Omega Owners Forum
Chat Area => General Discussion Area => Topic started by: Doctor Gollum on 04 July 2024, 22:06:13
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Well the BBC are already declaring it based on a fantasy exit pole :-X
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A dismal effort from all parties in my area , no one knocking on doors , the only leaflets we got were from the Green party and an Independent , so much for Sunak saying he was fighting for every vote !
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Well the Exit Poll is generally not far off the end result to be fair, but oh boy are they gleefully sticking the knife in! ::)
Quite different to the stunned mournful BBC reaction to the Exit Poll 5 years ago.... :-X
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Well the BBC are already declaring it based on a fantasy exit pole :-X
They're usually correct, but we knew it weeks ago. I have no intention of watching/reading anything political for five years ;D
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I had a phone call from the Tory candidate yesterday. :o Most of the leaflets were delivered by the postie.
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Well the BBC are already declaring it based on a fantasy exit pole :-X
They're usually correct, but we knew it weeks ago. I have no intention of watching/reading anything political for five years ;D
Got to keep your blood pressure up Uncle STEMO! :)
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If the figures are correct, Reform have done much better than I thought they would.
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If the figures are correct, Reform have done much better than I thought they would.
Yes and the Tories have done better than expected as well.
It's bad enough having a left wing Labour government, but what a disaster having the left wing Lib Dems as the official opposition would be. ::)
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I had a phone call from the Tory candidate yesterday. :o Most of the leaflets were delivered by the postie.
Who, in my case, CBA to bring them to the actual door, Just found a few littered around the front garden. >:(
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If the figures are correct, Reform have done much better than I thought they would.
Yes, that's quite a surprise considering that despite another name change, they're still the same delusional amateurs playing at dog-whistle politics.
Then there's the rest:
Conservative Party is so utterly worn out in every way that matters that they desperately don't want to win.
Labour Party is so afraid of winning with a tiny majority that they created a manifesto and campaign so boring the voters might give them one anyway. They could have just rolled around in the middle of any road for the same effect.
Lib Dems are sticking to their long standing club rules of needing one more MP than they actually have to come to a decision about anything.
Greens only electable candidate decided not to stand.
Others - Britain's first past the post makes them irrelevant as it always has.
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Well the BBC are already declaring it based on a fantasy exit pole :-X
They're usually correct, but we knew it weeks ago. I have no intention of watching/reading anything political for five years ;D
20,000 people surveyed at 133 polling stations.
~50,000,000 potential voters at ~40,000 polling stations.
The exit poll is statistically irrelevant.
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Well the BBC are already declaring it based on a fantasy exit pole :-X
They're usually correct, but we knew it weeks ago. I have no intention of watching/reading anything political for five years ;D
20,000 people surveyed at 133 polling stations.
~50,000,000 potential voters at ~40,000 polling stations.
The exit poll is statistically irrelevant.
C'mon Al, Exit Polls are usually not far off the end result, You know it, we know it, Uncle STEMO's dog knows it! ;D
Sunderland just declared, Labour win, Reform second with around double the votes of the Tories!
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If the figures are correct, Reform have done much better than I thought they would.
Yes, that's quite a surprise considering that despite another name change, they're still the same delusional amateurs playing at dog-whistle politics.
Then there's the rest:
Conservative Party is so utterly worn out in every way that matters that they desperately don't want to win.
Labour Party is so afraid of winning with a tiny majority that they created a manifesto and campaign so boring the voters might give them one anyway. They could have just rolled around in the middle of any road for the same effect.
Lib Dems are sticking to their long standing club rules of needing one more MP than they actually have to come to a decision about anything.
Greens only electable candidate decided not to stand.
Others - Britain's first past the post makes them irrelevant as it always has.
[/quote
Reform is probably the best to vote for imo ……. Do you really believe the shit the other parties are spewing again??
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So, 0.9% of the results in, and Labour are 6/6.
However, 5 of those are moot as they're seat that they've held. Whilst the outcome is the same, it isn't quite the same thing as a gain.
Looking at it, in outright numbers: I suspect Reform will see more votes this time than Labour managed last time, and Labour will receive less votes this time than Conservatives last time.
So:
Reform to exceed 10,300,000.
Labour to not exceed 13,966,000.
Conservatives to fail to reach 9,000,000.
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Only a 60% voter turn out I think most folks are pi55ed off with it all.
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Labour have got their thumping majority with 36% of the vote, less than Jeremy Corbyn managed in 2017! :-X
(https://i.postimg.cc/sDC5xVVC/GE24-Results.jpg)
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Only a 60% voter turn out I think most folks are pi55ed off with it all.
That's a gradual decline through the last twenty years worth of national elections. The only one that exceeded 70% was the Brexit referendum. It averaged around 75% for the entire 20th century.
That's unarguably a trend, but it's hardly a recent one.
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A few weeks ago i said that if the Tories put a blue rosette on a chimp it would still get in. (Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket). Well, how wrong was i? We now have an ear, nose and throat consultant surgeon as our Labour, :o MP.
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Labour have got their thumping majority with 36% of the vote, less than Jeremy Corbyn managed in 2017! :-X
(https://i.postimg.cc/sDC5xVVC/GE24-Results.jpg)
This demonstrates a lack of enthusiasm by us Brits especially when based on a poor 60% or 6/10 turnout. :-X
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Almsot all votes counted now.
Libdems. 3.5 million votes and 71 seats.
Reform. 4.1 million votes and 4 seats.
I think Ive finally been converted to the opinion that first past the post has to change. Its indefensible in a multi party system.
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Almsot all votes counted now.
Libdems. 3.5 million votes and 71 seats.
Reform. 4.1 million votes and 4 seats.
