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[ted_one]

On a personal basis..we really don't care what happens as we are in a good place,no mortgage, zero debts,and although interest rates are low,we are getting a reasonable return on our savings, plus our two private pensions etc.So in a way we are set for whatever happens,but let's remember what has happened in the past 40+years and if people can't remember or in many cases they haven't a clue because they aren't old enough to remember,then do your own research before you make that crucial decision and DO NOT! put your trust in the politicians and the so called business leaders as they are proven liars and in some cases even worse! Simples

[Sir Tigger KC]

We know that the headline £360m a week is complete 'dangle berries', and more like a quarter of that.

Our net contribution to the EU is actually just under a half of the headline gross figure of £360m a week at £161 a week.  Technically, the £360m a week is correct, as it represents the full amount Britain would have been liable for in 2014, if we didn't have the rebate and would have been the  amount Britain paid.    The reality going by the Treasury figures in the BBC article below is that we actually paid £276m a week. 

If we vote to remain, I wonder how long the rebate will survive as we are the only country in the EU to have such an arrangement. Good old Maggie! 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35943216

If the leve group can guarantee that the figure they are quoting gets put into hospitals (and staff), armed forces and frontline services then it would be a viable argument. But as it wouldn't be that much (in fact it would be a net loss) or used in that way, then it's pointless.

The Leave campaign can't make any guarantees on any policies.  That will be up to the Government of the day to sort out.  All they should say is "We could do this or we could do that...." 

[Migv6 le Frog Fan]

Its not principally about economics. Its about regaining our sovereignty and returning to being a democratic, self governing nation.
However, Ive listened to the economic arguments on both sides and I don't see any economic benefits to remaining. The stories which claim we are, assume that our trade with EU countries will be seriously adversely affected by leaving. Economic / business reality tells me that aint so, for pretty obvious reasons.
We will also be free to do business with the rest of the world from a very strong position indeed, for the first time in over 40 years, which holds the realistic promise of a much brighter future.
Don't forget that most of the people / organisations who are predicting doom & gloom if we leave were saying exactly the same thing about us refusing to join the Euro.
Almost all of them also have a vested interest, often due to EU grants / funding.
This system of grants and funding is the much vaunted rebate that the Remainians shout about. Its true the EU does send back a percentage of the monay we pay them, but the crucial thing is that they decide how it is spent.
That's why many of the businesses, organisations, universities, art farty showbiz types et. are now preaching the gospel of the EU.
The EU is a basket case, and its likely that it will implode before long. If we are still shckled to it, it will cause ur very serious damage when it does.
Remember how it stole money from depositors accounts on Cyprus ? The next wave of fincial meltdown could bring that upon us.
It is a political project, which tries to make the markets and economics fit its agenda. That will never ever work. It will end in tears.
We should get out before we are the ones who are crying.

[Migalot]

We know that the headline £360m a week is complete 'dangle berries', and more like a quarter of that.

We hand over £17.8bn per annum (2015), which equates to around £342m a week, but rebates reduce the total to £12.9 billion. That’s around £200 for every person in the UK. For context, that is more than the annual budget of the Home Office, which spends about £9 billion a year. It’s around a tenth of the budget for the NHS in England. It’s also enough to reduce the basic rate of income tax by 3p in the pound. £12.9 billion is around £35 million a day (x7 =  265m per week.

Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12176663/EU-Facts-how-much-does-Britain-pay-to-the-EU-budget.html

On the flip side, how much do British businesses make by being in euroland?
If those British business were not making that extra by being in the EU, we'd be spending a shit load more covering the loss in taxes and the higher unemployment.

With respect, that's a spurious argument, since no sensible person has suggested that trade with the EU will cease, were we to leave the EU. Indeed, WTO agreements mean that we will continue to trade as we do now. Furthermore, we are a net importer from the EU (£20.9bn imports vs. £19.6bn exports in march 2016), so no country will stop business with us, even if they could. 

Given that we'll most likely be financially worse off (both personally and as a nation, though the 2 are loosely linked anyway), the immigration argument is invalid (as it makes no difference whether we are in or out), and this £360m per week is poppycock, it seems that Leave are running out of options.

There's no reason to expect that we will be worse off (see above). The immigration argument is NOT invalid since, after Brexit,  we would be able to restrict immigration to only those whose skills we require. Which means that we would not be flooded by people to whom we would need to provided housing, education, health services and social security benefits, but without much in return. Our infrastructure is creaking now. If we remain, it will become untenable.

