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[cem_devecioglu]

one important fact is; Russia have lots of investments,money and effort in Ukraine like factories, energy units, schools, universities, banks, govt buildings, roads, hospitals and many other things.. if you expect Russians and Putin to say bye bye to this much money , effort and history, I'm afraid you have to wait long

Sevastopol. Access to the Mediterranean and the western seas. Russia will never let that go, until their next political collapse.

There you go, I've fixed that for you. Long term, Russia will collapse again, where Putin's dictatorial style of government is unsustainable. Most regions provide money inflows to Moscow, where a teacher and a skilled worker will earn $2000 a month, where in the regions they only earn $200 or less. This is increasing resentment and tensions that will not go away without Moscow having less (which is not possible under Putin) and the regions having more. When Russia collapses again then the semi-Federated states, many of whom have ethnic majorities will become independent states, hence due to political mismanagement, Russia will get even smaller and insignificant. Crimea may become part of Chechnya or Ukraine again. Crimea is too weak economically to be an independent country without an external benefactor to the tune of $6bn a year.

Demographics are a challenge for all of Europe, but long term are especially challenging for Ethnic-Russians and some other ex-Soviet states. As things stand major population growth (but slowing down) is mainly happening in Africa, South America, Asia and the Middle East. Where Adults have about 40 hours of economic output from the ages of 20 to about 60, this matters in terms of long term economic strength, until Robots and AI machines are clever and cheap enough to take over doing the majority of work.

will you bet on that prediction


many ottoman sultans spend their life waiting for that and than west politicans .. and I'm afraid they are still very strong  

[Rods2]

one important fact is; Russia have lots of investments,money and effort in Ukraine like factories, energy units, schools, universities, banks, govt buildings, roads, hospitals and many other things.. if you expect Russians and Putin to say bye bye to this much money , effort and history, I'm afraid you have to wait long

Sevastopol. Access to the Mediterranean and the western seas. Russia will never let that go. Ever.

yep.. thats the most critical fact that Russians solved at the blink of an eye..

Russia likes to play being the friend but then takes advantage of any situation that comes along, like the political turmoil in Kiev. A bit like a so called friend stealing your wallet while you are unconscious after a road accident.

But in this case they didn't find any cash just an IOU for $6bn to pay every year.

It is the same with industry in East Ukraine, their only market is Russia, where they are still churning out Soviet era quality of goods that have no market in any Western country, they will have been better off letting the west having to pay the subsidies, rather than Russia, who will also be facing a hostile majority of the population, who they will have to buy off or fight off.

As Professor Mark Galeotti an expert on modern Russian has said is that Russia had an agreement for the base in Crimea until 2042 at very little cost per year. With Yanukovych he had a president who practically had 'Kremin' tattooed on his forehead, but because he was so determined to stop him signing the EU free trade agreement, he has now lost him. What Putin is doing makes no logical sense, his emotion over EU agreement has got the better of him. In return for his invasion of Crimea he is gaining nothing that he didn't already have.

With sanctions and other restrictions with Western countries, who will now only deal with him because they have to, not because they want to, he will have gained popularity at home for a bit, but at a much bigger long term cost.

[05omegav6]

one important fact is; Russia have lots of investments,money and effort in Ukraine like factories, energy units, schools, universities, banks, govt buildings, roads, hospitals and many other things.. if you expect Russians and Putin to say bye bye to this much money , effort and history, I'm afraid you have to wait long

Sevastopol. Access to the Mediterranean and the western seas. Russia will never let that go. Ever.

yep.. thats the most critical fact that Russians solved at the blink of an eye..

Russia likes to play being the friend but then takes advantage of any situation that comes along, like the political turmoil in Kiev. A bit like a so called friend stealing your wallet while you are unconscious after a road accident.

But in this case they didn't find any cash just an IOU for $6bn to pay every year.

It is the same with industry in East Ukraine, their only market is Russia, where they are still churning out Soviet era quality of goods that have no market in any Western country, they will have been better off letting the west having to pay the subsidies, rather than Russia, who will also be facing a hostile majority of the population, who they will have to buy off or fight off.

As Professor Mark Galeotti an expert on modern Russian has said is that Russia had an agreement for the base in Crimea until 2042 at very little cost per year. With Yanukovych he had a president who practically had 'Kremin' tattooed on his forehead, but because he was so determined to stop him signing the EU free trade agreement, he has now lost him. What Putin is doing makes no logical sense, his emotion over EU agreement has got the better of him. In return for his invasion of Crimea he is gaining nothing that he didn't already have.

With sanctions and other restrictions with Western countries, who will now only deal with him because they have to, not because they want to, he will have gained popularity at home for a bit, but at a much bigger long term cost.

So lets be clear, Putin already has/had guaranteed access to Crimea, His country buys everything Ukraine produces in exchange for energy, and with that in mind he is mindful of the leadership of Ukraine.

So all the speculation is over what might happen if a situation arises where Putin invades a country he already owns and has free access to?