I think Ive finally been converted to the opinion that first past the post has to change. Its indefensible in a multi party system.
Not a fan of PR because it generally leads to compromised decisions......but when you look at the statistics above it makes you wonder if a better way can be found.
I suppose most Libdem seats are rural where 12 men a whippet and a goat is enough for thumping majority. :D
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Ive always felt the same, but this really has to change to something better.
Labour have just won a thumping majority with the votes of approx. 20% of the electorate.
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So, 0.9% of the results in, and Labour are 6/6.
However, 5 of those are moot as they're seat that they've held. Whilst the outcome is the same, it isn't quite the same thing as a gain.
Looking at it, in outright numbers: I suspect Reform will see more votes this time than Labour managed last time, and Labour will receive less votes this time than Conservatives last time.
So:
Reform to exceed 10,300,000.
Labour to not exceed 13,966,000.
Conservatives to fail to reach 9,000,000.
Well...
Labour 9,686,329
Reform 4,092,209
Conservative 6,814,650
In the immortal words of Jim Steinmann/Meatloaf... Two outta three ain't bad. But it's hardly a ringing endorsement of Labour.
Under a different system, we could have woken to a Conservative/Reform coalition.
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Northern Ireland might be in for a rough ride too now the IRA hold a majority :-\
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/results
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So, 0.9% of the results in, and Labour are 6/6.
However, 5 of those are moot as they're seat that they've held. Whilst the outcome is the same, it isn't quite the same thing as a gain.
Looking at it, in outright numbers: I suspect Reform will see more votes this time than Labour managed last time, and Labour will receive less votes this time than Conservatives last time.
So:
Reform to exceed 10,300,000.
Labour to not exceed 13,966,000.
Conservatives to fail to reach 9,000,000.
Well...
Labour 9,686,329
Reform 4,092,209
Conservative 6,814,650
In the immortal words of Jim Steinmann/Meatloaf... Two outta three ain't bad. But it's hardly a ringing endorsement of Labour.
Under a different system, we could have woken to a Conservative/Reform coalition.
Seems low, Al.
I believe John 'grey' Major getting something like 13 or 14 million in 1992 and that was far from a landslide.
Could be wrong though without checking the figures.
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Link above was correct when I posted it ;)
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Ive always felt the same, but this really has to change to something better.
Labour have just won a thumping majority with the votes of approx. 20% of the electorate.
Agreed. 100%.
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Also, to the point of the '92 election, the population was somewhat less and turnout was 79% iirc, so the actual number of available votes available would have been similar based on turn out.
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Northern Ireland might be in for a rough ride too now the IRA hold a majority :-\
Heartbreaking. :'( :'(
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On the bright side - The SNP can now make use of that campervan, by holding their party conference in it. ;D
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On the bright side - The SNP can now make use of that campervan, by holding their party conference in it. ;D
'Progressive loons' deserve everything they get.
Male rapist in the women's prison.
Hate crime legislation ( in reality a cull on free speech) The stuff of Orwellian big brother 1984. :-\
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On the bright side - The SNP can now make use of that campervan, by holding their party conference in it. ;D
'Progressive loons' deserve everything they get.
Male rapist in the women's prison.
Hate crime legislation ( in reality a cull on free speech) The stuff of Orwellian big brother 1984. :-\
And Alec 'the fish' Salmon didn't get a single seat for Alba. I think they've finally banged a hole in the independence drum.
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Now 5 seats for Reform.
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So, 0.9% of the results in, and Labour are 6/6.
However, 5 of those are moot as they're seat that they've held. Whilst the outcome is the same, it isn't quite the same thing as a gain.
Looking at it, in outright numbers: I suspect Reform will see more votes this time than Labour managed last time, and Labour will receive less votes this time than Conservatives last time.
So:
Reform to exceed 10,300,000.
Labour to not exceed 13,966,000.
Conservatives to fail to reach 9,000,000.
Well...
Labour 9,686,329
Reform 4,092,209
Conservative 6,814,650
In the immortal words of Jim Steinmann/Meatloaf... Two outta three ain't bad. But it's hardly a ringing endorsement of Labour.
Under a different system, we could have woken to a Conservative/Reform coalition.
The 'problem' reason is that Reform(or whatever they're calling themselves this week) have never had a national strategy because they've always been a bunch of mismatched independents standing under one name. So instead of concentrating like Lib Dems on winnable seats, they dumped a load of candidates throughout the country and diluted - or eliminated - previous majorities that had a lot in common with their stated policies while getting less than 1% of Labour's MPs.
That's what happened in my constituency:
Reform 9989
Conservative 1169
Labour 13689,
whereas the previous Conservative MP had a majority of 18540. There was a boundary change which does affect the figures, but this has been a safe Conservative seat for a while.
You should not, at least if you're honest or competent, use just numbers to prove a national point either; look at the deliberately humiliating result for Liz Truss considering her previously untouchable majority, or the predictable result of Jeremy Corbin standing as an independent in his long held seat. It's also interesting to note how badly previous contenders for the Conservative leadership did - Mordaunt, Shapps, Reese-Mogg together with other senior ministers.
Sunak's time as leader is over; they just need to find another sucker, and I doubt it will be long before there's a bye-election as he tries to quietly slip away to more profitable employment.
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So, 0.9% of the results in, and Labour are 6/6.
However, 5 of those are moot as they're seat that they've held. Whilst the outcome is the same, it isn't quite the same thing as a gain.
Looking at it, in outright numbers: I suspect Reform will see more votes this time than Labour managed last time, and Labour will receive less votes this time than Conservatives last time.
So:
Reform to exceed 10,300,000.
Labour to not exceed 13,966,000.
