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[Nickbat]

..but I can't find my post about it!

However, I did say that, in my view, the price of oil will fall back to $60-$80 per barrel in September. OK, it's not September yet and the price of oil is still over $100, but here's Deutsche Bank's take on it:

Deutsche Bank has called the top of the commodity cycle. The uber-bulls of the oil, food and metals boom have advised clients to take profits before the downturn engulfing most of the global economy works its inevitable effects.

Oil will slide back towards its "marginal production cost" of $60 to $80 a barrel; gold will slump to $650 an ounce as the dollar recovers against the euro; copper, lead and tin will slowly halve in price; grains will calm down as harvests in Australia and the Eurasian Steppe return to normal.

The report comes on cue. The CRB commodity index fell 10pc last month, the steepest one-month drop since the onset of the Volcker crunch in 1980. Most raw materials have been slipping for months. Crude was the last to turn after peaking at $147 early last month.

Deutsche Bank says this year's oil surge has been a quirk. Misjudging demand, Saudi Arabia cut output by 400,000 barrels a day (bpd). Several upsets hit the non-Opec bloc of Russia, Norway, the UK, and Mexico. Rebels caused mayhem in Nigeria. Global supply is now creeping back into surplus.

The Saudis are adding 500,000 bpd. Deepwater projects are coming on stream off the US, Mexico, China, and Africa. The Caspian is cranking up a gear. Non-Opec will add 2.2m bpd over this year and next, says the International Energy Agency.

For more, check out this very good website

[robbo299]

Unleaded around here is at £1-13/litre. Even if it does drop back as predicted still can't see the price per litre dropping anywhere near the £1 mark.

[Nickbat]

Unleaded around here is at £1-13/litre. Even if it does drop back as predicted still can't see the price per litre dropping anywhere near the £1 mark.

It will drop below £1, mark my words.  

[Kevin Wood]

.. and my local LPG garage went up 1p a litre today. Strike them off the list. No more fillups there.

Kevin

[robbo299]

If it does drop below a £1 a litre it wouldn't be because there may be an election coming around soon will it? Or is that me just being cynical......  

[Banjax]

$100 per barrel is the new floor price for oil - ie it will never go below $100 again i'm afraid - so this is about as cheap as its goin to get - every oil producing nation has peaked either recently (eg Russia 2007, Mexico 2004, Norway 2000) or way back (eg USA 1970, Iran 1974, Libya 1970)

only 3 main oil producers have yet to start to slide down the other side of the production graph and they are reckoned to be :-

Kuwait - predicted 2013 (see why the good ole US of A helped them?)
Saudi Arabia - predicted 2014 (they pretty much own the USA - i think about 1/3 of the entire US economy is Saudi Arabian - so please don't p@*& them off )
oh, and another little country in the middle east, goes by the name of Iraq - predicted 2018 to peak

hmmm - that makes Iraq pretty valuable.....I wonder if?......nah surely not....we couldn't just STEAL the oil.....could we?........hmmmmm - well - we'd have to invent a reason to go there......


you're right - too far fetched - its late - and i'm getting paranoid  

[Nickbat]

$100 per barrel is the new floor price for oil - ie it will never go below $100 again i'm afraid - so this is about as cheap as its goin to get - every oil producing nation has peaked either recently (eg Russia 2007, Mexico 2004, Norway 2000) or way back (eg USA 1970, Iran 1974, Libya 1970)

only 3 main oil producers have yet to start to slide down the other side of the production graph and they are reckoned to be :-

Kuwait - predicted 2013 (see why the good ole US of A helped them?)
Saudi Arabia - predicted 2014 (they pretty much own the USA - i think about 1/3 of the entire US economy is Saudi Arabian - so please don't p@*& them off )
oh, and another little country in the middle east, goes by the name of Iraq - predicted 2018 to peak

hmmm - that makes Iraq pretty valuable.....I wonder if?......nah surely not....we couldn't just STEAL the oil.....could we?........hmmmmm - well - we'd have to invent a reason to go there......


you're right - too far fetched - its late - and i'm getting paranoid  

Bet it will.