Another non story perhaps, afterall, there is still no news of an actual invasion

[Rods2]

Strategically, he will not gain what he did not already have to a large degree, but he over stepped the mark with Yanukovych, over the EU free trade agreement, in by reports with a swear word ridden rant at him on a visit to the Kremlin. Yanukovych  was deposed, so Russia at that point lost their inside track. Now if you think Ukraine is going to join the EU / NATO with no base renewal in 2042 then the invasion and annexation of Crimea makes strategic sense. Likewise, if you want to subjugate a people as they won't do what you want, then invasion is historically a popular option. But recent history with Afghanistan (twice) and Iraq have shown that invading and winning the peace are two quite different things.

Unfortunately, the civilian populations normally greatly suffer, as is currently happening in East Ukraine and Russians have a long record of brutal oppression with Chechnya the most recent example.

[05omegav6]

If it's that inevitable, why resist

[Rods2]

If it's that inevitable, why resist

Costs on how far they go.

[Lizzie_Zoom]

one important fact is; Russia have lots of investments,money and effort in Ukraine like factories, energy units, schools, universities, banks, govt buildings, roads, hospitals and many other things.. if you expect Russians and Putin to say bye bye to this much money , effort and history, I'm afraid you have to wait long

Sevastopol. Access to the Mediterranean and the western seas. Russia will never let that go. Ever.

yep.. thats the most critical fact that Russians solved at the blink of an eye..

Russia likes to play being the friend but then takes advantage of any situation that comes along, like the political turmoil in Kiev. A bit like a so called friend stealing your wallet while you are unconscious after a road accident.

But in this case they didn't find any cash just an IOU for $6bn to pay every year.

It is the same with industry in East Ukraine, their only market is Russia, where they are still churning out Soviet era quality of goods that have no market in any Western country, they will have been better off letting the west having to pay the subsidies, rather than Russia, who will also be facing a hostile majority of the population, who they will have to buy off or fight off.

As Professor Mark Galeotti an expert on modern Russian has said is that Russia had an agreement for the base in Crimea until 2042 at very little cost per year. With Yanukovych he had a president who practically had 'Kremin' tattooed on his forehead, but because he was so determined to stop him signing the EU free trade agreement, he has now lost him. What Putin is doing makes no logical sense, his emotion over EU agreement has got the better of him. In return for his invasion of Crimea he is gaining nothing that he didn't already have.

With sanctions and other restrictions with Western countries, who will now only deal with him because they have to, not because they want to, he will have gained popularity at home for a bit, but at a much bigger long term cost.

So lets be clear, Putin already has/had guaranteed access to Crimea, His country buys everything Ukraine produces in exchange for energy, and with that in mind he is mindful of the leadership of Ukraine.

So all the speculation is over what might happen if a situation arises where Putin invades a country he already owns and has free access to?

Another non story perhaps, afterall, there is still no news of an actual invasion

Exactly, and no reason for losing any British, American, or other European lives, let alone risking WWIII.

Putin is no Hitler, lacking both the ability, let alone finance, to form and march an army across Europe against the diplomatic will, along with embargo "weapons", of Nato / The United Nations.

As I stated before, we should leave well alone.

[chrisgixer]

Only way forward (HOUSE*) I see for Ukrain is, to either accept Russian leadership, or come to some agreement on Crimea/Sevastapol allowing them un challenged access.

They will take it anyway, it's just a case of damage limitation. Saving Ukrainian lives in the process.

From what I saw of coverage a few weeks ago, the Russians had little interest in anything else.

Its a bit like Ussr putting missiles in Chile. You have to accept that the USA will never allow that. Likewise....


Or even uk interest in Gibraltar.


(*apologies for the W#*$k word bingo entry)

[Sir Tigger KC]

It's 1600 miles, by motorway, from Moscow to Calais, about 32 hours at 50mph, so depending on Belarus, expect to lose Poland before any defence is mounted

What's the fare Drive?   

[05omegav6]

It's 1600 miles, by motorway, from Moscow to Calais, about 32 hours at 50mph, so depending on Belarus, expect to lose Poland before any defence is mounted

What's the fare Drive?   

Including the stupid question tax, about £4800

[Sir Tigger KC]

It's 1600 miles, by motorway, from Moscow to Calais, about 32 hours at 50mph, so depending on Belarus, expect to lose Poland before any defence is mounted

What's the fare Drive?   

Including the stupid question tax, about £4800

I get back to you.   

[Rods2]

It's 1600 miles, by motorway, from Moscow to Calais, about 32 hours at 50mph, so depending on Belarus, expect to lose Poland before any defence is mounted

What's the fare Drive?   

Including the stupid question tax, about £4800

I get back to you.   

Who provides the Kalashnikovs?

[Sir Tigger KC]

It's 1600 miles, by motorway, from Moscow to Calais, about 32 hours at 50mph, so depending on Belarus, expect to lose Poland before any defence is mounted

What's the fare Drive?   

Including the stupid question tax, about £4800

I get back to you.   

Who provides the Kalashnikovs?

At that price Al and I want proper Russian AK's! None of your Chinese rubbish!! 

[05omegav6]

I'm sure we can find summat suitable in Belarus...

For that price you get the ful blue light treatment

[Sir Tigger KC]

I'm sure we can find summat suitable in Belarus...

For that price you get the ful blue light treatment

Good idea!    If we take the Merc we'll probably end up dead in a ditch somewhere.....