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[Varche]

Putin seems to have outsmarted the West. 

Do the West assist him with his operations and give him global street cred?
Is Russia hitting Satanic State targets or anti Assad targets?
Has the West got secret boots on the ground helping anti Assad rebels?
How long before an American plane has a run in with a Russian one? That could easily be solved by taking turns in bombing. Yanks this week, Russkies next.

Over to you Rods2, the clock is ticking. You have sixty minutes.

[Sir Tigger KC]

Kaaabooooom!!    and Red Jez has today told the world that he would never press the button! 

[Broomies Mate]

Kaaabooooom!!    and Red Jez has today told the world that he would never press the button! 

Nah, Red Jez said he'll have the button taken away.  T.....WAT!

[biggriffin]

I hope the mice are ready, as this could be longer than the bears 0-60 thread.

[Varche]

sixty minutes are up! Are you back from Syria now?

[Migalot]

What I've always found amazing over the past year is how many times the Western media have taken footage of long columns of ISIS-flagged vehicles. If the media can find them, why not the military?

Maybe Vlad got sick of the pussy-footing around. 

[STEMO]

There are aspects of this I find very strange. I can't see why Putin is not just stating his true aim, it is no different ( just opposite) to the west's aim. The west wants to see Assad gone, Russia wants him to stay in place. As in Crimea, Russia has a naval base that it's not prepared to give up, and Assad has always been an ally.
So.....why the bluster? I can perfectly understand Putin's position, he should just say 'I'm defending an ally against whoever wants him out, and there's nothing anyone can do about it'.

[Rods2]

Obama has withdrawn the US from international politics and foreign policy with the Obama / Kerry / Rice 'strategic patience' policy which is a fancy diplomatic way of saying; do nothing today, do nothing tomorrow, do nothing for as long as possible. This is no different to the pacifist / isolationist Democratic party stance in the 1930's, which of course ended well for everybody, 1939 for us and 1941 for them.

Fortunately, Churchill's formidable diplomatic skills, the fact he was half American and some good US reporting, got Roosevelt to smell the coffee and to provide considerable help against much fierce opposition from within the Democratic party, with lend lease and convoy protection. This weakness encouraged Japan to try their hand on that 'infamous day' day at Pearl Harbour to keep the US out of the war, which was a terrible strategic miscalculation by the Japanese, but pacifism and appeasement encourages bad actors to overplay their hands.

Now the US with their Navy have retired as the world's police force all of the bad actors who can make financial and political capital out of being assertive are doing so. The Russian / Iranian axis is an obvious one to control the majority of the oil and gas in the Middle East and to be in a much stronger position to dictate global prices. Remember the US since the 1970's have had an embargo on the export of all oil and gas, so any 'shortfall' they can 'generate' with not be supplemented from there.

Russia is not interested in attacking ISIS as many of their senior members have been recruited by the FSB and Russia largely controls the organisation. But they are very useful for two reasons. 1) They can lump all anti-Assad forces as ISIS to attack those, which is what they are doing 2) Russia can play good cop while ISIS plays bad cop.

All Russian attacks and air raids to date have been against non-ISIS, anti-Assad forces which are backed by other regional players. The most important of these is Saudi Arabia. Now Obama / Kerry have told the anti-Assad forces that they are on their own and won't get any defensive weapons, which gives Russia a free hand, expect Saudi Arabia to push back by supplying them. Russia and Iran both loathe and hate Saudi Arabia. Russia as they blame them for the low oil prices and Iran where they are the wrong Islamic tribe and they are stopping their proxies from taking over Yemen. A war between Russia / Iran against Saudi Arabia is not out of the question. Russia has not placed advanced AA defences around their airfield to protect them against ground based anti-Assad forces.

Even if in 2017 there is a more robust FP response by the new POTUS, this will now be at a much greater risk than if the current Obama / Merkel / Hollande / Cameron weak appeasement policies had not happened. Appeasement encourages bad actors to be more assertive and empowers them to take bigger and bigger geopolitical risks. The world is now a considerably more dangerous place as a result of their weak actions.

[Migalot]

Russia is not interested in attacking ISIS as many of their senior members have been recruited by the FSB and Russia largely controls the organisation.

I don't believe a word of that. Proof?

All Russian attacks and air raids to date have been against non-ISIS, anti-Assad forces which are backed by other regional players.

Not sure I believe that, either.
I read that the Russians just today "hit an ISIS hardened command centre near Raqqah. Su-34s hit it with concrete-piercing BETAB-500s setting off a series of explosions and fires that completely destroyed the object".

[Rods2]

Russia is not interested in attacking ISIS as many of their senior members have been recruited by the FSB and Russia largely controls the organisation.

I don't believe a word of that. Proof?

All Russian attacks and air raids to date have been against non-ISIS, anti-Assad forces which are backed by other regional players.

