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Author Topic: A black hole in market  (Read 2722 times)

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cem_devecioglu

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A black hole in market
« on: 15 September 2008, 14:21:07 »

Seems like this is no more a short term crysis..And will effect many countries.. :-?

I'm curious while all these happen everybody fall a sleep :(


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1055736/Black-Monday-Bank-England-pumps-5bn-markets-collapse-Wall-Street-giant-Lehman-Brothers.html
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Jay w

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Re: A black hole in market
« Reply #1 on: 15 September 2008, 15:22:19 »

WOW!!! where does this end???

i only hope that the 'tremors' are not felt too badly over here
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cem_devecioglu

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Re: A black hole in market
« Reply #2 on: 15 September 2008, 15:26:36 »

As from global economy , most of the markets are strongly connected..I'm afraid will effect also UK..(I dont think this will be minimal)

Problem is ,you cant estimate whoever have those worthless papers in their hands now..
« Last Edit: 15 September 2008, 15:27:19 by cem_devecioglu »
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cem_devecioglu

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Re: A black hole in market
« Reply #3 on: 15 September 2008, 15:32:17 »

In 2001 when the financial crisis hit my country, I know what it means to take your baggage and leave the office with a last look :(
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Jay w

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Re: A black hole in market
« Reply #4 on: 15 September 2008, 16:28:10 »

Quote
In 2001 when the financial crisis hit my country, I know what it means to take your baggage and leave the office with a last look :(

well if i do that i am leaving my house behind as well......i work from home  :o
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DaveyDavey

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Re: A black hole in market
« Reply #5 on: 15 September 2008, 16:53:03 »

I love the way media seize on a few statistics and then tell the world that everything is going to end. >:(

Whilst HBOS shares did fall by a third today they are currently trading only 16% down. The FTSE100 was down over 200 points but has since climbed back up above that figure. Okay, I accept that at the time of press these figures were accurate but prices change daily and the only true price is the one at the end of trading, which tells us how bad things were. We've got 15 minutes or so left of trading and I'd be surprised if the FTSE does close 200 points down  ;)

Just to put things into perspective:

14 March 2007    6000.37                  
13 July 2007       6718.70      +12%            
16 August 2007   5858.90      - 13%
16 October 2007  6644.50      +13%
16 December      6284.70            -5.5%

17 March 2008    5414.40      -14%
19 May 2008       6376.50           +17%
15 Sept 2008      5224.00            -18%

Considering that the sub-prime fiasco started 18 months ago, we've not done too badly with it so far. It just looks worse today because of all the panic in the market.

You'd never guess I'd been fielding phone calls about this all day long now would you  :y
« Last Edit: 15 September 2008, 16:54:14 by DaveyDavey »
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HolyCount

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Re: A black hole in market
« Reply #6 on: 15 September 2008, 17:41:40 »

Thing is, Davey, whatever the stats say, if big banks and big business's are going down the tubes the outlook is bleak for Joe Public. Let's face it, we have Gordon in charge  :'(
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Markie

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Re: A black hole in market
« Reply #7 on: 15 September 2008, 17:45:46 »

...and now AIG go cap in hand to the federal bank for a loan to stay afloat.

Same Federal Bank said "no" to Lehman last night....

I suspect this is about to go into meltdown.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/15/business/15aig.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
« Last Edit: 15 September 2008, 17:49:46 by Markiec »
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Re: A black hole in market
« Reply #8 on: 15 September 2008, 18:55:28 »

Now, I'm not an economist or an American accountancy lawyer but, as far as I can see, Lehman Bros have applied for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Not gone bust, down the tubes, down the pan or any other sensationalist rubbish that the BBC and their cronies would have us believe.

Sure, this is not a perfect situation but it's not exactly 'meltdown' either.

For those who are not familiar with the concept of 'Chapter 11' it goes like this:

"When a troubled business is unable to service its debt or pay its creditors, the business or its creditors can file with a federal bankruptcy court for protection under either chapter 7 or chapter 11. In chapter 7, the business ceases operations and a trustee sells all of its assets and distributes the proceeds to its creditors. A chapter 11 filing is usually an attempt to stay in business while a bankruptcy court supervises the "reorganization" of the company's contractual and debt obligations. The court can grant complete or partial relief from most of the company's debts and its contracts, so that the company can make a fresh start. Sometimes, if the business's debts exceed its assets, then at the completion of bankruptcy the company's owners all end up without anything; all their rights and interests are ended and the company's creditors are left with ownership of the newly reorganized company.

In enacting chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy code, Congress concluded that it is sometimes the case that the value of a business is greater if sold or reorganized as a going concern than the value of the sum of its parts if the business's assets were to be sold off individually. It follows that it may be more economically efficient to allow a troubled company to continue running, cancel some of its debts, and give ownership of the newly reorganized company to the creditors whose debts were canceled. Alternatively, the business can be sold as a going concern with the net proceeds of the sale distributed to creditors ratably in accordance with statutory priorities. In this way, jobs may be saved, the engine of profitability which is the business is maintained rather than being dismantled, and, as a proponent of a chapter 11 plan is required to demonstrate as a precursor to plan confirmation, the business's creditors end up with more money than they would in a chapter 7 liquidation."

Source. Wikipedia who can put it better than me!

As I say, not perfect but a long way from what is being portrayed in our dumbed down, sensationalist mainstream media!!!
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Bandit127

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Re: A black hole in market
« Reply #9 on: 15 September 2008, 19:00:36 »

Chapter 11 is fine in the States and may not look that serious.

In the UK brach, the administrators are in and struggling to find the money to pay the wages at the end of this week. 4,000 people  :(

From the Beeb:
Quote
PWC told a news conference in London that it is unclear whether Lehman's UK staff will get paid the $75m (£42m) that they are owed in wages this month.

