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[Varche]

I think both sides overlook a fundamental issue with trade. All this talk of barriers going up, no trade, trade deals taking years . (all Threats and Fear statements by the way) overlooks a fundamental issue. Vested interests run trade and commerce. No way will they want things to stop working. The ships would stop running, mines would stop mining, smelters would stop smelting, docks would have nothing to load/unload, logistics would have nothing to deliver.  etc etc. Europe and possibly the world would go into recession. Vested interests wouldn't have that. How do countries with no trade deal manage to trade?

No I can confidently predict cars will still be made and still astonishlingly be sold. Salad crops will still be grown and sold as will beef and French wine. Too much at stake to not do so.

No one is suggesting that. What could happen is that a tariff is imposed. The foreign investor in the plant decides that the uk is a volatile place to do business with. He thought that he had one set of tariffs to deal with. Now he has 27 to deal with. And thats ignoring the rest of the world. Suddenly his business plan is not looking so good, and maybe france or spain may be a better bet. They dont have all this hassle with tearing up trade agreements.
And thats just the start...

But is it?  No one has every satisfacorily answered my question on other forums regarding foreign owned companies employing locals. e.g. 240,000 mainly Brits employed in Britain by German owned companies. This is reciprocated around Europe. Trade just going to dry up or have daft tariffs slapped on? Don't think so.I still maintain it will get sorted quicker than you would imagine. Like I say too many vested interests.

[Entwood]

I suppose the million dollar question is why should other countries accept our terms? On what basis?

I suspect an independent UK's terms would be a lot less onerous and demanding than the EU's. 

All Britain will want to achieve from a trade deal is the ability to trade freely with that country, with minimal paperwork and low or zero tariffs. 

I can't see Britain demanding contributions to our budget, the right of our people to live and work in that country and maybe even the regulatory burden would be less onerous. 

In theory it should be quick and simple.  Just 2 countries thrashing out a deal, which the US and Australia managed in 2 years. 

How long have they been negotiating TTIP? 

You do reaise with that statement about the uk not demanding the right to live in the others country will affect 1.2 million britons? The number who live abroad in the eu?
What does the leave campaign propose for these people? Should they be repatriated? Or just leave them hung out to dry?

It is simply another bit of "leave" campaign "magic maths" ....  you close all the borders to immigrants, and demand everything the UK wants from the surrounding countries (who all capitulate because we are so wonderful) and the world is great.... we want it, we get it being the mantra.

The reality is those other countries actually make their own demands, and refuse to take on all the ex-pats living in their countries .. so .. we stop 500,000 immigrants (hooray .. look at the pressure that is no longer on housing/hospitals etc) .. but then 1,200,000 ex-pats come home ..... and all want somewhere to live, and many are elderly and need more medical services .....

but why let the truth get in the way of a good headline ??

That won't happen due to the Vienna convention. I do expect their to be bad feeling initially towards expats e.g. here in Spain. However they will get over it especially as I am now 100% convinced that even with an Out vote the establishment will ensure that it NEVER happens. I also predict a spectacular from Remain in the next 9 days. That will save years of political and legal wrangling to get an out vote overturned. Vested interests have far too much at stake to allow an out vote.The very best we can hope for is the Eu realises it needs to change direction and adapt to sentiment (something it has been spectacularly unsuccessful at). We in Spain are likely to get a Left wing coalition government on the 26th June. Bit of a change from the Conservative EU toe licker we have had. When the Eu fines Spain in Uly for failing to get its debt down enough I am expecting a backlash .

At no point did I say they would be SENT home ...   No treaty can stop folks DECIDING to return to UK. I have many friends, mostly ex-military, who have settled in Spain, Italy, Portugal, Cyprus, Greece etc ... and "survive" on savings/ pensions. With the extremely low interest rates their savings are no longer providing an income, and with the pound dropping against the euro (http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=1Y) down some 15% (ish) over the past year, and forecast to get worse, especially if Leave win. their UK (Sterling) pensions are being eroded as well. Add to that dramatic increases in medical insurance costs, rising cost of living in many places, and a lot of folks that I know are thinking seriously about returning to UK permanently. Some have gone as  far as getting advice on selling their properties abroad before the shit fully hits the fan.