Not sure I believe that, either.
I read that the Russians just today "hit an ISIS hardened command centre near Raqqah. Su-34s hit it with concrete-piercing BETAB-500s setting off a series of explosions and fires that completely destroyed the object".

FSB ISIS Recruitment in Dagestan article: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/08/23/russia-s-playing-a-double-game-with-islamic-terror0.html

Putin calls all anti-Assad groups ISIS as it is a useful smokescreen, like he calls all his and Russia's perceived enemies Nazis.

Russian buildup and raids in Syria:

http://ruslanleviev.livejournal.com/40836.html

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/09/30/putin-orders-u-s-jets-out-of-syria.html

And even the BBC is reporting it, so it must be common knowledge.

"Tragically, what has happened is that most of the Russian air strikes, as far as we have been able to see so far, have been in parts of Syria not controlled by Isil (IS) but controlled by other opponents to the regime."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-34438993

Most sloppy MSM journalists will take the original articles and write their 'interpretation' of them, that if they are one of the 1 or 2% that appear in the MSM at all. Much of the stuff that involves Moscow based Russian correspondents have to be taken with a pinch of salt as you don't risk getting expelled by towing the Putin line. BBC is generally one of the worst for this, but not the only guilty UK media outlet.

This is a good explanation on why Obama's Syrian foreign policy fantasy has been such a disaster.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/in-syria-whose-side-is-the-united-states-on/2015/10/01/27163ec4-6875-11e5-9ef3-fde182507eac_story.html

All the geopolitics I write on here are a precis of well respected journalists and experts for the factual parts and my own interpretation and and forward speculation on what the possible implications are.

A good example is today the head of Russia's Luckoil company is speculating $100/bl oil prices by next summer. For that to happen there will have to be bad things happening in the Middle East, which will deeply involve Saudi Arabia.

[Migalot]

FSB ISIS Recruitment in Dagestan article: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/08/23/russia-s-playing-a-double-game-with-islamic-terror0.html

From that article: Milashina makes her case study the village of Novosasitili in Dagestan’s Khasavyurt district. Since 2011, nearly 1 percent of the total population of Novosasitili has gone to Syria—22 out of 2,500 residents. Of that figure, five were killed and five have returned home. But they didn’t leave Russia, a country notoriously difficult to enter and exit, without outside help. The FSB established a “green corridor” to allow them to migrate first to Turkey, and then to Syria.

So, 22 people leave a village to go to Syria and that amounts to the FSB controlling ISIS?

And even the BBC is reporting it, so it must be common knowledge.

"Tragically, what has happened is that most of the Russian air strikes, as far as we have been able to see so far, have been in parts of Syria not controlled by Isil (IS) but controlled by other opponents to the regime."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-34438993

Even the BBC? That paragon of independent journalism? They are reporting Cameron's comments, which are of course scornful of the Russian activity since he supports the anti-Assad rebels – even though some are affiliated to Al_Qaeda.

Look, I know you're fiercely anti-Russian, Rods, but the West has done little to sort out Syria, other than talk the talk. Now it's Russia's turn. As for Assad, he may well not be a nice person, but all faiths lived peacefully together under his rule. A post-Assad Syria would be an Islamic fundamentalist state and a breeding ground for terrorism reaching right into Europe.

Of course, one must also remember that this is Sunni vs. Shi'ite argument, too. 
 

[Varche]

I'll stick with my original assertion that the West has secret boots on the ground in Syria. Some might call them trainers or aids or similar.

America has let Iran out of the bag.

Saudi Arabia is well armed and likely to get drawn into a full scale conflict. At least Britain could sell them more replacement stuff.

Slightly off track but has anyone noticed that despite a fairly steady 8,000 a day migrants into the EU, very little news coverage?

[Sir Tigger KC]

Yes with Iranian troops now on the ground in Syria, the Saudis may feel the need to counter this with some of their own. 

Then the shit will really hit the fan, with well trained and equipped regular troops joining the fray!   

[STEMO]

I'll stock up on popcorn then.

[Rods2]

Yes with Iranian troops now on the ground in Syria, the Saudis may feel the need to counter this with some of their own. 

Then the shit will really hit the fan, with well trained and equipped regular troops joining the fray!   

The Saudi's will continue to arm their proxies in Syria. Things may change if there are any major Russian losses to Western weapons that they get, but I don't think Russia will get drawn into a full scale war, they will arm Iran and let them get on with it, plus they have not got the logistics infrastructure to support a large distant overseas adventure. They have been stretched with Ukraine, which did cause problems with this summer's Siberian forest fires, where many firefighters had been assigned to other duties. Ukraine was much easier logistically as they are on the Russian border.

It suits Russia to help Iran become the predominant Middle Eastern power, especially where they are increasingly consolidating the territory they control in Iraq as part of being a partner in 'battling' ISIS.