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[Kevin Wood]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26716572

So, AAIB and Inmarsat have confirmed that it went South by doing a bit more analysis on the satellite data. I wonder whose spy satellite provided the additional information they needed to come to that conclusion?

But, it tallies with the wreckage. I guess all the indications are that it went into the Indian ocean with 100% loss of life.

For what reason, it remains to be seen.

[05omegav6]

Assuming that it did crash in the Indian Ocean, will they bother looking for the black boxes

Could/should shipping in the area have picked up the signal from them...

[Marks DTM Calib]

Assuming that it did crash in the Indian Ocean, will they bother looking for the black boxes

Could/should shipping in the area have picked up the signal from them...

My understanding is that the black box emits an acoustic signal.

Some ships use acoustic setups for static positioning and manouvering, these utilise a deployable transceiver which is dropped out the bottom side of the hull via a valve and deployment machine.

However, when in transit, they are not deployed (and cant be dragged along on the underside at transit speeds).

So no, I see no reason why a vessel would detect such a signal

[05omegav6]

That makes sense Mark, just wondered out of curiosity

Declaring it 'lost' after two weeks of chasing ghosts around southern Asia is a slightly moot point though unless summat was lost in translation... 'After sixteen days since the as yet unexplained disappearance of MH370, we can only conclude that the aircraft has crashed with no survivors.'
...reads better than a text saying ' Yup, we've lost it'

Hopefully the families will finally find some closure...

[Entwood]

From the scant information I have been able to get from old contacts .... the "reason" the aircraft has now been declared "crashed" rather than "missing" by the Malaysians - who are still lead on the search - is that the latest analysis by Inmarsat and the UKAAIB shows that the aircraft was in that area at the time it "would" have run out of fuel, from all the information available.....

I would hazard a guess that the USA, UK, Chinese and Russians will all have some hunter/killer nuclear subs in the area all with some VERY sophisticated electronic sensor arrays ..... and anything found will be fed back by some tortuous route .... even so .. it is a HUGE volume of sea to search ....

[05omegav6]

So a reasonably informed guess in effect

I suppose the CIA are still staying schtum...

That's to say, if it didn't crash halfway between Perth and Port London, then they know where it is...

[Kevin Wood]

So a reasonably informed guess in effect

.. but certain enough to give the bereaved some closure.

It stopped talking to sats at about the time it would have run out of fuel, and the satellite data says that was 1500 miles off Perth, which is about the location at which it would have run out of fuel. Wreckage has also been found there.

It's in the middle of nowhere, so knowing it was flying there without fuel is enough to say that all souls on board are lost.

Undoubtedly there are going to be questions for some time, but at least the relatives can start grieving reasonably safe in the knowledge that there was a disaster and the plane went down with all on board.

[05omegav6]

So a reasonably informed guess in effect

.. but certain enough to give the bereaved some closure.

It stopped talking to sats at about the time it would have run out of fuel, and the satellite data says that was 1500 miles off Perth, which is about the location at which it would have run out of fuel. Wreckage has also been found there.

It's in the middle of nowhere, so knowing it was flying there without fuel is enough to say that all souls on board are lost.

Undoubtedly there are going to be questions for some time, but at least the relatives can start grieving reasonably safe in the knowledge that there was a disaster and the plane went down with all on board.

Amen to that

[Rods2]

From the scant information I have been able to get from old contacts .... the "reason" the aircraft has now been declared "crashed" rather than "missing" by the Malaysians - who are still lead on the search - is that the latest analysis by Inmarsat and the UKAAIB shows that the aircraft was in that area at the time it "would" have run out of fuel, from all the information available.....

I would hazard a guess that the USA, UK, Chinese and Russians will all have some hunter/killer nuclear subs in the area all with some VERY sophisticated electronic sensor arrays ..... and anything found will be fed back by some tortuous route .... even so .. it is a HUGE volume of sea to search ....

Apparently, they have had to develop new analysis methods using the Doppler effect to extract from the aircraft transmissions to satellite(s), to pinpoint the aircraft's position. Whether the Doppler effect meant analysis from a single satellite or multiple satellites and triangulation we may or may not hear about I would guess, depending upon any potential military uses.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26720772

[Entwood]

From the scant information I have been able to get from old contacts .... the "reason" the aircraft has now been declared "crashed" rather than "missing" by the Malaysians - who are still lead on the search - is that the latest analysis by Inmarsat and the UKAAIB shows that the aircraft was in that area at the time it "would" have run out of fuel, from all the information available.....