[Banjax]

i hope you're right nickbat  

[Nickbat]

$100 per barrel is the new floor price for oil - ie it will never go below $100 again i'm afraid - so this is about as cheap as its goin to get - every oil producing nation has peaked either recently (eg Russia 2007, Mexico 2004, Norway 2000) or way back (eg USA 1970, Iran 1974, Libya 1970)

only 3 main oil producers have yet to start to slide down the other side of the production graph and they are reckoned to be :-

Kuwait - predicted 2013 (see why the good ole US of A helped them?)
Saudi Arabia - predicted 2014 (they pretty much own the USA - i think about 1/3 of the entire US economy is Saudi Arabian - so please don't p@*& them off )
oh, and another little country in the middle east, goes by the name of Iraq - predicted 2018 to peak

hmmm - that makes Iraq pretty valuable.....I wonder if?......nah surely not....we couldn't just STEAL the oil.....could we?........hmmmmm - well - we'd have to invent a reason to go there......


you're right - too far fetched - its late - and i'm getting paranoid  

Bet it will.

Incidentally, that "bet" is based on production/demand and excludes political influences (e.g. Israel/Iran) Did you know that the US recently exported oil? Can't find the link right now but it is true.

[Banjax]

$100 per barrel is the new floor price for oil - ie it will never go below $100 again i'm afraid - so this is about as cheap as its goin to get - every oil producing nation has peaked either recently (eg Russia 2007, Mexico 2004, Norway 2000) or way back (eg USA 1970, Iran 1974, Libya 1970)

only 3 main oil producers have yet to start to slide down the other side of the production graph and they are reckoned to be :-

Kuwait - predicted 2013 (see why the good ole US of A helped them?)
Saudi Arabia - predicted 2014 (they pretty much own the USA - i think about 1/3 of the entire US economy is Saudi Arabian - so please don't p@*& them off )
oh, and another little country in the middle east, goes by the name of Iraq - predicted 2018 to peak

hmmm - that makes Iraq pretty valuable.....I wonder if?......nah surely not....we couldn't just STEAL the oil.....could we?........hmmmmm - well - we'd have to invent a reason to go there......


you're right - too far fetched - its late - and i'm getting paranoid  

Bet it will.

Incidentally, that "bet" is based on production/demand and excludes political influences (e.g. Israel/Iran) Did you know that the US recently exported oil? Can't find the link right now but it is true.

US are definitely the largest importers - dont know if they ever export - maybe when the price was at its peak earlier this year some US oil companies gambled on a quick profit tho?  :-?

i would guess they keep that kinda stuff quiet  

its fascinating and scary when you look into it  

[Nickbat]

$100 per barrel is the new floor price for oil - ie it will never go below $100 again i'm afraid - so this is about as cheap as its goin to get - every oil producing nation has peaked either recently (eg Russia 2007, Mexico 2004, Norway 2000) or way back (eg USA 1970, Iran 1974, Libya 1970)

only 3 main oil producers have yet to start to slide down the other side of the production graph and they are reckoned to be :-

Kuwait - predicted 2013 (see why the good ole US of A helped them?)
Saudi Arabia - predicted 2014 (they pretty much own the USA - i think about 1/3 of the entire US economy is Saudi Arabian - so please don't p@*& them off )
oh, and another little country in the middle east, goes by the name of Iraq - predicted 2018 to peak

hmmm - that makes Iraq pretty valuable.....I wonder if?......nah surely not....we couldn't just STEAL the oil.....could we?........hmmmmm - well - we'd have to invent a reason to go there......


you're right - too far fetched - its late - and i'm getting paranoid  

Bet it will.

Incidentally, that "bet" is based on production/demand and excludes political influences (e.g. Israel/Iran) Did you know that the US recently exported oil? Can't find the link right now but it is true.

US are definitely the largest importers - dont know if they ever export - maybe when the price was at its peak earlier this year some US oil companies gambled on a quick profit tho?  :-?

i would guess they keep that kinda stuff quiet  

its fascinating and scary when you look into it  

Yep!

Reuters
ANALYSIS-US oil firms seek drilling access, but exports soar
07.03.08, 2:40 PM ET

United States - By Tom Doggett
WASHINGTON3 (Reuters) - While the U.S. oil industry want access to more federal lands to help reduce reliance on foreign suppliers, American-based companies are shipping record amounts of gasoline and diesel fuel to other countries.

A record 1.6 million barrels a day in U.S. refined petroleum products were exported during the first four months of this year, up 33 percent from 1.2 million barrels a day over the same period in 2007. Shipments this February topped 1.8 million barrels a day for the first time during any month, according to final numbers from the Energy Department.

