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Author Topic: Malaysian Airlines Crash...  (Read 34487 times)

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Varche

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Re: Malaysian Airlines Crash...
« Reply #165 on: 18 March 2014, 13:56:52 »

Al can you give us an inventory of what was in the planes hold? (other than passenger suitcases). It might just have been carrying something of huge value.

If not then I am back with Part One -the plane has been stolen and landed somewhere like Somalia . Part Two - it is going to be used in a terrorist attack. That would explain why no group has yet claimed responsibility. It certainly is a well orchestrated plan.
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Shackeng

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Re: Malaysian Airlines Crash...
« Reply #166 on: 18 March 2014, 13:59:21 »

Interesting theory here: http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/post/79838944823/did-malaysian-airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68-sq68

On the face of it, this sounds feasible, however, it does rely on the SIA flight arriving at the required 'rendezvous' point at the right time. Such information could have been established by listening out on an appropriate frequency, and if that is a particularly busy route, it may have been possible to take a chance, and 'latch on' to any appropriate A/C. :-\
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Entwood

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Re: Malaysian Airlines Crash...
« Reply #167 on: 18 March 2014, 14:25:41 »

Recently off the phone to an ex-RAF mate who was a UK Air Defence Radar guy .. it seems I may be wrong in my comments above ....

Apparently, due to the high number of aircraft that an Air Defence radar has to track .. ie every single plane in the sky in the region, a methodology has been developed whereby the radar signature can be annotated with one of 3 designations ..  "F" - known friendly - "H" - known hostile - "U" - unclassified. An aircraft with an "F" designation will not be tracked with any high degree of interest .. the Air Defence job is the "H's" and "U's"

So, how does an aircraft get an "F" designation ... basically either from its flight plan, or later attached by an operator. MH370 departed from Malaysian airspace on time,  on a pre-planned, approved flight planned route... it would therefore be marked as "F".

Unless, and until, an operator changes that designation it will remain, there is no automatic change. The "turn back" would not be questioned as, from a Military Air Defence viewpoint, it is still friendly, and the re-route could be for any, Civil, Air Traffic reason. ....

That's my understanding of what he told me, and may not be accurate or how the Malaysians operate ... but it does make some things more understandable... to me at least ..  :)

The thing is, during that process, the aircraft went from a secondary RADAR contact squarking a known ICAO address and squawk code to an unknown primary contact. Would that not have been treated as a new contact?

Apparently not, Air Defence radars do not rely on Secondary Radar as they don't expect a "hostile" to be nice and squawk conveniently. All Primary Radar based with computer aided tracking
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Kevin Wood

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Re: Malaysian Airlines Crash...
« Reply #168 on: 18 March 2014, 14:45:49 »

Apparently not, Air Defence radars do not rely on Secondary Radar as they don't expect a "hostile" to be nice and squawk conveniently. All Primary Radar based with computer aided tracking

Fair enough. I suppose once a friend = always a friend was a reasonable assumption to make - until 9/11, at any rate.

I wonder how closely you need to "shadow" a friendly aircraft before your return disappears?
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aaronjb

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Re: Malaysian Airlines Crash...
« Reply #169 on: 18 March 2014, 15:20:26 »

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Entwood

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Re: Malaysian Airlines Crash...
« Reply #170 on: 18 March 2014, 15:39:39 »

How about this theory: http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

IMHO it falls down simply as the Emergency Locator Transmitter, which is designed to activate either by high "G" or sea water immersion has not been activated. This unit is totally independent, requires no power supply, and has a very low failure rate. The transmissions are on several search and rescue frequencies, including the satellite S&R system .. if the ELT had activated it would have been found ... in the event of a fire/crash the ELT would (?) /should have activated
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05omegav6

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Re: Malaysian Airlines Crash...
« Reply #171 on: 18 March 2014, 15:57:00 »

Apparently not, Air Defence radars do not rely on Secondary Radar as they don't expect a "hostile" to be nice and squawk conveniently. All Primary Radar based with computer aided tracking

Fair enough. I suppose once a friend = always a friend was a reasonable assumption to make - until 9/11, at any rate.

