Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Entwood]

I suppose the million dollar question is why should other countries accept our terms? On what basis?

I suspect an independent UK's terms would be a lot less onerous and demanding than the EU's. 

All Britain will want to achieve from a trade deal is the ability to trade freely with that country, with minimal paperwork and low or zero tariffs. 

I can't see Britain demanding contributions to our budget, the right of our people to live and work in that country and maybe even the regulatory burden would be less onerous. 

In theory it should be quick and simple.  Just 2 countries thrashing out a deal, which the US and Australia managed in 2 years. 

How long have they been negotiating TTIP? 

You do reaise with that statement about the uk not demanding the right to live in the others country will affect 1.2 million britons? The number who live abroad in the eu?
What does the leave campaign propose for these people? Should they be repatriated? Or just leave them hung out to dry?

It is simply another bit of "leave" campaign "magic maths" ....  you close all the borders to immigrants, and demand everything the UK wants from the surrounding countries (who all capitulate because we are so wonderful) and the world is great.... we want it, we get it being the mantra.

The reality is those other countries actually make their own demands, and refuse to take on all the ex-pats living in their countries .. so .. we stop 500,000 immigrants (hooray .. look at the pressure that is no longer on housing/hospitals etc) .. but then 1,200,000 ex-pats come home ..... and all want somewhere to live, and many are elderly and need more medical services .....

but why let the truth get in the way of a good headline ?? 

[tigers_gonads]

OR you draw a line in the sand and say, who is here can stay.

Too those who want to come here .......

IF you are a economic migrant AND the United Kingdom job market needs you to fulfil a position that no UK passport holders can do then welcome as long as you obey our laws, respect our language / way of life and have insurance for the first 5 years and pay into our system 

In other words, basically the same as UK born people do in the rest of the world 

[LC0112G]

I suppose the million dollar question is why should other countries accept our terms? On what basis?

I suspect an independent UK's terms would be a lot less onerous and demanding than the EU's. 

All Britain will want to achieve from a trade deal is the ability to trade freely with that country, with minimal paperwork and low or zero tariffs. 

I can't see Britain demanding contributions to our budget, the right of our people to live and work in that country and maybe even the regulatory burden would be less onerous. 

In theory it should be quick and simple.  Just 2 countries thrashing out a deal, which the US and Australia managed in 2 years. 

8 of the UK's top 10 export markets are EU countries, and that accounts for 43.7% of exports. The USA is our single biggest market (15%), and we actually have a trade surplus with them.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/apr2016

So

No 1 : USA - Obama has already said the USA will be in no hurry to enter into any trade deals with the UK post Brexit. Do you believe him?
No 2,3,4,5,7,8,9 : All EU countries, so we would have to negotiate an EU wide deal for free trade . Likely to be very quick?
No 10 : Switzerland. One of our major competitors in Global financial markets. I suspect they'll tag along with the EU.

So that leaves no 6 - China.

Do we really want to give up the trade deals we already have (by virtue of EU membership) for the unknown prospect of yet to be negotiated deals with all of the above? 

[tigers_gonads]

I suppose the million dollar question is why should other countries accept our terms? On what basis?

I suspect an independent UK's terms would be a lot less onerous and demanding than the EU's. 

All Britain will want to achieve from a trade deal is the ability to trade freely with that country, with minimal paperwork and low or zero tariffs. 

I can't see Britain demanding contributions to our budget, the right of our people to live and work in that country and maybe even the regulatory burden would be less onerous. 

In theory it should be quick and simple.  Just 2 countries thrashing out a deal, which the US and Australia managed in 2 years. 

8 of the UK's top 10 export markets are EU countries, and that accounts for 43.7% of exports. The USA is our single biggest market (15%), and we actually have a trade surplus with them.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/apr2016

So

No 1 : USA - Obama has already said the USA will be in no hurry to enter into any trade deals with the UK post Brexit. Do you believe him?
No 2,3,4,5,7,8,9 : All EU countries, so we would have to negotiate an EU wide deal for free trade . Likely to be very quick?
No 10 : Switzerland. One of our major competitors in Global financial markets. I suspect they'll tag along with the EU.

So that leaves no 6 - China.