Conservatives to fail to reach 9,000,000.
Well...
Labour 9,686,329
Reform 4,092,209
Conservative 6,814,650
In the immortal words of Jim Steinmann/Meatloaf... Two outta three ain't bad. But it's hardly a ringing endorsement of Labour.
Under a different system, we could have woken to a Conservative/Reform coalition.
The 'problem' reason is that Reform(or whatever they're calling themselves this week) have never had a national strategy because they've always been a bunch of mismatched independents standing under one name. So instead of concentrating like Lib Dems on winnable seats, they dumped a load of candidates throughout the country and diluted - or eliminated - previous majorities that had a lot in common with their stated policies while getting less than 1% of Labour's MPs.
That's what happened in my constituency:
Reform 9989
Conservative 1169
Labour 13689,
whereas the previous Conservative MP had a majority of 18540. There was a boundary change which does affect the figures, but this has been a safe Conservative seat for a while.
You should not, at least if you're honest or competent, use just numbers to prove a national point either; look at the deliberately humiliating result for Liz Truss considering her previously untouchable majority, or the predictable result of Jeremy Corbin standing as an independent in his long held seat. It's also interesting to note how badly previous contenders for the Conservative leadership did - Mordaunt, Shapps, Reese-Mogg together with other senior ministers.
Sunak's time as leader is over; they just need to find another sucker, and I doubt it will be long before there's a bye-election as he tries to quietly slip away to more profitable employment.
I hear that Rishi is worth £800M......which is possibly twice or three times what you are worth. :D ::)
I doubt he'll need to sign on. :)
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UKIP stood as a separate party so not sure where the confusion with Reform stems from ???
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Braverman for next Conservative leader?
Rishi already booked his flight to the USA to write his boook, do after dinner speeches and hold a few “board jobs” ?
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Braverman for next Conservative leader?
Rishi already booked his flight to the USA to write his boook, do after dinner speeches and hold a few “board jobs” ?
At least the woeful Tory party are the next opposition rather than the woke Libdems.
What opposition would the LD's be to a Labour goverment......virtually none.
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Under a different system, we could have woken to a Conservative/Reform coalition.
We would have woken up to chaos as both Labour and the Tories tried to cobble together coalitions or support agreements with the smaller but broadly aligned parties.
The Dutch have had to wait seven and a half months for a new government to be formed after their elections and the man who won the election Geert Wilders has been frozen out as the others refused to work with him, despite the mandate he got from the people. ::)
Meanwhile while the horse trading has gone on behind closed doors, Mark Rutte the incumbent PM has carried on in a caretaker role, but I guess no important decisions have been taken since the election. :-\
At least Sir Starmer has rolled his sleeves up and got down to work this afternoon appointing his cabinet and the business of government has carried on smoothly. Although he knocked off half an hour ago to play with the kids! ;D
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Braverman for next Conservative leader?
Rishi already booked his flight to the USA to write his boook, do after dinner speeches and hold a few “board jobs” ?
At least the woeful Tory party are the next opposition rather than the woke Libdems.
What opposition would the LD's be to a Labour goverment......virtually none.
This was my greatest fear to be honest. ::)
Although as Liz Truss found out, Sir Starmer may well find that the Bank of England is most effective opposition he has to deal with. :-X
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Under a different system, we could have woken to a Conservative/Reform coalition.
We would have woken up to chaos as both Labour and the Tories tried to cobble together coalitions or support agreements with the smaller but broadly aligned parties.
The Dutch have had to wait seven and a half months for a new government to be formed after their elections and the man who won the election Geert Wilders has been frozen out as the others refused to work with him, despite the mandate he got from the people. ::)
Meanwhile while the horse trading has gone on behind closed doors, Mark Rutte the incumbent PM has carried on in a caretaker role, but I guess no important decisions have been taken since the election. :-\
At least Sir Starmer has rolled his sleeves up and got down to work this afternoon appointing his cabinet and the business of government has carried on smoothly. Although he knocked off half an hour ago to play with the kids! ;D
I wonder how ' Mad Dog Lammy' will get on with a Trump administration should it happen?
Not well, I imagine. :)
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Under a different system, we could have woken to a Conservative/Reform coalition.
We would have woken up to chaos as both Labour and the Tories tried to cobble together coalitions or support agreements with the smaller but broadly aligned parties.
The Dutch have had to wait seven and a half months for a new government to be formed after their elections and the man who won the election Geert Wilders has been frozen out as the others refused to work with him, despite the mandate he got from the people. ::)
Meanwhile while the horse trading has gone on behind closed doors, Mark Rutte the incumbent PM has carried on in a caretaker role, but I guess no important decisions have been taken since the election. :-\
At least Sir Starmer has rolled his sleeves up and got down to work this afternoon appointing his cabinet and the business of government has carried on smoothly. Although he knocked off half an hour ago to play with the kids! ;D
I wonder how ' Mad Dog Lammy' will get on with a Trump administration should it happen?
Not well, I imagine. :)
This will be interesting. There are a whole host of Labour politicians who from the opposition benches took every opportunity to slag Trumpy off left, right and centre. ::)
I guess from the Government benches they will have to zip it, especially the front benchers. They will find this challenging! :)
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I suspect Trump will just refuse to have anything to do with him. :)
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I notice our beloved former leader Boris is strangely silent
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I suspect Trump will just refuse to have anything to do with him. :)
Yes he can palm off Lammy to his Secretary of State, but he might have to speak to Sir Starmer from time to time. ::)
Or maybe he doesn't have to. It's Trump we're talking about after all! ;D
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I notice our beloved former leader Boris is strangely silent
Here you go Red! (https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-13604919/BORIS-JOHNSON-Starmers-majority-built-sand-mile-wide-inch-deep-ten-point-guide-bashing-Labour-getting-power.html) :y
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I notice our beloved former leader Boris is strangely silent
Here you go Red! (https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-13604919/BORIS-JOHNSON-Starmers-majority-built-sand-mile-wide-inch-deep-ten-point-guide-bashing-Labour-getting-power.html) :y
Boris is a very skilled wordsmith. But, as we all know, actions speak louder than words, and his actions while in government were abhorrent.