We should also note that we are likely to lose our zero-rate VAT on food, children's clothes and medicine if we stay in.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/12126569/EU-VAT-review-could-end-Britains-exemption-on-food-medicine-and-childrens-clothing.html

We should also note that we have been ordered by the EU to raise the current 5% VAT on  insulation materials to 20%.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d0a675e6-0adb-11e5-98d3-00144feabdc0.html

We should also note today's EU ruling on insurance VAT, which is likely to increase premiums.
http://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20160317...

Face up to facts, this our chance to get back control over our borders and taxation!
We simply should not continue in a club over which we have no control. In 20 years, Britain has voted 72 times against European Council - and have been defeated 72 times.

[ted_one]

I agree, and I believe that 'we ain't see nothing yet' as so far that we do not have a strong enough leadership  to stand up to the Euro bullies, and that due to our governments mismanagement of the relationship with Europe we will be just be setting ourselves for more of the same....so be it, and those people that vote to stay will be partly responsible for the demise of this country as we know it.......things like an even crappier NHS,more exploitation of all workers,overcrowded schools,housing shortages,roads crammed to capacity etc, the list is endless and let's face it those signs are already there....but believe what you will,because if the 'stay' supporters think they will be protected from the above,then I think they should get a check up from the neck up. Vote out...most people I know are going to do just that,these are the sort of people have never been asked in a BBC poll or any other poll what they think, and surprisingly they represent a broad spectrum of age groups.....Hmm

[TheBoy]

With respect, that's a spurious argument, since no sensible person has suggested that trade with the EU will cease, were we to leave the EU. Indeed, WTO agreements mean that we will continue to trade as we do now. Furthermore, we are a net importer from the EU (£20.9bn imports vs. £19.6bn exports in march 2016), so no country will stop business with us, even if they could. 

Clearly trade will not cease. That's ridiculous. Trade *WILL* reduce as the price of trading will increase, both on the taxation and on the overheads in dealing with exportation. That will make both our goods uncompetitive, and goods we wish to buy more expensive.

Yes, its possible that we may be able to make some trading alliances, but the overheads for businesses dealing with different processes and tax rules for each country will not be insignificant.

Leaving will have an impact on our manufacturing in the short term.


That is all pretty much certain.



As to the borders argument, we are not part of the free movement, thus we can control our borders (legally, if useless at doing it physically).  So that's an invalid argument for both sides, as there is no change whatever happens.

[Migalot]

Trade *WILL* reduce as the price of trading will increase, both on the taxation and on the overheads in dealing with exportation. That will make both our goods uncompetitive, and goods we wish to buy more expensive.
Yes, its possible that we may be able to make some trading alliances, but the overheads for businesses dealing with different processes and tax rules for each country will not be insignificant.
Leaving will have an impact on our manufacturing in the short term.
That is all pretty much certain.

It will take at least two years for Brexit to be implemented, so there''s plenty of time to introduce trade agreements with anyone. Besides which, if all the rest of the EU stay together, then how can they have different processes and tax rules, as they will be harmonised?   

As to the borders argument, we are not part of the free movement, thus we can control our borders (legally, if useless at doing it physically).  So that's an invalid argument for both sides, as there is no change whatever happens.

No it isn't invalid, because although we're not in the Schengen Area, anyone with an EU passport is permitted to live and work in the UK... That would not be the case after Brexit. 

[Sir Tigger KC]

We hand over £17.8bn per annum (2015), which equates to around £342m a week, but rebates reduce the total to £12.9 billion. That’s around £200 for every person in the UK.

Not correct as the rebate is deducted at source, not refunded as is commonly believed. 

[Migalot]

Not correct as the rebate is deducted at source, not refunded as is commonly believed. 

Hair-splitting, but agreed. 

[Sir Tigger KC]

Not correct as the rebate is deducted at source, not refunded as is commonly believed. 

Hair-splitting, but agreed. 

It makes about £4.4 billion* difference, so hardly hairsplitting! 

As said earlier, I doubt we have the rebate for much longer anyway as it has to be renegotiated every few years and the agreement of all the other EU countries is required.    If we stay, I fully expect at least one country (probably France) to exercise their veto, forcing us to pay the full subs! 

*This was 2014's rebate, 2015's rebate was £4.9 billion.

[Entwood]

If a "leave" supporter could kindly explain just one tiny point to me I would be appreciative ... (I'll then ask another, and another and another on similar points) ....