I wonder how closely you need to "shadow" a friendly aircraft before your return disappears?
Probably within 500m, positioning is then critical to avoid wake turbulence... slightly above and behind is probably most comfortable/easiest as the 'lead' aircraft is then lit from above by moonlight, so easier to spot.
Interesting theory here: http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/post/79838944823/did-malaysian-airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68-sq68

On the face of it, this sounds feasible, however, it does rely on the SIA flight arriving at the required 'rendezvous' point at the right time. Such information could have been established by listening out on an appropriate frequency, and if that is a particularly busy route, it may have been possible to take a chance, and 'latch on' to any appropriate A/C. :-\
Off the top of my head, there are at least six aircraft from that part of the world heading to Heathrow alone at that time of day, probably a further two flights each to Frankfurt, Paris, Zurich, Amsterdam and Madrid/Lisbon...

Al can you give us an inventory of what was in the planes hold? (other than passenger suitcases). It might just have been carrying something of huge value.

If not then I am back with Part One -the plane has been stolen and landed somewhere like Somalia . Part Two - it is going to be used in a terrorist attack. That would explain why no group has yet claimed responsibility. It certainly is a well orchestrated plan.
It's possible that it was carrying high value goods, but beyond luggage and post, the odd painting/ming vase doesn't warrant the lengths that have obviously been taken...

It was almost certainly landed in Pakistan, as sections of the government there are known Al Qaeda sympathisers.
From there, central and northern Africa are obvious hidey holes, with extremist tendencies. Although a project of that nature would be best kept close to home.

With a fresh electronic identity, it could be flown anywhere using legitimate flight plans, so once it moves, it will be via somewhere, possibly Sudan or Libya to refuel and then anywhere...

UN building in New York, World Cup opening ceremony, The Hague, Lundun and The White House/Pentagon are all pretty obvious targets :-\

Making the plane disappear is the easy bit... will it be the only one? The only way to prevent it from moving eliminate the threat is to ground every single aircraft between Europe and the Far East, actually now it's past 10days, globally.

The threat isn't the disappearance of one aircraft, it's what happens next...

As I asked earlier, that's the question that noone dare ask...
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05omegav6

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Re: Malaysian Airlines Crash...
« Reply #172 on: 18 March 2014, 15:58:19 »

They always say, dont trust a country beginning in 'I' or ending in 'stan'
Does that include Ireland and Ingland :P
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05omegav6

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Re: Malaysian Airlines Crash...
« Reply #173 on: 18 March 2014, 16:11:44 »

How about this theory: http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/
The reference to SR111 is interesting, but misses out one minor detail...

There were nearly 11 minutes of conversation between the flightdeck and ATC at St Johns. This I linked to on page 2 or 3 iirc :y

Secondly, putting the plane in a dive to extinguish a fire is a bit like using water on a chip pan fire. It will go anywhere but out.

Hopefully the plane will turn up in the Indian Ocean, as the alternative is far, far worse...

And however horrific that possibility might be, it doesn't make it improbable, else we've learnt nothing from 9/11 :'(
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Kevin Wood

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Re: Malaysian Airlines Crash...
« Reply #174 on: 18 March 2014, 16:34:27 »

Probably within 500m, positioning is then critical to avoid wake turbulence... slightly above and behind is probably most comfortable/easiest as the 'lead' aircraft is then lit from above by moonlight, so easier to spot.

I guess it depends on the primary radar returns from the 2 aircraft not being resolvable as individual returns. Wavelength is 30cm, so we are going to be talking many wavelengths between aircraft. 500m is 1.6uS of signal flight time (granted that the signal path difference will be less than that, depending on the alignment of aircraft with RADAR station). Any relative movement between hulls would give you doppler shift, which a decent RADAR would probably detect. Easily resolvable, I would think.  I wonder if it would really be possible to evade a RADAR this way? We are talking about air defence RADAR here, of countries such as India, who have decent military resources and the need to be employing them effectively, given their neighbours, of course.