If enough ex-pats do the same it sort of erodes any benefit of blocking immigration, and thats before you decide you need MORE NHS staff to deal with the influx of elderly patients ..... and most NHS staff are immigrants ......

[johnny_boy]

Do people not think the fact that none of this is clear exposes the central flaw of brexit - that it simply hasnt been thought out.
Its like a shopping list of wishful thinking.

[gbh]

Why have UKIP got the most MEPs because people generally have had enough of the EU whether its the majority we shall find out but you won't find any love for the EU or any interest.Who is your MEP??? When this is finished i'm sure there will be a change to our politics,it has too!!!

[LC0112G]

No one is suggesting that. What could happen is that a tariff is imposed. The foreign investor in the plant decides that the uk is a volatile place to do business with. He thought that he had one set of tariffs to deal with. Now he has 27 to deal with. And thats ignoring the rest of the world. Suddenly his business plan is not looking so good, and maybe france or spain may be a better bet. They dont have all this hassle with tearing up trade agreements.
And thats just the start...

But is it?  No one has every satisfacorily answered my question on other forums regarding foreign owned companies employing locals. e.g. 240,000 mainly Brits employed in Britain by German owned companies. This is reciprocated around Europe. Trade just going to dry up or have daft tariffs slapped on? Don't think so.I still maintain it will get sorted quicker than you would imagine. Like I say too many vested interests.

The sole purpose of company is to maximise profits for it's shareholders. Companies will do what makes the most economic sense to them - their duty is to their share holders, not their country or employees.

Trade won't just 'dry up' overnight - the companies can't react that quickly. If they can see a cheaper way of doing the same thing, then they will slowly migrate to the way that seems likely to maximise future profits. If that means closing factories in the UK and moving production elsewhere then that's what will happen. Probably not overnight, but when decisions on upgrades or new investment are required.

For example, there is a 10% tarrifs on imported cars into the EU. How long would Nissan/Honda tolerate 10% extra costs on exporting cars from Swindon/Middlesborough to the EU post Brexit? They couldn't move production over to EU land on 24th Jun. But when the current models range needs updating/replacing? Would they upgrade UK factories, or move production to new or pre-existing EU based sites?

[Varche]

Do people not think the fact that none of this is clear exposes the central flaw of brexit - that it simply hasnt been thought out.
Its like a shopping list of wishful thinking.

If you need some clarity then try likening the situation to a marriage. You want change. None is forthcoming despite your partner saying things will change. You decide enough is enough and go for a divorce. Does life stop after divorce? Do you have a clear road path (e.g. a better partner to try)? No you do not. However it doesn't stop people successfully going through a divorce. I get fed up of all this but how will it work, what are we going to do. One thing we wouldn't do is sit back in pessimist mode and be spoonfed bumf by the EU.

PS if you thrive on worry then have a think about who will actually be running Britain assuming a) an Out vote and b) the vested interests don't get it converted into a remain scenario.  Right wing Tories not particularly skilled either. Interested in the ordinary man and zero hour contracts? No just in feathering their own nests. that is the real area for concern.

[Varche]

No one is suggesting that. What could happen is that a tariff is imposed. The foreign investor in the plant decides that the uk is a volatile place to do business with. He thought that he had one set of tariffs to deal with. Now he has 27 to deal with. And thats ignoring the rest of the world. Suddenly his business plan is not looking so good, and maybe france or spain may be a better bet. They dont have all this hassle with tearing up trade agreements.
And thats just the start...

But is it?  No one has every satisfacorily answered my question on other forums regarding foreign owned companies employing locals. e.g. 240,000 mainly Brits employed in Britain by German owned companies. This is reciprocated around Europe. Trade just going to dry up or have daft tariffs slapped on? Don't think so.I still maintain it will get sorted quicker than you would imagine. Like I say too many vested interests.

The sole purpose of company is to maximise profits for it's shareholders. Companies will do what makes the most economic sense to them - their duty is to their share holders, not their country or employees.