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I notice our beloved former leader Boris is strangely silent
Here you go Red! (https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-13604919/BORIS-JOHNSON-Starmers-majority-built-sand-mile-wide-inch-deep-ten-point-guide-bashing-Labour-getting-power.html) :y
Boris is a very skilled wordsmith. But, as we all know, actions speak louder than words, and his actions while in government were abhorrent.
I fervently hoped that Boris wouldn't be the Boris that his critics accused him of, but he couldn't help being Boris. ::)
He must have been aware that the knives were out for him from day one over Brexit, but he was careless. Very careless. :-\
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I notice our beloved former leader Boris is strangely silent
Here you go Red! (https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-13604919/BORIS-JOHNSON-Starmers-majority-built-sand-mile-wide-inch-deep-ten-point-guide-bashing-Labour-getting-power.html) :y
Boris is a very skilled wordsmith. But, as we all know, actions speak louder than words, and his actions while in government were abhorrent.
I fervently hoped that Boris wouldn't be the Boris that his critics accused him of, but he couldn't help being Boris. ::)
He must have been aware that the knives were out for him from day one over Brexit, but he was careless. Very careless. :-\
When he finally decided (was pushed) to leave office he had 150 Tory knives sticking out of his back. ::)
That couldn't happen now as there are only 121 Tory MP's left.
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I notice our beloved former leader Boris is strangely silent
Here you go Red! (https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-13604919/BORIS-JOHNSON-Starmers-majority-built-sand-mile-wide-inch-deep-ten-point-guide-bashing-Labour-getting-power.html) :y
I almost wish I hadn't clicked on that link, because for the first time I find myself agreeing with Boris' analysis that the large number of votes for Reform are the reason for the difference between the Conservative and Labour numbers. It's the definition of tactical voting by conservatives to give the Conservatives Party a well-earnt kicking without actually voting for a left wing party. It also doesn't bode well for Reform in the next election when the Conservative supporters will have had five years to forget just how incompetent their party was.
Fortunately, his list of how to get back into power was the same trite fantasies he's been peddling for years. He also seems to have double down on Blair's pompously arrogant post-PM attitude of 'let me explain it for you'.
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I notice our beloved former leader Boris is strangely silent
Here you go Red! (https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-13604919/BORIS-JOHNSON-Starmers-majority-built-sand-mile-wide-inch-deep-ten-point-guide-bashing-Labour-getting-power.html) :y
I almost wish I hadn't clicked on that link, because for the first time I find myself agreeing with Boris' analysis that the large number of votes for Reform are the reason for the difference between the Conservative and Labour numbers. It's the definition of tactical voting by conservatives to give the Conservatives Party a well-earnt kicking without actually voting for a left wing party. It also doesn't bode well for Reform in the next election when the Conservative supporters will have had five years to forget just how incompetent their party was.
Fortunately, his list of how to get back into power was the same trite fantasies he's been peddling for years. He also seems to have double down on Blair's pompously arrogant post-PM attitude of 'let me explain it for you'.
Depends who the Tory party pick as their next leader (victim)
If they pick a right wing leader who is actually conservative then Reform may have problems.
However, most Tory MP's are effectively wet Liberal Democrats and my guess is that one of these will get the job.
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IMV - if the Conservatives lurch even further to the right in an attempt to win back Reform voters, then they'll lose even bigger next time. For every one right wing voter they win back they'll lose two left wing voters to either Labour or one of the centerist parties - Green, LibDem etc.
Elections are won by winning the votes of the centre ground - Major, Blair, Cameron and Starmer all knew/know this. The Labour party under Corbyn went too far (far too far!) to the left and lost big. The Conservatives have made the same mistake (opposite polarity obvs) under Johnson and Truss. They need to lose their ERG loonatics in the same way as Labour has largely side-lined the Momentum lot.
You'll probably say yeah, but Reform got 4.1 million votes vs the Conservative 6.8 million. Irrelevant. The UK system is FPTP so what really matters is who comes first and second in every seat. If a voter decides they're fed up with the Conservatives and want to oust their sitting Conservative MP, they'll hold their nose and vote for whoever came second last time. Hence why the Lib Dems have done so well with 72 seats on 'only' 3.5 million votes.
I fear the Conservatives will choose either Braverman or Badenoch as their next leader. If they do that they're doomed almost regardless of what the Starmer govt do.
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Are there any centrist parties now ?
Thatcher and Blair won three elections each and were both radicals. Thatcher an economic radical and Blair a social radical.
The Tory party has followed the Westminster bubble to the left both socially and economically, believing that opinions of the people in Westminster and the mainstream media represent those in the country at large.
They have just found out that this isnt the case.
Labour have just won a landslide with less votes than Corbyn got when he was trounced at the last election, which question the assertion that voters always head to the centre ground.
People went to reform because the Tories have been utterly incompetent and dishonest in all sorts of ways and have allowed immigration to explode to previously unimagined numbers, while all the time saying they were going to bring the numbers down.
People just didnt believe or trust them anymore, and rightly so.
This was a very strange election indeed. Partly due to the Reform effect, and partly due to people voting Labour, not because they want them in Govt. but because they really want the Tories out of Govt.