I wonder if even maintaining 500m would be possible, at night, and MACH .8something in the thin air at cruising altitude. As a glider pilot, sitting behind aircraft (on a smaller scale!) is not an unknown domain, and wake turbulence will throw you all over the place if you're not accurately positioned. As you say, above (or below) slipstream and behind would be favourites, and well away from the wingtip vortices.

A guy on PPRUNE was saying he's done it in a military context (moving fighters under cover of a tanker aircraft), and he it required him to be sat literally under the wing of the tanker. :o
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zirk

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Re: Malaysian Airlines Crash...
« Reply #175 on: 18 March 2014, 17:17:32 »

They always say, dont trust a country beginning in 'I' or ending in 'stan'
You mean iStan.

Ive just invented a new word  :D, unless your name is Stan of course.  :(
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Re: Malaysian Airlines Crash...
« Reply #176 on: 18 March 2014, 17:43:30 »

They always say, dont trust a country beginning in 'I' or ending in 'stan'
Does that include Ireland and Ingland :P

Lol, its the basic rules of export licensing......and Ireland did used to have some restricitions........

But yes, Iran, India, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan yada yada yada.....all difficult to send certain things to
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Shackeng

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Re: Malaysian Airlines Crash...
« Reply #177 on: 18 March 2014, 20:06:54 »

How about this theory: http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/
The reference to SR111 is interesting, but misses out one minor detail...

There were nearly 11 minutes of conversation between the flightdeck and ATC at St Johns. This I linked to on page 2 or 3 iirc :y

Secondly, putting the plane in a dive to extinguish a fire is a bit like using water on a chip pan fire. It will go anywhere but out.

Hopefully the plane will turn up in the Indian Ocean, as the alternative is far, far worse...

And however horrific that possibility might be, it doesn't make it improbable, else we've learnt nothing from 9/11 :'(

IIRC the Swissair crew (2 pilots, no F/E on MD11's!) spent time isolating busbars in accordance with the drills, but could possibly have put it on the ground much sooner. As a consequence, our emergency drills were changed subsequent to the Swissair MD11 crash, and the first immediate action with a fuselage or electrical fire became 'land ASAP', although it was already SOP for the pilot non-flying (PNF) and the F/E to carry out the Emergency drill, while the PF headed for the nearest suitable landing strip. So much easier to deal with emergencies with 3 crew. :-X
« Last Edit: 18 March 2014, 20:13:54 by Shackeng »
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Entwood

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Re: Malaysian Airlines Crash...
« Reply #178 on: 18 March 2014, 20:28:01 »

How about this theory: http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/
The reference to SR111 is interesting, but misses out one minor detail...

There were nearly 11 minutes of conversation between the flightdeck and ATC at St Johns. This I linked to on page 2 or 3 iirc :y

Secondly, putting the plane in a dive to extinguish a fire is a bit like using water on a chip pan fire. It will go anywhere but out.

Hopefully the plane will turn up in the Indian Ocean, as the alternative is far, far worse...

And however horrific that possibility might be, it doesn't make it improbable, else we've learnt nothing from 9/11 :'(

IIRC the Swissair crew (2 pilots, no F/E on MD11's!) spent time isolating busbars in accordance with the drills, but could possibly have put it on the ground much sooner. As a consequence, our emergency drills were changed subsequent to the Swissair MD11 crash, and the first immediate action with a fuselage or electrical fire became 'land ASAP', although it was already SOP for the pilot non-flying (PNF) and the F/E to carry out the Emergency drill, while the PF headed for the nearest suitable landing strip. So much easier to deal with emergencies with 3 crew. :-X

The old rule of "Aviate, Navigate, Communicate" ... still very valid after all these years ......
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Re: Malaysian Airlines Crash...
« Reply #179 on: 18 March 2014, 21:17:20 »

The plane has been spotted!!!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJ286Fpq7Fs
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