I would hazard a guess that the USA, UK, Chinese and Russians will all have some hunter/killer nuclear subs in the area all with some VERY sophisticated electronic sensor arrays ..... and anything found will be fed back by some tortuous route .... even so .. it is a HUGE volume of sea to search ....

Apparently, they have had to develop new analysis methods using the Doppler effect to extract from the aircraft transmissions to satellite(s), to pinpoint the aircraft's position. Whether the Doppler effect meant analysis from a single satellite or multiple satellites and triangulation we may or may not hear about I would guess, depending upon any potential military uses.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26720772

One of my contacts, who is a highly qualified (ex nimrod) AEO, says they have also used a new technique that involves analysing the signals from KNOWN sources .. ie other aircraft that they know the actual flightpath of .. and applying the information obtained from the signal behaviour of those aircraft to the signal obtained from MH370 .. something that has never been done, or even thought about, before. He reckons they've done 3 years worth of R&D in 3 weeks !! .. but he could be over-egging it a tad ... he always told a good story - but all his stories were actually based on fact, his contribution was the only thing exaggerated ....

[Kevin Wood]

From the scant information I have been able to get from old contacts .... the "reason" the aircraft has now been declared "crashed" rather than "missing" by the Malaysians - who are still lead on the search - is that the latest analysis by Inmarsat and the UKAAIB shows that the aircraft was in that area at the time it "would" have run out of fuel, from all the information available.....

I would hazard a guess that the USA, UK, Chinese and Russians will all have some hunter/killer nuclear subs in the area all with some VERY sophisticated electronic sensor arrays ..... and anything found will be fed back by some tortuous route .... even so .. it is a HUGE volume of sea to search ....

Apparently, they have had to develop new analysis methods using the Doppler effect to extract from the aircraft transmissions to satellite(s), to pinpoint the aircraft's position. Whether the Doppler effect meant analysis from a single satellite or multiple satellites and triangulation we may or may not hear about I would guess, depending upon any potential military uses.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26720772

It's a TDMA connection between aircraft and satellite, so timing and frequency errors would be compensated for by the signalling protocols and, fortunately, I guess the resulting corrections were logged. The doppler shift would have represented a complex combination of the satellite and aircraft movement, along with errors in the frequency reference at either end of the link so it must have taken some time to figure out a way to use that, possibly testing unproven theories on other aircraft flying in the area to confirm accuracy.

It is, of course, possible that other data from classified sources contributed, and that the AAIB and Inmarsat have cooperated to provide a front through which data so derived could be released without revealing the real source!

[78bex]

But I`m sure I read somewhere that MH370 passed over islands in the Indian ocean at tree top height to dodge below the radars.
 Now we learn from Inmarsat  Quote,"As far as the engineers could tell, the plane was flying at a cruising height above 30,000ft, but its final position could not be pinpointed more clearly", says BBC transport correspondent Richard Westcott. 


 

[Shackeng]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26716572

So, AAIB and Inmarsat have confirmed that it went South by doing a bit more analysis on the satellite data. I wonder whose spy satellite provided the additional information they needed to come to that conclusion?

But, it tallies with the wreckage. I guess all the indications are that it went into the Indian ocean with 100% loss of life.

For what reason, it remains to be seen.

Funny you should say that Kevin, exactly my thoughts. As of the last report I heard today, they have still not identified - or, as far as I know, recovered -  any debris spotted, and yet the Malaysian authorities felt able to state unequivocally that the A/C went down in that area. While I am no expert, I would have thought that, however clever the Inmarsat scientists were in calculating the track, and full credit to them for that, it still seems brave to make such a statement based on this sole evidence, with no piece of debris yet identified. I'm inclined to think that other evidence is available to back this up, of which we have not heard.

[Steve B]

so the australians along are flying around over the sea along with other countries  looking for this plane..

was just wondering. Do they do it for free 

[Entwood]

so the australians along are flying around over the sea along with other countries  looking for this plane..

was just wondering. Do they do it for free 

Ordinarily all Search & Rescue operations are done from the countries own budget .. ie .. not charged for ...  often put down under "operational training" ... main reason being .. everyone wants to be sure that in the event of one of their own aircraft going missing then everyone else will help... the minute someone "charged" for S&R then that system would disintegrate and a "poor" country" would get no help if something happened ...