Very few people have ended up with what they really want because the obvious left wing parties - Labour, Libdems, Greens, got less votes combined than Reform and the Tories did.
Although I dont see how anyone could call todays Tory party right wing. And many of those who voted for the left wing parties felt joy at the Tories losing, but not Labour winning.
That combined with a low turnout has meant that Labour won a landslide with the votes of approx. 20% of the electorate
In summary, the voting system needs to change, but it wont be easy to achieve.
P.S. I think we will find out over the next few years that Starmer is at least as far left as Corbyn, but like Blair before him he has disguised it in order to win the election.
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IMV - if the Conservatives lurch even further to the right in an attempt to win back Reform voters, then they'll lose even bigger next time. For every one right wing voter they win back they'll lose two left wing voters to either Labour or one of the centerist parties - Green, LibDem etc.
Elections are won by winning the votes of the centre ground - Major, Blair, Cameron and Starmer all knew/know this. The Labour party under Corbyn went too far (far too far!) to the left and lost big. The Conservatives have made the same mistake (opposite polarity obvs) under Johnson and Truss. They need to lose their ERG loonatics in the same way as Labour has largely side-lined the Momentum lot.
You'll probably say yeah, but Reform got 4.1 million votes vs the Conservative 6.8 million. Irrelevant. The UK system is FPTP so what really matters is who comes first and second in every seat. If a voter decides they're fed up with the Conservatives and want to oust their sitting Conservative MP, they'll hold their nose and vote for whoever came second last time. Hence why the Lib Dems have done so well with 72 seats on 'only' 3.5 million votes.
I fear the Conservatives will choose either Braverman or Badenoch as their next leader. If they do that they're doomed almost regardless of what the Starmer govt do.
Boris was/is anything but right wing.
Totally happy with unlimited immigration and pretty woke and green to boot.......especially when Carrie lays down the law.
More of a Libdem in my view.
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He should form his own Boris party. Vote for me because Im Boris and thats a great thing to be. Tell me what you want to hear and I will make sure thats what I tell you. ::)
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Are there any centrist parties now ?
Thatcher and Blair won three elections each and were both radicals. Thatcher an economic radical and Blair a social radical.
The Tory party has followed the Westminster bubble to the left both socially and economically, believing that opinions of the people in Westminster represent those in the country at large.
They have just found out that this isnt the case.
L
Somehow, you seem to be looking in the wrong end of your telescope :o Thatcher's more radical policies were more towards the reduction of the post-war social structures while economically she was nothing out of the ordinary for a Conservative.
Blair wasn't, and isn't a radical anything. Unless you count leading a shuffle to the centre to make party more electable, which no-one can deny was successful. He would have been equally at home as a Tory 'wet'.
That's one real problem with British politics, as for various reasons large numbers of both Conservative and Labour members, and MPs ought to be Lib Dems. That would lead to most governments being a small Lib Dem majority with the main opposition swapping between the other 2 parties depending on the mood of the country.
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Boris was/is anything but right wing.
Totally happy with unlimited immigration and pretty woke and green to boot.......especially when Carrie lays down the law.
More of a Libdem in my view.
See above. Politically he and Blair could be twins, including their equally odious natures.
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.You'll probably say yeah, but Reform got 4.1 million votes vs the Conservative 6.8 million. Irrelevant. The UK system is FPTP so what really matters is who comes first and second in every seat. If a voter decides they're fed up with the Conservatives and want to oust their sitting Conservative MP, they'll hold their nose and vote for whoever came second last time. Hence why the Lib Dems have done so well with 72 seats on 'only' 3.5 million votes.
With 412 Labour MPs, we can expect a significant amount of by elections over the next 5 years where the incumbent Labour MP has gone for whatever reason, and in places where Reform came second. There are over a 100 constituencies where Reform came in a comfortable second from Labour.
As to the Tories, they really need to decide what kind of party they are. Either a Blairite centrist tribute act, or a small 'c' conservative right of centre party that believes in the low tax, small state, controlled immigration model. They can't be both.
Sir Starmer has already scrapped the Rwanda plan and when the weather improves and surge in dinghy crossings is expected. This surge has already been dubbed The Starmada! ;D
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Sir Starmer has already scrapped the Rwanda plan and when the weather improves and surge in dinghy crossings is expected. This surge has already been dubbed The Starmada! ;D
The concentration on immigration is the major problem for the Conservatives. We now have 100% control on legal immigration - 685K net last year. We have 0% control on illegal immigration - which was somewhere around 50K-55K.
There is nothing anyone can do about illegal immigration - never is, never was - unless you want to blockade/declare war on France. So all the while the ERG zealots drive the Conservative party banging on about dingys and coming up with more and more balmy ideas, it just turns more and more people off them. They need to accept there is nothing that can be done about illegal immigration, and move on to explaining policies to the public that can actually work.
Starmers best option IMV is to try and control legal immigration. If he can reduce that by (say) 10% each year then it'll be about 50% (350K p/a) lower by the time of the next election. That'll be much easier to claim as a 'win' rather than concentrating on the 55K p/a illegals. The problem being of course that things like the NHS and Social care rely on immigrants.
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Sir Starmer has already scrapped the Rwanda plan and when the weather improves and surge in dinghy crossings is expected. This surge has already been dubbed The Starmada! ;D
The concentration on immigration is the major problem for the Conservatives. We now have 100% control on legal immigration - 685K net last year. We have 0% control on illegal immigration - which was somewhere around 50K-55K.
There is nothing anyone can do about illegal immigration - never is, never was - unless you want to blockade/declare war on France. So all the while the ERG zealots drive the Conservative party banging on about dingys and coming up with more and more balmy ideas, it just turns more and more people off them. They need to accept there is nothing that can be done about illegal immigration, and move on to explaining policies to the public that can actually work.