If we take a simple subject like UK meat "exports" to the EU (technically they are not exports as we are, at present, part of the EU so can readily sell our produce in the EU without most restrictions), "IF" we leave the EU then we will be only able to "export" meat to EU countries under the terms published here ...

http://www.imta-uk.org/import-export/importing/countries-approved-to-export-to-the-eu

Now, the proposals, as I understand them, is that the EU will give us "special" permissions to "bypass" those rules, or they will instantly "approve" all our present facilities as "acceptable"....

My questions are:

1) Just why would France, who tried for years to prevent Beef from UK being sold in France, suddenly agree to bend all the rules?? and as ALL 27 countries would need to agree, or it doesn't happen.

2) Germany, Belgium and Poland got extremely upset at UK proposed legislation on animal welfare regarding Veal Crates, and tried very hard to bypass it, as they believe it cost them a lot of money (who cares about the animals ?), just why would these countries support any "special" treaties with UK over meat exports??

3) Eastern European EU members have been complaining that access to Western Europe poultry markets is dominated by UK/France/Germany and have been asking for fairer distribution in order to increase their exports, just why would they agree to give UK "easy" access to a marketplace they want to expand into ??

So, 3 questions purely on meat ... the same logic can be used on all manner of goods ..... from vegetables to cars, in fact on any item that is also made  in another EU country ... WHY would that country give us "special" rights to compete against them when they can protect and even increase, their market share ??

The "leave" campaign have not yet explained to me just "why" ......

[Migalot]

If anyone STILL thinks we should remain, please take a few minutes to watch this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=psLJ0lECmSw

And remember, this is an Irish MEP who is expected to vote on the measures. 

[Migalot]

1) Just why would France, who tried for years to prevent Beef from UK being sold in France, suddenly agree to bend all the rules?? and as ALL 27 countries would need to agree, or it doesn't happen.

2) Germany, Belgium and Poland got extremely upset at UK proposed legislation on animal welfare regarding Veal Crates, and tried very hard to bypass it, as they believe it cost them a lot of money (who cares about the animals ?), just why would these countries support any "special" treaties with UK over meat exports??

3) Eastern European EU members have been complaining that access to Western Europe poultry markets is dominated by UK/France/Germany and have been asking for fairer distribution in order to increase their exports, just why would they agree to give UK "easy" access to a marketplace they want to expand into ??

Look, for Germany (for example), the UK is its third largest trading partner. I am sure we're near the top of the list in the case of France and Belgium, too. There's no way they are going to mess about with us, since their commercial interests are too great. Business and the market place will rule, as they always haves done (even before the wretched EU).

Besides which, it's not just about trade, it's about sovereignty too. You want us to be dragged into a European Army? And what about TTIP?

[Entwood]

1) Just why would France, who tried for years to prevent Beef from UK being sold in France, suddenly agree to bend all the rules?? and as ALL 27 countries would need to agree, or it doesn't happen.

2) Germany, Belgium and Poland got extremely upset at UK proposed legislation on animal welfare regarding Veal Crates, and tried very hard to bypass it, as they believe it cost them a lot of money (who cares about the animals ?), just why would these countries support any "special" treaties with UK over meat exports??

3) Eastern European EU members have been complaining that access to Western Europe poultry markets is dominated by UK/France/Germany and have been asking for fairer distribution in order to increase their exports, just why would they agree to give UK "easy" access to a marketplace they want to expand into ??

Look, for Germany (for example), the UK is its third largest trading partner. I am sure we're near the top of the list in the case of France and Belgium, too. There's no way they are going to mess about with us, since their commercial interests are too great. Business and the market place will rule, as they always haves done (even before the wretched EU).

Besides which, it's not just about trade, it's about sovereignty too. You want us to be dragged into a European Army? And what about TTIP?

That is not really an answer to any of my points, it is more an expression of hope ...... I was after something just a little more concrete .....

and IMHO, TTIP is a "non-argument" as the chances of it actually happening are remote... it must happen before Obama leaves as both Trump and Clinton are against it, and that timescale is just too fast for it to go through, given the opposition of France and Germany

[Migalot]

That is not really an answer to any of my points, it is more an expression of hope ...... I was after something just a little more concrete .....

And there can be no concrete answer — not from the Leave side, nor the Remain side. These are uncharted waters, so looking for a definitive answer is practically impossible. The Remain side "hope and believe" that we can continue with business as usual (I doubt it), whilst the Leave side "hope and believe" that our long-term future will be brighter outside the EU.

No one can give a definitive answer about how Europe will look a couple of years down the line. NO one can give a definitive answer as regards the actions of other European countries. We can only surmise with the evidence as we see it.

I am not hopeful about the long-term future of the EU and see civil unrest, if not war, breaking out. I do not want my children to be a part of that, so I'm voting out.