"When we took over this morning, there was no cash in the company," said Tony Lomas from PWC.

"We still don't know what the position is - we will tell staff as soon as we know if we can, or if it is appropriate to pay staff on Friday."
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Markie

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Re: A black hole in market
« Reply #10 on: 15 September 2008, 19:02:02 »

Quote
Now, I'm not an economist or an American accountancy lawyer but, as far as I can see, Lehman Bros have applied for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Not gone bust, down the tubes, down the pan or any other sensationalist rubbish that the BBC and their cronies would have us believe.

Sure, this is not a perfect situation but it's not exactly 'meltdown' either.

For those who are not familiar with the concept of 'Chapter 11' it goes like this:

"When a troubled business is unable to service its debt or pay its creditors, the business or its creditors can file with a federal bankruptcy court for protection under either chapter 7 or chapter 11. In chapter 7, the business ceases operations and a trustee sells all of its assets and distributes the proceeds to its creditors. A chapter 11 filing is usually an attempt to stay in business while a bankruptcy court supervises the "reorganization" of the company's contractual and debt obligations. The court can grant complete or partial relief from most of the company's debts and its contracts, so that the company can make a fresh start. Sometimes, if the business's debts exceed its assets, then at the completion of bankruptcy the company's owners all end up without anything; all their rights and interests are ended and the company's creditors are left with ownership of the newly reorganized company.

In enacting chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy code, Congress concluded that it is sometimes the case that the value of a business is greater if sold or reorganized as a going concern than the value of the sum of its parts if the business's assets were to be sold off individually. It follows that it may be more economically efficient to allow a troubled company to continue running, cancel some of its debts, and give ownership of the newly reorganized company to the creditors whose debts were canceled. Alternatively, the business can be sold as a going concern with the net proceeds of the sale distributed to creditors ratably in accordance with statutory priorities. In this way, jobs may be saved, the engine of profitability which is the business is maintained rather than being dismantled, and, as a proponent of a chapter 11 plan is required to demonstrate as a precursor to plan confirmation, the business's creditors end up with more money than they would in a chapter 7 liquidation."

Source. Wikipedia who can put it better than me!

As I say, not perfect but a long way from what is being portrayed in our dumbed down, sensationalist mainstream media!!!


Your absolutely correct  :y

However in todays climate theres little to no hope of the company remaining as is....this is the start of the gentle tap of the nails in to the coffin  :-/
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Golfbuddy

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Re: A black hole in market
« Reply #11 on: 15 September 2008, 19:06:41 »

Quote
Chapter 11 is fine in the States and may not look that serious.

In the UK brach, the administrators are in and struggling to find the money to pay the wages at the end of this week. 4,000 people  :(

From the Beeb:
Quote
PWC told a news conference in London that it is unclear whether Lehman's UK staff will get paid the $75m (£42m) that they are owed in wages this month.

"When we took over this morning, there was no cash in the company," said Tony Lomas from PWC.

"We still don't know what the position is - we will tell staff as soon as we know if we can, or if it is appropriate to pay staff on Friday."

I quite agree that this is bad news for the UK staff of this bank. What I feel so strongly about is the deliberate misrepresentation of the facts during what are such uncertain times. Consumer confidence is vital if we are not to descend into a much more serious situation than we already are in. The average man in the street sees and hears these headlines and takes them at face value.

I believe that this is one of the most irresponsible pieces of reporting that I have seen in a long time, produced by people with a vested interest in telling bad news.
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Bandit127

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Re: A black hole in market
« Reply #12 on: 15 September 2008, 19:12:39 »

Markets are down about 2-5%. The worst hit in the UK is Freinds Provident, down 17.85%. (Despite HBOS leading the headlines all day).

Well done the Doomsayers :y. Black Monday turned out to be very slightly Gray Monday  ::)

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HolyCount

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Re: A black hole in market
« Reply #13 on: 15 September 2008, 19:15:57 »

Quote
Quote
Chapter 11 is fine in the States and may not look that serious.

In the UK brach, the administrators are in and struggling to find the money to pay the wages at the end of this week. 4,000 people  :(

From the Beeb:
Quote
PWC told a news conference in London that it is unclear whether Lehman's UK staff will get paid the $75m (£42m) that they are owed in wages this month.

"When we took over this morning, there was no cash in the company," said Tony Lomas from PWC.

"We still don't know what the position is - we will tell staff as soon as we know if we can, or if it is appropriate to pay staff on Friday."

I quite agree that this is bad news for the UK staff of this bank. What I feel so strongly about is the deliberate misrepresentation of the facts during what are such uncertain times. Consumer confidence is vital if we are not to descend into a much more serious situation than we already are in. The average man in the street sees and hears these headlines and takes them at face value.

I believe that this is one of the most irresponsible pieces of reporting that I have seen in a long time, produced by people with a vested interest in telling bad news.

It was, after all, in the Mail !!!!!  However, Chapter 11 or not, the basis is much the same as being bankrupt --- debts outweigh assets and the company is being run by administrators. They will act to get the best return for creditors --- can't see much difference really --- still down the pan (as opposed to happily trading without a care in the world)
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cem_devecioglu

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Re: A black hole in market
« Reply #14 on: 15 September 2008, 19:21:56 »

Fact is we are talking about the results..

The reason lying behind a historical - huge bank(s) collapsing is not that simple..And possibly we only see the edge of iceberg..

When 2001 crysis hit us , the banks here collapse one after another..

The reason was the open position of the banks on external credits..

Although theoritically it can be said : economical system is correcting itself , the short term and long term effects can not be predicted easily..

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