Starmers best option IMV is to try and control legal immigration. If he can reduce that by (say) 10% each year then it'll be about 50% (350K p/a) lower by the time of the next election. That'll be much easier to claim as a 'win' rather than concentrating on the 55K p/a illegals. The problem being of course that things like the NHS and Social care rely on immigrants.
Make the illegals legal and then give them the NHS and social care jobs. What could possibly go wrong. :D
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....
- unless you want to blockade/declare war on France. ....
sounds like a plan ::) ::) ..... we've done it before! ;D ;D
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....
- unless you want to blockade/declare war on France. ....
sounds like a plan ::) ::) ..... we've done it before! ;D ;D
Perhaps, when we had a navy. Nowadays I think we're down to something like 20 'proper' ships (frigates, destroyers, carriers), so we'd probably lose.
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That applies to all our forces I’m afraid.
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.You'll probably say yeah, but Reform got 4.1 million votes vs the Conservative 6.8 million. Irrelevant. The UK system is FPTP so what really matters is who comes first and second in every seat. If a voter decides they're fed up with the Conservatives and want to oust their sitting Conservative MP, they'll hold their nose and vote for whoever came second last time. Hence why the Lib Dems have done so well with 72 seats on 'only' 3.5 million votes.
With 412 Labour MPs, we can expect a significant amount of by elections over the next 5 years where the incumbent Labour MP has gone for whatever reason, and in places where Reform came second. There are over a 100 constituencies where Reform came in a comfortable second from Labour.
This is the attitude I'm warning against. Labour have a majority of 86 or so, although in practice it's more since Sinn Fein never take their seats. The belief that if the 100 or so constituencies which had Reform second had all voted for the Conservative candidate instead is simply flawed, for several reasons.
1) In the 2019 election, UKIP came second in 120 seats. So coming second in 100 seats (and winning 5) isn't really any advance.
2) The belief that all reform voters are ex Conservatives is questionable and probabaly wrong.
3) To 'win' back all the reform voters, the conservatives would have to move so far to the right that they would lose even more voters to the centre (LibDem or Green) or even Labour.
4) The 100 or so seats where Con+Ref would have won were not all won by Labour - so winning a seat back from (say) the LibDems does nothing to reduce the Lab majority.
The Conservatives need to win back votes from the LibDems and Labour, not UKIP/Reform. If they do not realise that, then they're going to lose the next election too.
And I doubt there will be very many by-elections either. Most of the new crop of MP's are wet behind the ears PPE graduates straight out of university, so will live for years, and I would expect their parties to have checked their Twitbook and Faceache histories for anything mildly contentious.
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Holy shit,, nice one mate🤣👍. Well put.👍
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Are Sinn Fein allowed to take their seats? I thought they were prevented from doing so by anti terrorism legislation :-X
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None of this really matters right now, the deed is done. Now be good boys and open wide.
(Both your backsides and your wallets) ;D
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Labour have a majority of 86 or so.....
Were have you been these last few days? ??? Labour have a majority of 174. ::) ;D
1) In the 2019 election, UKIP came second in 120 seats.
UKIP barely existed in 2019. :P
And I doubt there will be very many by-elections either. Most of the new crop of MP's are wet behind the ears PPE graduates straight out of university, so will live for years, and I would expect their parties to have checked their Twitbook and Faceache histories for anything mildly contentious.
Yes you might be right about that, but the thing with wet behind the ears PPE grads straight out of Uni though is the scope for them to naively do and say stupid things. ::)
Especially if Rachel Reeves is true to her word about being fiscally responsible. There will be alot of frustrated Labour MPs if she doesn't open the spending taps.
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Labour have a majority of 86 or so.....
Were have you been these last few days? ??? Labour have a majority of 174. ::) ;D
Misspoke - what I meant was the Conservatives need a swing of 86 seats from Labour. Yes they have a 174 vote parliamentary majority.
1) In the 2019 election, UKIP came second in 120 seats.
UKIP barely existed in 2019. :P
According to this (yes it's the Grauniad, so coud be fantasy)....
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2024/jul/05/eleven-charts-that-show-how-labour-won-by-a-landslide
[quote = "The Guardian"]
The Brexit party came in second place in only three constituencies in 2019, although it did not contest Conservative-held seats. While Farage’s Ukip won only one seat in 2015, it came second in 120 constituencies.
[/quote]
So UKIP came second in 120 seats but didn't even fight in any Conservative ones? And this time Reform came second in 100 seats whilst it did contest Conservative seats. Doesn't sound like any kind of advance to me. I fully expect Respect to go the same way as UKIP, SDP etc and just end up a footnote in UK political history.
And I doubt there will be very many by-elections either. Most of the new crop of MP's are wet behind the ears PPE graduates straight out of university, so will live for years, and I would expect their parties to have checked their Twitbook and Faceache histories for anything mildly contentious.
Yes you might be right about that, but the thing with wet behind the ears PPE grads straight out of Uni though is the scope for them to naively do and say stupid things. ::)
Especially if Rachel Reeves is true to her word about being fiscally responsible. There will be alot of frustrated Labour MPs if she doesn't open the spending taps.
It takes time for political dessent to grow, and for political corruption to fester. I just can't see anything significant happening in the first term, when everyone will tow the line to avoid scaring the horses. Starmer/Reeves will have to be tough on the unions though - probably by promising them jam tomorrow.
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Are Sinn Fein allowed to take their seats? I thought they were prevented from doing so by anti terrorism legislation :-X
Yes, they're allowed to take their seats providing the swear allegiance to the King. Which they won't, so they can't.
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....