Do we really want to give up the trade deals we already have (by virtue of EU membership) for the unknown prospect of yet to be negotiated deals with all of the above?

Especially, after the amount of money that the Chinese are ploughing into these isles.
Its always going to be in China's interest to sort thing out quickly as well as our own 

[Sir Tigger KC]

I suppose the million dollar question is why should other countries accept our terms? On what basis?

I suspect an independent UK's terms would be a lot less onerous and demanding than the EU's. 

All Britain will want to achieve from a trade deal is the ability to trade freely with that country, with minimal paperwork and low or zero tariffs. 

I can't see Britain demanding contributions to our budget, the right of our people to live and work in that country and maybe even the regulatory burden would be less onerous. 

In theory it should be quick and simple.  Just 2 countries thrashing out a deal, which the US and Australia managed in 2 years. 

How long have they been negotiating TTIP? 

You do reaise with that statement about the uk not demanding the right to live in the others country will affect 1.2 million britons? The number who live abroad in the eu?
What does the leave campaign propose for these people? Should they be repatriated? Or just leave them hung out to dry?

It is simply another bit of "leave" campaign "magic maths" ....  you close all the borders to immigrants, and demand everything the UK wants from the surrounding countries (who all capitulate because we are so wonderful) and the world is great.... we want it, we get it being the mantra.

The reality is those other countries actually make their own demands, and refuse to take on all the ex-pats living in their countries .. so .. we stop 500,000 immigrants (hooray .. look at the pressure that is no longer on housing/hospitals etc) .. but then 1,200,000 ex-pats come home ..... and all want somewhere to live, and many are elderly and need more medical services .....

but why let the truth get in the way of a good headline ??

You think the Spanish are going to kick out all the British expats?  That's complete nonsense, as most British expats in Spain are Spanish residents as well.  If the Spanish and the other EU countries for that matter kicked out all the Brits it would be against International law and would be akin to Idi Amin kicking the Asian Ugandan's out of Uganda in the 1970's! 

Those living in EU countries who havn't already, might have to get work/residence visa's I concede, but I have British friends who live in the USA, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Kenya, Malawi, Vietnam, and Singapore, all of whom have had to get a visa or permit of some sort or the other and they've managed to do that! 

But as you are fond of saying Entwood lets not let the truth get in the way of a good story! 

The thing is, you both totally missed the point of my post about Britain doing trade deals, as I wasn't thinking about a deal with the EU, I was thinking about the rest of the world and my point was that in my opinion at least, Britain will be able to go out into the wider world and thrash out simple trade deals that lower or eliminate tariffs and red tape.  That's it!  Just a deal about trade, nothing about contribution's to each others budgets or access to each others labour markets. 

[LC0112G]

Especially, after the amount of money that the Chinese are ploughing into these isles.
Its always going to be in China's interest to sort thing out quickly as well as our own 

http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7379/CBP-7379.pdf

China is 3.6% of UK exports. USA is 15% ish. EU is 43.7%.

Which is the more important?

[LC0112G]

The thing is, you both totally missed the point of my post about Britain doing trade deals, as I wasn't thinking about a deal with the EU, I was thinking about the rest of the world and my point was that in my opinion at least,

But by not thinking about 43% of our current export market you're ignoring our largest single export market by a country mile (or 1.6Km if you prefer). Nose, face, off, cutting.

Britain will be able to go out into the wider world and thrash out simple trade deals that lower or eliminate tariffs and red tape.  That's it!  Just a deal about trade, nothing about contribution's to each others budgets or access to each others labour markets. 

To trade with the EU (on a free trade agreement) we will have to contribute to it's budget and labour markets - Norway and Switzerland do. We probably wouldn't have to for the rest of the world countries (ex EU and USA), but these individually represent a tiny percentage of current markets.

[tigers_gonads]

Especially, after the amount of money that the Chinese are ploughing into these isles.
Its always going to be in China's interest to sort thing out quickly as well as our own 

http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7379/CBP-7379.pdf

China is 3.6% of UK exports. USA is 15% ish. EU is 43.7%.

Which is the more important?

Its just as important to China as it is to the USA or the EU.

