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[Banjax]

dull but important first estimate of "growth" in Q1 will be out today.........it really needs to be over 1.7% to be encouraging, according to the FT
"Given that snow subtracted 0.5% from growth in Q4, we should expect this to ‘bounce back’ in Q1.
- Some services and purchases (according to the ONS) were postponed in Q4 and should now fall into Q1. So the real minimum we are looking for is about 0.7%.
- 0.7% would represent no real growth over two quarters, then 1.2% would show the expected bounce back from Q4 plus the economy growing at ‘an average pace’ in Q1.
- ‘Arguably’ (says the FT) it should be even higher, around 1.7% if we account for some of the underlying stagnation in Q4 being reversed."


"Add in one quarter of the growth expected in 2011 – about another 0.5 per cent – and the figure necessary to show the economy growing at an average pace in the first quarter is at least 1.2 per cent.

"

so 0.7% minimum (no real growth) but really it should be 1.7%, anything under 0.7% and hit the alarm bells - this suckers going down - to paraphrase W Bush 

[Banjax]

0.5% growth (ie none for the last 6 months -0.5 + 0.5 = 0) we're screwed I'm afraid - how the hell are they going to spin this one? maybe a massive news story will break today to take the headlines away from this disaster? 

[Field Marshal Dr. Opti]

dull but important first estimate of "growth" in Q1 will be out today.........it really needs to be over 1.7% to be encouraging, according to the FT
"Given that snow subtracted 0.5% from growth in Q4, we should expect this to ‘bounce back’ in Q1.
- Some services and purchases (according to the ONS) were postponed in Q4 and should now fall into Q1. So the real minimum we are looking for is about 0.7%.
- 0.7% would represent no real growth over two quarters, then 1.2% would show the expected bounce back from Q4 plus the economy growing at ‘an average pace’ in Q1.
- ‘Arguably’ (says the FT) it should be even higher, around 1.7% if we account for some of the underlying stagnation in Q4 being reversed."


"Add in one quarter of the growth expected in 2011 – about another 0.5 per cent – and the figure necessary to show the economy growing at an average pace in the first quarter is at least 1.2 per cent.

"

so 0.7% minimum (no real growth) but really it should be 1.7%, anything under 0.7% and hit the alarm bells - this suckers going down - to paraphrase W Bush 

Growth will stay pretty piss poor for a while yet....I think.

However BJ appears to have an excellent grasp of statistics. I vote we make him chief economist for the U.K. ....or Scotland at least...

[albitz]

Massive tax breaks/incentives for businesses is what is needed, but he doesnt have the balls to do it.
Talking of balls - if that slimey, lying, hateful retarded moron ever gets control of our economy.......

[Varche]

I liked the way th panel waffled on about :

"they had got the figures for Jan and Feb but not March. It is the 27th April they have had 26 days to submit them. One guy did say that they would have ALL the info in 12 months time for this quarter".

So it is just a guess then?

Statisticians, don't you just love em.

[Banjax]

I liked the way th panel waffled on about :

"they had got the figures for Jan and Feb but not March. It is the 27th April they have had 26 days to submit them. One guy did say that they would have ALL the info in 12 months time for this quarter".

So it is just a guess then?

Statisticians, don't you just love em.

yep, remeber the first estimate for Q4 (the end of last year) was 0%, later revised down to -0.5%.....due to.....snow 

but like the FT was saying yesterday.....anything below 0.7% is pretty distressing - hate to be negative but make all the cuts you want, you're not going to help reduce the deficit if theres no one working and paying taxes....yet again unemployment seems a price worth paying (for everyone else, not the tories) 

[Banjax]

0.5% growth (ie none for the last 6 months -0.5 + 0.5 = 0) we're screwed I'm afraid - how the hell are they going to spin this one? maybe a massive news story will break today to take the headlines away from this disaster? 

"calm down dear" seems to have done the trick......well played DC