- unless you want to blockade/declare war on France. ....
sounds like a plan ::) ::) ..... we've done it before! ;D ;D
Perhaps, when we had a navy. Nowadays I think we're down to something like 20 'proper' ships (frigates, destroyers, carriers), so we'd probably lose.
That's about the same as the French navy....
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With 412 Labour MPs, we can expect a significant amount of by elections over the next 5 years where the incumbent Labour MP has gone for whatever reason, and in places where Reform came second. There are over a 100 constituencies where Reform came in a comfortable second from Labour.
As to the Tories, they really need to decide what kind of party they are. Either a Blairite centrist tribute act, or a small 'c' conservative right of centre party that believes in the low tax, small state, controlled immigration model. They can't be both.
Sir Starmer has already scrapped the Rwanda plan and when the weather improves and surge in dinghy crossings is expected. This surge has already been dubbed The Starmada! ;D
What would you consider a significant number? There have been 59 parliamentary by elections in the last 14 years.
Anyone who thinks you can extrapolate by-election results to a full one has either never looked at such results, or is deluding themselves. Actually, they're more likely to be doing both. By-elections are frequently used to give whoever is in power a good kicking. And that's basically what happened with Reform in this election; much of that support will bleed back to the Conservatives, just like the switch between Labour and Conservative in the last one.
The tories turning onto a Blairite centrist tribute act would be like placing two empty mirrors opposite each other ;D ;D
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With 412 Labour MPs, we can expect a significant amount of by elections over the next 5 years where the incumbent Labour MP has gone for whatever reason, and in places where Reform came second. There are over a 100 constituencies where Reform came in a comfortable second from Labour.
As to the Tories, they really need to decide what kind of party they are. Either a Blairite centrist tribute act, or a small 'c' conservative right of centre party that believes in the low tax, small state, controlled immigration model. They can't be both.
Sir Starmer has already scrapped the Rwanda plan and when the weather improves and surge in dinghy crossings is expected. This surge has already been dubbed The Starmada! ;D
What would you consider a significant number? There have been 59 parliamentary by elections in the last 14 years.
Anyone who thinks you can extrapolate by-election results to a full one has either never looked at such results, or is deluding themselves. Actually, they're more likely to be doing both. By-elections are frequently used to give whoever is in power a good kicking. And that's basically what happened with Reform in this election; much of that support will bleed back to the Conservatives, just like the switch between Labour and Conservative in the last one.
The tories turning onto a Blairite centrist tribute act would be like placing two empty mirrors opposite each other ;D ;D
What I meant by that, is with the large numbers of Labour MP's, a significant number of By Elections will be where the incumbent Labour MP has had to stand down for one reason or another. Maybe I could have worded it better, but I wasn't saying that there will be more by elections during this parliament than any other.
Malcolm said that in By Elections it's often the candidate who came second in the General Election that win the By Election, and I just pointed out that Reform came second in over 100 seats, so by that theory they could have more MPs by the next General Election.
As to Reforms prospects, comparing them to UKIP in 2015 is daft. David Cameron had just won a surprising majority ousting the Lib Dems from government which in theory should have allowed him to follow a small 'c' conservative agenda and he announced the EU referendum quickly which completely and utterly neutered UKIP. Todays Tories are a defeated rabble in search of a cause, and the battle for the soul of the party is just beginning. It will be a long time before they get their act together. Get your popcorn out folks! ::)
Meanwhile, the small boats will continue coming across the Channel and these undocumented young men from the Middle East and Africa will be dispersed around the country. They will become a common sight hanging around in groups in parks and town centres. Tales of young girls being approached, followed, propositioned, sexually abused and even raped by these men will spread like wildfire on social media, as much as the media try to pretend it isn't happening.
Farage and Reform, will be the only people talking about this. They will hold Trump style rallies around the country which will attract large numbers of pissed off people and even more people will watch the livestreams. The media will of course dismiss them as racist bigots and will try to ignore these rallies as they did with the Reform rally at the NEC last weekend where 5000 turned up. It was the biggest election event held by any of the political parties. They now have funding and will keep their profile high, so they could well do well at By Elections.
The flip side to this coin is if Labour manage to stop the boats and drastically cut legal immigration, then Reforms reason for being will be as neutered as UKIP's was in 2015. That seems unlikely though... ::)
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With 412 Labour MPs, we can expect a significant amount of by elections over the next 5 years where the incumbent Labour MP has gone for whatever reason, and in places where Reform came second. There are over a 100 constituencies where Reform came in a comfortable second from Labour.
As to the Tories, they really need to decide what kind of party they are. Either a Blairite centrist tribute act, or a small 'c' conservative right of centre party that believes in the low tax, small state, controlled immigration model. They can't be both.
Sir Starmer has already scrapped the Rwanda plan and when the weather improves and surge in dinghy crossings is expected. This surge has already been dubbed The Starmada! ;D
What would you consider a significant number? There have been 59 parliamentary by elections in the last 14 years.
Anyone who thinks you can extrapolate by-election results to a full one has either never looked at such results, or is deluding themselves. Actually, they're more likely to be doing both. By-elections are frequently used to give whoever is in power a good kicking. And that's basically what happened with Reform in this election; much of that support will bleed back to the Conservatives, just like the switch between Labour and Conservative in the last one.
The tories turning onto a Blairite centrist tribute act would be like placing two empty mirrors opposite each other ;D ;D
What I meant by that, is with the large numbers of Labour MP's, a significant number of By Elections will be where the incumbent Labour MP has had to stand down for one reason or another. Maybe I could have worded it better, but I wasn't saying that there will be more by elections during this parliament than any other.