Trade won't just 'dry up' overnight - the companies can't react that quickly. If they can see a cheaper way of doing the same thing, then they will slowly migrate to the way that seems likely to maximise future profits. If that means closing factories in the UK and moving production elsewhere then that's what will happen. Probably not overnight, but when decisions on upgrades or new investment are required.

For example, there is a 10% tarrifs on imported cars into the EU. How long would Nissan/Honda tolerate 10% extra costs on exporting cars from Swindon/Middlesborough to the EU post Brexit? They couldn't move production over to EU land on 24th Jun. But when the current models range needs updating/replacing? Would they upgrade UK factories, or move production to new or pre-existing EU based sites?

I believe that Nissan and Honda have said they wouldn't move their factories. Of course with more generous grants from the Eu to move yet more factories out of the Uk to other parts of Europe who knows. having said that the Eu is going to be really strapped for cash buying its army (why does a trading bloc need an army!) and also paying their estimate of up to 62 billion to stem the flow of migrants from North Africa.

[Sir Tigger KC]

For example, there is a 10% tarrifs on imported cars into the EU. How long would Nissan/Honda tolerate 10% extra costs on exporting cars from Swindon/Middlesborough to the EU post Brexit? They couldn't move production over to EU land on 24th Jun. But when the current models range needs updating/replacing? Would they upgrade UK factories, or move production to new or pre-existing EU based sites?

Ford transferred production of the Transit van from Southampton to Turkey................  With an £80 million loan from the EU! 

They obviously decided that the cost of production in the EU was greater than the 10% tariff, so even if we stay there are no guarantees.....

[johnny_boy]

Problem is marriage involves two people. But sometimes people stick together for the kids.
In this case itis millions of people and generations to come.
Bit of an oversimplification i think to compare it to marriage.
I respect every ones opinions obviously there is a lot of strong feelings around europe.
I just wish they had thought all of this through before presenting it to the electorate.

[LC0112G]

Why have UKIP got the most MEPs because people generally have had enough of the EU whether its the majority we shall find out but you won't find any love for the EU or any interest.Who is your MEP??? When this is finished i'm sure there will be a change to our politics,it has too!!!

In much the same way as the scots vote for the SNP. They had a referrendum for independence - the SNP's main aim - which resulted in a majority to remain in the UK. Yet at the following general election, the SNP won 50 of 53 Scottish seats.

IMHO - Most UK voters want the EU to change, and for those in Brussels/Strasbourg to 'but out'. The one way of expressing that view is to vote UKIP at Euro Elections. However, that doesn't mean UK voters support many/most UKIP policies - it's just seen as a way of putting a brake on the EU parliament.

[LC0112G]

I believe that Nissan and Honda have said they wouldn't move their factories. Of course with more generous grants from the Eu to move yet more factories out of the Uk to other parts of Europe who knows.

The Nissan statement is here :
http://www.newsroom.nissan-europe.com/uk/en-gb/Media/Media.aspx?mediaid=142871

Now you can spin things any way you want, but I struggle to see how that says anything close to "they wouldn't move their factories"

[LC0112G]

They obviously decided that the cost of production in the EU was greater than the 10% tariff, so even if we stay there are no guarantees.....

Agree - no guarantees. But which outcome of the referendum makes such moves more likely?

[Steve B]

Problem is marriage involves two people. But sometimes people stick together for the kids.
In this case itis millions of people and generations to come.
Bit of an oversimplification i think to compare it to marriage.
I respect every ones opinions obviously there is a lot of strong feelings around europe.
I just wish they had thought all of this through before presenting it to the electorate.

Maybe They didn't think there was a need to think it through owing to them being sure of a remain win.. But then we never had the big masses of boats coming over when dave said we would have a referendum.

[gbh]

Oh well if UKIP only do as well as the SNP then i'll settle for that!!

[Nick W]

Do people not think the fact that none of this is clear exposes the central flaw of brexit - that it simply hasn't been thought out.
Its like a shopping list of wishful thinking.

That is exactly what has persuaded me to settle on a reluctant and guarded Remain vote. All the Leave campaigners have published is a vague suggestion that it will be OK, with no idea of how that will be the case. Their continual implication that our immigration and economic problems will instantly improve is especially insulting.