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Author Topic: Don't listen to 'in' or 'out' campaigners  (Read 5662 times)

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STEMO

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Don't listen to 'in' or 'out' campaigners
« on: 18 June 2016, 08:08:37 »
It's nearly upon us (thank god) and it will soon be all over. If I want a real indication of what the likely outcome of something is, I never take much notice of the various arguments, I check the bookies' sites.
On Tuesday, the average price for remain was 4/6, quite a strong favourite. This morning it is 1/2, almost a certainty. The odd thing, I think, is that over 88% of bets placed have been for leave. That must say something about human nature, or the demographic of the leave voter, but I'm not sure what.

https://m.oddschecker.com/t/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result
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Steve B

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Re: Don't listen to 'in' or 'out' campaigners
« Reply #1 on: 18 June 2016, 12:10:01 »
So the poll's are moving towards leave yet the bookmakers think the other way  :-\
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Field Marshal Dr. Opti

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Re: Don't listen to 'in' or 'out' campaigners
« Reply #2 on: 18 June 2016, 13:54:29 »
Quote from: STEMO on 18 June 2016, 08:08:37
It's nearly upon us (thank god) and it will soon be all over. If I want a real indication of what the likely outcome of something is, I never take much notice of the various arguments, I check the bookies' sites.
On Tuesday, the average price for remain was 4/6, quite a strong favourite. This morning it is 1/2, almost a certainty. The odd thing, I think, is that over 88% of bets placed have been for leave. That must say something about human nature, or the demographic of the leave voter, but I'm not sure what.

https://m.oddschecker.com/t/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result

Perhaps some people are confusing the turf accountant with a polling booth. ::) ::) ;)
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amazonian

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Re: Don't listen to 'in' or 'out' campaigners
« Reply #3 on: 18 June 2016, 16:15:11 »
Last week on Betfair you could have got just under 3/1 for exit, now its just under 2/1.
For remain it was 1/2 and that is unchanged.

In spite of the polls and in spite of the fact that no less than  £36,000,000 has been bet on Betfair there seems little correlation between the polls and the betting.
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korum

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Re: Don't listen to 'in' or 'out' campaigners
« Reply #4 on: 18 June 2016, 18:03:02 »
Maybe it's down to the fact that even if we vote out they think the government won't actually see it through and we end up staying anyway.
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Steve B

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Re: Don't listen to 'in' or 'out' campaigners
« Reply #5 on: 18 June 2016, 22:57:14 »
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Mister Rog

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Re: Don't listen to 'in' or 'out' campaigners
« Reply #6 on: 19 June 2016, 10:34:05 »
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STEMO

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Re: Don't listen to 'in' or 'out' campaigners
« Reply #7 on: 19 June 2016, 13:02:12 »
Quote from: BIGtime on 18 June 2016, 22:57:14
He about sums it all up  ;D ;D ;D ;D

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGC5S3ag1q0
Love it  ;D ;D ;D
Why have I never seen Jonathan Pie before  :-\
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Field Marshal Dr. Opti

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Re: Don't listen to 'in' or 'out' campaigners
« Reply #8 on: 19 June 2016, 13:44:53 »
Entertaining if nothing else.

I hoped it would end up with JP bending the gobby make-up girl over the desk. :)
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STEMO

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Re: Don't listen to 'in' or 'out' campaigners
« Reply #9 on: 20 June 2016, 12:12:47 »
Remain now 1/4 on average with bookies. Everyone reckons 'stay' is, more or less, a cert. Markets up about 3% this morning on news of the latest polls.
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STEMO

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Re: Don't listen to 'in' or 'out' campaigners
« Reply #10 on: 20 June 2016, 12:14:52 »
Banks up 6-7%. They really are certain these polls are correct.  :-\
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Migv6 le Frog Fan

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Re: Don't listen to 'in' or 'out' campaigners
« Reply #11 on: 20 June 2016, 12:50:23 »
Baroness Warsi has just announced that she will not be running in the womens 4x 100m hurdles at the Olympics.  ;D
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STEMO

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Re: Don't listen to 'in' or 'out' campaigners
« Reply #12 on: 20 June 2016, 12:51:23 »
Quote from: Migv6 on 20 June 2016, 12:50:23
Baroness Warsi has just announced that she will not be running in the womens 4x 100m hurdles at the Olympics.  ;D
Nor be the first Asian woman in space.  ;D
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Steve B

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Re: Don't listen to 'in' or 'out' campaigners
« Reply #13 on: 20 June 2016, 16:54:26 »
Quote from: STEMO on 20 June 2016, 12:12:47
Remain now 1/4 on average with bookies. Everyone reckons 'stay' is, more or less, a cert. Markets up about 3% this morning on news of the latest polls.
And Leave ?
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STEMO

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Re: Don't listen to 'in' or 'out' campaigners
« Reply #14 on: 20 June 2016, 17:15:35 »
Quote from: BIGtime on 20 June 2016, 16:54:26
Quote from: STEMO on 20 June 2016, 12:12:47
Remain now 1/4 on average with bookies. Everyone reckons 'stay' is, more or less, a cert. Markets up about 3% this morning on news of the latest polls.
And Leave ?
Look at the link, lazy arse.  :P
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