Malcolm said that in By Elections it's often the candidate who came second in the General Election that win the By Election, and I just pointed out that Reform came second in over 100 seats, so by that theory they could have more MPs by the next General Election.
As to Reforms prospects, comparing them to UKIP in 2015 is daft. David Cameron had just won a surprising majority ousting the Lib Dems from government which in theory should have allowed him to follow a small 'c' conservative agenda and he announced the EU referendum quickly which completely and utterly neutered UKIP. Todays Tories are a defeated rabble in search of a cause, and the battle for the soul of the party is just beginning. It will be a long time before they get their act together. Get your popcorn out folks! ::)
Meanwhile, the small boats will continue coming across the Channel and these undocumented young men from the Middle East and Africa will be dispersed around the country. They will become a common sight hanging around in groups in parks and town centres. Tales of young girls being approached, followed, propositioned, sexually abused and even raped by these men will spread like wildfire on social media, as much as the media try to pretend it isn't happening.
Farage and Reform, will be the only people talking about this. They will hold Trump style rallies around the country which will attract large numbers of pissed off people and even more people will watch the livestreams. The media will of course dismiss them as racist bigots and will try to ignore these rallies as they did with the Reform rally at the NEC last weekend where 5000 turned up. It was the biggest election event held by any of the political parties. They now have funding and will keep their profile high, so they could well do well at By Elections.
The flip side to this coin is if Labour manage to stop the boats and drastically cut legal immigration, then Reforms reason for being will be as neutered as UKIP's was in 2015. That seems unlikely though... ::)
Rest assured, (for want of a much better phrase), this is happening all across northern Europe. Eventually the locals will do something about it and it won't be pretty.
It might actually be better to move all the decent people to Rwanda and set up a decent society founded on something more meaningful than rainbows and money trees.
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I see videos and articles almost everyday of and about crazy shit happening on the Continent on X with illegals from Africa and the Middle East.
Todays (so far) was footage of an African man calmly walking into a petrol station somewhere in Italy, pulling out a petrol pump nozzle, spraying petrol everywhere, and calmly walking away after setting it alight! :o
Things are much worse on the Continent than they are here, but if they keep coming, it will only get worse here as well. >:(
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There is a solution, but it will never happen from government with a human rights lawyer as PM :-X
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Well said Steve, and very true, pity these do gooders don’t seem to get affected by it all. It’s obviously going to get worse now with this lot in, although the last lot were shit too💁🏿♂️
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Well said Steve, and very true, pity these do gooders don’t seem to get affected by it all. It’s obviously going to get worse now with this lot in, although the last lot were shit too💁🏿♂️
Well Angela Rayner said before the election that every town and city will have to take its fair share of migrants, so if she is true to her word then they will be dispersed to the leafy suburbs and nice areas where the do gooders live. ::)
They might think differently when it's their teenage daughter getting pestered and followed home from school! :-X
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This is from Helsinki, Finland. Sweden has a similar problem.
https://x.com/DaveAtherton20/status/1810233877870395829 (https://x.com/DaveAtherton20/status/1810233877870395829)
‘Sharmuta’ apparently means ‘sl*t’ or ‘wh*re’
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Yes these folk haven’t evolved enough to integrate with our society so they should not be allowed to come here FFS.
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I think we need to do what Starmer and Lammy did after the Brexit vote.
Due to the fact that people didnt know what they were voting for and only a third of the votes (as opposed to 52%) went to the victors, we need to demand a second vote and give people the chance to change their minds, after we educate them into the right way of thinking.
Failing that, take it through the courts and get a tame judge to muddy the waters to help us overturn the result.
As Lammy said " This must not be allowed to happen. We need to stop this madness". :D
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I think we need to do what Starmer and Lammy did after the Brexit vote.
Due to the fact that people didnt know what they were voting for and only a third of the votes (as opposed to 52%) went to the victors, we need to demand a second vote and give people the chance to change their minds, after we educate them into the right way of thinking.
Failing that, take it through the courts and get a tame judge to muddy the waters to help us overturn the result.
As Lammy said " This must not be allowed to happen. We need to stop this madness". :D
Ah...but Starmer and Lammy will tell you that the Labour vote came via educated left wing progressives, who know right from wrong, whilst the Brexit vote was decided by uneducated right wing racist bigots. ::)
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They’ll spew their usual pretentious shit as usual then you mean?
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I think we need to do what Starmer and Lammy did after the Brexit vote.
Due to the fact that people didnt know what they were voting for and only a third of the votes (as opposed to 52%) went to the victors, we need to demand a second vote and give people the chance to change their minds, after we educate them into the right way of thinking.
Failing that, take it through the courts and get a tame judge to muddy the waters to help us overturn the result.
As Lammy said " This must not be allowed to happen. We need to stop this madness". :D
Ah...but Starmer and Lammy will tell you that the Labour vote came via educated left wing progressives, who know right from wrong, whilst the Brexit vote was decided by uneducated right wing racist bigots. ::)
They are right, up to a point.
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Sir Starmer visiting Sleepy Joe in the Oval Office must have been a bit like visiting your senile Great Uncle in the care home! ;D
" Gimme your hand there pal! " ::)
https://order-order.com/2024/07/11/watch-starmers-awkward-meeting-with-biden/
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Ol' Sippy Cup didn't seem to be particularly impressed by SKS ;D
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Ol' Sippy Cup didn't seem to be particularly impressed by SKS ;D
He'd obviously forgotten who he was with. ::)
At least he didn't call him President Putin! :o ;D
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Sleepy Joe isnt impressed with anyone British. He hates us and doesnt really try to hide it.
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Sleepy Joe isnt impressed with anyone British. He hates us and doesnt really try to hide it.
Yup , another American who can't get away from the old "Irish homeland" shite >:(