The thing with a manual is it doesn't actually need any maintenance (I change the oil in mine anyway but it's usually still clean), so even a neglected one will probably still outlive the engine and/or bodywork. It's not a big deal if you have the equipment and skills to do the work yourself, but for the rest of us I'd rather avoid the hassle.
This is the key. Manuals very rarely leak oil, and don't suffer too badly if it's never changed (some don't have a drain plug after all).
Auto boxes, on the other hand, can lose oil through external coolers, etc., it has a much harder life, collects more contaminants and the setup on the Omega seems almost designed to promote neglect because the fluid is so difficult to check, top up and change.
A well looked-after auto will always outlast the clutch on a manual but once it starts to wear, instead of having one wear item that's easily changed, you're into a complex overhaul. Both are gearbox-out jobs anyway, though :-/
Kevin
In my limited experience I think it's got a lot to do with the simplicity of it. A manual box is simply a set of gears in a constant mesh, with some selector forks to move the input/output shafts around. Apart from the synchromesh to allow non-RPM matched shifts, it's barely changed in terms of the fundamental design since its inception. Hence, there's very little to actually go wrong, as long as the gears are engineered to be strong enough for the engine's torque output.
Autos on the other hand have all manner of hydraulics inside there, with various high and low pressure parts, clutch bands, etc. With many more moving parts, it's inevitably going to have more potential failure points. Also with the oil being shared between the gearbox and the torque converter, which is dissipating a large amount of power from the engine in the form of heat due to the slippage, means that driving it hard gets the entire oil for the transmission very hot, which I doubt does it much good.
And that's before you even consider the electrics, which we all know are an achilles heel in many modern cars. Even if the mechanicals are OK, how often do we hear of selector switch failures in Omegas? Granted that's probably down to (yet another) stupid design decision -- why the hell is it underneath the car exposing it to the elements? I guess it's the same reason the handbrake adjuster is there, to make it as inaccessible as possible.
It'll be interesting to see how the SMG II gearboxes hold up over time as they get older. The actual gearbox part itself shouldn't have any problems, as it's basically just a normal manual box. But all the hydraulics and electronics to do the shifting are much closer to what you'd find in an auto, and I suspect we'll start seeing failures in those as they get over 100k miles. They don't have the oil heating and contamination issues though, so maybe not. I also wonder how the clutch will hold up, seeing that every shift should be a "perfect" one, although the launch control (dumps the clutch at 5,000 RPM from standstill) certainly won't help!
BTW I think you're perhaps being a little optimistic in saying a looked-after auto will always outlast the clutch in a manual. Mine lasted 170k, and that wasn't pussy-footing it around. Yes, some autos will last that long with regular fluid and filter changes, but I expect quite a few would still experience failures. And at £180 inc labour for a new clutch kit that should last another 170k along with the gearbox, it still works out a lot cheaper to keep the manual box maintained and on the road.