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Author Topic: Recession  (Read 8451 times)

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Doctor Gollum

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Re: Recession
« Reply #30 on: 14 June 2020, 20:06:21 »

I haven't been paying into mine since 2015, any additionals being what's gone in from consolidating a couple of works schemes together, although I opened a SIPP about 18 months ago which now has everything in it, albeit invested relatively aggressively... One fund is sitting around 18% but has been up to 26% :o

The four funds the SIPP is spread across generally sits at an average of 10-12%, but a really crap 'safe' work pension that I can't do anything to averages 0% which brings the 'official' average down somewhat.  ::)
« Last Edit: 14 June 2020, 20:12:50 by Doctor Gollum »
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Viral_Jim

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Re: Recession
« Reply #31 on: 14 June 2020, 21:04:14 »

I'm not sure I could handle that level of volatility, I'd be a nervous wreck.  :D
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Doctor Gollum

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Re: Recession
« Reply #32 on: 14 June 2020, 21:28:03 »

I've made one major change from the initial investments...

(not counting the woeful work pension, 5% of total pot) the original pot was spread across five mutual funds. Gave it six months and one fund was clearly under performing, so I sold it and spread the proceeds equally across the remaining four funds.

Day to day the returns percentages can really bounce around, but remember, the point is long term growth, so absolutely nothing to be gained from panicking everytime the markets sneeze. Which is why i didn't swap it all for gold and bitcoins in February  ;D
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redelitev6

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Re: Recession
« Reply #33 on: 14 June 2020, 22:12:10 »

I've made one major change from the initial investments...

(not counting the woeful work pension, 5% of total pot) the original pot was spread across five mutual funds. Gave it six months and one fund was clearly under performing, so I sold it and spread the proceeds equally across the remaining four funds.

Day to day the returns percentages can really bounce around, but remember, the point is long term growth, so absolutely nothing to be gained from panicking everytime the markets sneeze. Which is why i didn't swap it all for gold and bitcoins in February  ;D
My advisor in Nigeria insisted that Bitcoins were the way forward so I gave all my money to him , funnily enough I haven't heard from him in a while , I really should check , I'm sure it'll be OK  :y
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Viral_Jim

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Re: Recession
« Reply #34 on: 14 June 2020, 22:35:55 »


Day to day the returns percentages can really bounce around, but remember, the point is long term growth, so absolutely nothing to be gained from panicking everytime the markets sneeze. Which is why i didn't swap it all for gold and bitcoins in February  ;D

100% agree. It's why I always wonder about the wailing and gnashing of teeth from people when there's a crash (moneybox live is an amazing source for this nonsense). Assuming investments are appropriately diverse, and they don't need their value, in cash, immediately, just wait it out.  ???
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LC0112G

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Re: Recession
« Reply #35 on: 15 June 2020, 10:03:14 »

The only time a 'crash' (which is defined as a 40% drop by the way) matters is if it happens less than about 5 years from when you actually need to start drawing the money. Investments should be viewed over a 10 year period. If it's more than 10 years till your retirement date then during and immediately after a crash is probably the best time to invest - you get more for your money. If it's less than 10 years you should probably be selling the higher risk stuff and concentrating on UK bases gilts and bonds. These will be much less volatile, but give much lower growth (there are other stratergies but de-risking is probably best for a novice investor). 

Day to day week to week or month to month variations of +/-5% shouldn't concern you. If they do, then you've invested above your true risk profile. We've been in a bull market for about 10 years (till Feb/March 2020) so anyone who has only started investing in that time has only known the good times which has probably lead to a lot of people investing well above their risk level. Then when the CV19 problems hit, the markets drop, and the punters panic and sell - crystallising their losses. Don't.

Most of my investments are back to their Jan 2020 levels now. And some of the stuff I bought in Feb/March is 50% up.
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LC0112G

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Re: Recession
« Reply #36 on: 15 June 2020, 10:18:48 »

So much for the usual projections based at 4/6/8% annual growth that the FSA allow :(

The FSA rates have been 2/5/8% since 2014. These are before inflation (typically 2-3%) and before costs (typically 1-2%), so in reality is the FSA rates should be viewed as -2%, 0%, 3%.