And they have exported (crude oil) for many a year...see: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mcrexus1m.htm, although the amount is tiny.

[Omegadoha, Desert Member]

$100 per barrel is the new floor price for oil - ie it will never go below $100 again i'm afraid - so this is about as cheap as its goin to get - every oil producing nation has peaked either recently (eg Russia 2007, Mexico 2004, Norway 2000) or way back (eg USA 1970, Iran 1974, Libya 1970)

only 3 main oil producers have yet to start to slide down the other side of the production graph and they are reckoned to be :-

Kuwait - predicted 2013 (see why the good ole US of A helped them?)
Saudi Arabia - predicted 2014 (they pretty much own the USA - i think about 1/3 of the entire US economy is Saudi Arabian - so please don't p@*& them off )
oh, and another little country in the middle east, goes by the name of Iraq - predicted 2018 to peak

hmmm - that makes Iraq pretty valuable.....I wonder if?......nah surely not....we couldn't just STEAL the oil.....could we?........hmmmmm - well - we'd have to invent a reason to go there......


you're right - too far fetched - its late - and i'm getting paranoid  

Bet it will.

Incidentally, that "bet" is based on production/demand and excludes political influences (e.g. Israel/Iran) Did you know that the US recently exported oil? Can't find the link right now but it is true.

Yes agreed, the US has been exporting oil. However, this was at a time when fuel costs in Britain were on the increase.

I doubt the government will allow prices to drop below 1 GBP per litre. (Sorry no pound sign on my keyboard!)

[Banjax]

$100 per barrel is the new floor price for oil - ie it will never go below $100 again i'm afraid - so this is about as cheap as its goin to get - every oil producing nation has peaked either recently (eg Russia 2007, Mexico 2004, Norway 2000) or way back (eg USA 1970, Iran 1974, Libya 1970)

only 3 main oil producers have yet to start to slide down the other side of the production graph and they are reckoned to be :-

Kuwait - predicted 2013 (see why the good ole US of A helped them?)
Saudi Arabia - predicted 2014 (they pretty much own the USA - i think about 1/3 of the entire US economy is Saudi Arabian - so please don't p@*& them off )
oh, and another little country in the middle east, goes by the name of Iraq - predicted 2018 to peak

hmmm - that makes Iraq pretty valuable.....I wonder if?......nah surely not....we couldn't just STEAL the oil.....could we?........hmmmmm - well - we'd have to invent a reason to go there......


you're right - too far fetched - its late - and i'm getting paranoid  

Bet it will.

Incidentally, that "bet" is based on production/demand and excludes political influences (e.g. Israel/Iran) Did you know that the US recently exported oil? Can't find the link right now but it is true.

US are definitely the largest importers - dont know if they ever export - maybe when the price was at its peak earlier this year some US oil companies gambled on a quick profit tho?  :-?

i would guess they keep that kinda stuff quiet  

its fascinating and scary when you look into it  

Yep!

Reuters
ANALYSIS-US oil firms seek drilling access, but exports soar
07.03.08, 2:40 PM ET

United States - By Tom Doggett
WASHINGTON3 (Reuters) - While the U.S. oil industry want access to more federal lands to help reduce reliance on foreign suppliers, American-based companies are shipping record amounts of gasoline and diesel fuel to other countries.

A record 1.6 million barrels a day in U.S. refined petroleum products were exported during the first four months of this year, up 33 percent from 1.2 million barrels a day over the same period in 2007. Shipments this February topped 1.8 million barrels a day for the first time during any month, according to final numbers from the Energy Department.

And they have exported (crude oil) for many a year...see: http://[highlight]http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mcrexus1m.htm[/highlight], although the amount is tiny.

wow - like you say - its a small amount - but still - US are the biggest consumers - i wonder what countries they export to? maybe its all going to canada  

[herman_shaw]

Hi, running your vehicle on gas is always an increasing cost, but there is a way that can be more profitable than this. Now you can easily use a system that allows you to convert your fuel costs to save huge amounts of running your vehicle. You can learn to build a simple inexpensive device, attach it to a vehicle's engine and convert that vehicle into a water-burning hybrid .

[Lazydocker]

Same old story... If this was really viable then the car manufacturers would be doing it!

Right... I'm off for that free lunch