You just sit down with them individually and start with whatever terms are current.
If both sides are happy and pleased with want they are getting then bobs your aunty and you scribble it down and get on with life 

Things only get difficult when one or the other side wants it too which as said is in nobody's best interest 

[Sir Tigger KC]

Especially, after the amount of money that the Chinese are ploughing into these isles.
Its always going to be in China's interest to sort thing out quickly as well as our own 

http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7379/CBP-7379.pdf

China is 3.6% of UK exports. USA is 15% ish. EU is 43.7%.

Which is the more important?

But at what cost? 

It's widely accepted that in the event of Brexit as part of any sort of trade deal the UK will have to contribute to the EU budget and accept free movement of people.  Why?    It's always smacked of the actions of a playground bully to me! 

It's also widely accepted that our trade with the EU is declining and we need to look further afield.  We need to be more nimble and flexible which we can't as part of the EU.    It's about the long term future, not the past or even the present! 

In your earlier post, you mentioned Obama and his comment that the US will be in no hurry to do a deal with Britain.

Obama will be in the history books come November and it seems 50/50 who will be the next POTUS.  Like him or Loath him Trump has already said that he will do a deal.  If Hillary gets in, I agree there will be no quick deal, but guess what?  That's no different to what we have at the moment!    So I can't really see a problem there and the situation might even improve! 

[johnny_boy]

Do you really believe what you just said?
Two guys sit down and scribble something down on a serviette?
I think trade deals are a littttlllle bit more involved than what you are describing.

[LC0112G]

Its just as important to China as it is to the USA or the EU.

Doubt it, and for the UK currently, EU > USA > China

You just sit down with them individually and start with whatever terms are current.

196 countries in the world at the last count. Post Brexit, the 'current' terms are 'no terms at all', so default WTO rules would apply.

If both sides are happy and pleased with want they are getting then bobs your aunty and you scribble it down and get on with life 

Things only get difficult when one or the other side wants it too which as said is in nobody's best interest 

I admire your optimism but there are always parties in every country opposed to something or other, or who want special treatment/protection. Can I suggest you watch a few episodes of Yes Minister/Prime Minster to see how things really work. Currently being repeated on Freeview/Yesterday and as true/funny/depressing now as it was in the 1980s.
http://yesterday.uktv.co.uk/shows/yes-prime-minister/

[Sir Tigger KC]

Do you really believe what you just said?
Two guys sit down and scribble something down on a serviette?
I think trade deals are a littttlllle bit more involved than what you are describing.

It seems that way where the EU is involved! 

As I said earlier Australia and the US thrashed out a deal in 2 years, yet they've been negotiating TTIP for years maybe over a decade?    and even then it looks unlikely to succeed.....   

[Kevin Wood]

Of course, the E.U. will be only too happy to stop VW, BMW, Merc and Audi exporting all those "tawt chariots" to the UK overnight, because we have no trade deal, and the Germans will roll over and accept it.

[Sir Tigger KC]

I admire your optimism but there are always parties in every country opposed to something or other, or who want special treatment/protection.

Doing a trade deal between 2 countries has to be easier and simpler than doing a deal between one country and group of 28 countries, where each one of those 28 countries can veto the entire deal if there is something that dosn't suit them. 

I direct you again to TTIP.   

[johnny_boy]

Especially, after the amount of money that the Chinese are ploughing into these isles.
Its always going to be in China's interest to sort thing out quickly as well as our own 

http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7379/CBP-7379.pdf

China is 3.6% of UK exports. USA is 15% ish. EU is 43.7%.

Which is the more important?

Its just as important to China as it is to the USA or the EU.

You just sit down with them individually and start with whatever terms are current.
If both sides are happy and pleased with want they are getting then bobs your aunty and you scribble it down and get on with life 

Things only get difficult when one or the other side wants it too which as said is in nobody's best interest 

I think there is something fundamentally wrong with assuming that we just pick up from the eu deal.
It aasumes that the foreign state or organisation is completely passive and just says 'yes sir' when boris or nigel knock on their door after brexit asking for a trade deal.
It ignores the possibility that they are independent entities who can turn around and say 'well our last agreement was with the eu, not with you. We are starting the negotiation at a different position'.
Brexiters treat this possibility with 'well we are british so we can ignore this'.
I find this argument very difficult to swallow.
The world owes us nothing as far as trade goes.