My main pension pot was down 2% at its valuation date (mid March), but has bounced back by 10% in the 3 months since then.
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Olympia5776

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Re: Recession
« Reply #37 on: 15 June 2020, 10:51:25 »

Plus remember we were heading (and some figures show clearly) for a monumental recession before anyone had even heard of the sniffle thing, due to uncertainty* in the economy following May's inability to do the impossible, and BoJo's I'm Alright attitude.


*no real uncertainty, we knew we were in for a massive UK crash.

Uh ,Uh ....here we go again ........... ::)
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TheBoy

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Re: Recession
« Reply #38 on: 15 June 2020, 21:40:17 »

Plus remember we were heading (and some figures show clearly) for a monumental recession before anyone had even heard of the sniffle thing, due to uncertainty* in the economy following May's inability to do the impossible, and BoJo's I'm Alright attitude.


*no real uncertainty, we knew we were in for a massive UK crash.

Uh ,Uh ....here we go again ........... ::)
The facts are there already, but the true believers* will make out its related to the sniffles, despite that not impacting even the Chinese economy until 2020, and Western economies until late Feb (despite its reliance on Chinese manufacturing)


*Or brainwashed, depending which side of the divide an individual is viewed from.
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Doctor Gollum

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Re: Recession
« Reply #39 on: 15 June 2020, 22:07:35 »

Markets are fluid, and Batflu has actually encouraged significant growth in areas that might have otherwise remained underachieving.

I would politely suggest that your pension funds have been mismanaged and misinvested and continue to be that way if they tank everytime the political or fiscal winds blow.

Diversification and an element of risk* go a very long way to well chosen funds significantly and repeatedly outperforming traditional pension portfolios. Especially as you literally have the world to invest in. Basically you can't complain that your pension pot isn't growing if you're blindly dropping 150% of your additional investment into something that is clearly broken.

Spending £800 a month on lottery tickets will out perform your current pension investments.

*Risk is subjective, but the FSA risk levels make the Third Reich seem liberal.
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TheBoy

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Re: Recession
« Reply #40 on: 15 June 2020, 22:13:38 »

Spending £800 a month on lottery tickets will out perform your current pension investments.
A (financial) friend of mine suggested that her Premium Bonds investments were returning her 1.3% currently, so she was seriously considering investing their rather than cash ISAs this year.  Obviously, the growth is down to luck.

So I dug out my Premium Bonds and checked the numbers....    ...not even 1p in over 40 years of owning them ;D.  Hardly surprising, as despite doing the lottery every week for 3 years when it started, never won a penny there either ;D
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Doctor Gollum

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Re: Recession
« Reply #41 on: 15 June 2020, 22:23:27 »

In which case, you're going to need this for retirement...

https://youtu.be/0Co1Iptd4p4
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Viral_Jim

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Re: Recession
« Reply #42 on: 15 June 2020, 22:43:10 »

In which case, you're going to need this for retirement...

https://youtu.be/0Co1Iptd4p4

The TEDx talk ( next suggested play from the link you shared) is a good watch.  :y
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Doctor Gollum

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Re: Recession
« Reply #43 on: 15 June 2020, 22:54:14 »

In which case, you're going to need this for retirement...

https://youtu.be/0Co1Iptd4p4

The TEDx talk ( next suggested play from the link you shared) is a good watch.  :y
Shall have a look at that in a spell :y Currently watching American Gospel on Netflix...
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Auto Addict

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Re: Recession
« Reply #44 on: 16 June 2020, 08:11:09 »

Spending £800 a month on lottery tickets will out perform your current pension investments.
A (financial) friend of mine suggested that her Premium Bonds investments were returning her 1.3% currently, so she was seriously considering investing their rather than cash ISAs this year.  Obviously, the growth is down to luck.

So I dug out my Premium Bonds and checked the numbers....    ...not even 1p in over 40 years of owning them ;D.  Hardly surprising, as despite doing the lottery every week for 3 years when it started, never won a penny there either ;D

I've had 2 £25 wins in the last six months from my premium bonds :P
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