injector signal is fully on as you suspect. You could make the same check with a multimeter or a spare bulb, of course, it just won't respond rapidly enough to see the flash, but it'll tell you if it's stuck "on".
If you find the injector stuck on, disconnect the ecu and use a multimeter to check for continuity between the injector negative side and the relevant pin on the ECU connector. Also check that this pin is not shorted to ground (I believe these injectors are supplied with constant 12v and the ground switched at the ECU).
If there isn't a wiring problem, my conclusion would be that the injector driver inside the ECU has failed. Very rare, but not unheard-of. I'm surprised the ECU doesn't report a problem with that injector circuit, but maybe the Simtec ECU on the 2.0 is not that clever.
