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[Varche]

I suppose the million dollar question is why should other countries accept our terms? On what basis?

I suspect an independent UK's terms would be a lot less onerous and demanding than the EU's. 

All Britain will want to achieve from a trade deal is the ability to trade freely with that country, with minimal paperwork and low or zero tariffs. 

I can't see Britain demanding contributions to our budget, the right of our people to live and work in that country and maybe even the regulatory burden would be less onerous. 

In theory it should be quick and simple.  Just 2 countries thrashing out a deal, which the US and Australia managed in 2 years. 

How long have they been negotiating TTIP? 

You do reaise with that statement about the uk not demanding the right to live in the others country will affect 1.2 million britons? The number who live abroad in the eu?
What does the leave campaign propose for these people? Should they be repatriated? Or just leave them hung out to dry?

It is simply another bit of "leave" campaign "magic maths" ....  you close all the borders to immigrants, and demand everything the UK wants from the surrounding countries (who all capitulate because we are so wonderful) and the world is great.... we want it, we get it being the mantra.

The reality is those other countries actually make their own demands, and refuse to take on all the ex-pats living in their countries .. so .. we stop 500,000 immigrants (hooray .. look at the pressure that is no longer on housing/hospitals etc) .. but then 1,200,000 ex-pats come home ..... and all want somewhere to live, and many are elderly and need more medical services .....

but why let the truth get in the way of a good headline ??

That won't happen due to the Vienna convention. I do expect their to be bad feeling initially towards expats e.g. here in Spain. However they will get over it especially as I am now 100% convinced that even with an Out vote the establishment will ensure that it NEVER happens. I also predict a spectacular from Remain in the next 9 days. That will save years of political and legal wrangling to get an out vote overturned. Vested interests have far too much at stake to allow an out vote.The very best we can hope for is the Eu realises it needs to change direction and adapt to sentiment (something it has been spectacularly unsuccessful at). We in Spain are likely to get a Left wing coalition government on the 26th June. Bit of a change from the Conservative EU toe licker we have had. When the Eu fines Spain in Uly for failing to get its debt down enough I am expecting a backlash . 

[LC0112G]

It's also widely accepted that our trade with the EU is declining and we need to look further afield.  We need to be more nimble and flexible which we can't as part of the EU.    It's about the long term future, not the past or even the present! 

Yes it's declining, down from 50%+ to 43% today. But short and medium term, it's going to remain our largest export market by far. Taking actions which threaten our export market in order to hopefully increase our long term future is a huge gamble which will cause short and medium term pain to everyone.

In your earlier post, you mentioned Obama and his comment that the US will be in no hurry to do a deal with Britain.

Obama will be in the history books come November and it seems 50/50 who will be the next POTUS.  Like him or Loath him Trump has already said that he will do a deal.  If Hillary gets in, I agree there will be no quick deal, but guess what?  That's no different to what we have at the moment!    So I can't really see a problem there and the situation might even improve! 

Well there is no deal currently in place with the USA, so post Brexit there will be no change there. Trump can say what he likes, but the Senate and Congress actually have to approve US treaties so that's where the decision will actually be made. The current TTIP proposals look to be in trouble so are unlikely to be ratified any time soon either side of the Atlantic.

[Sir Tigger KC]

I think there is something fundamentally wrong with assuming that we just pick up from the eu deal.
It aasumes that the foreign state or organisation is completely passive and just says 'yes sir' when boris or nigel knock on their door after brexit asking for a trade deal.
It ignores the possibility that they are independent entities who can turn around and say 'well our last agreement was with the eu, not with you. We are starting the negotiation at a different position'.
Brexiters treat this possibility with 'well we are british so we can ignore this'.
I find this argument very difficult to swallow.
The world owes us nothing as far as trade goes.

You're completely right that the world owes us nothing. 

But you are also completely ignoring the fact that we are a large consumer market and it will be as much in those independent countries interests to engage with us as it is ours to engage with them. 

[Sir Tigger KC]

In your earlier post, you mentioned Obama and his comment that the US will be in no hurry to do a deal with Britain.

Obama will be in the history books come November and it seems 50/50 who will be the next POTUS.  Like him or Loath him Trump has already said that he will do a deal.  If Hillary gets in, I agree there will be no quick deal, but guess what?  That's no different to what we have at the moment!    So I can't really see a problem there and the situation might even improve! 

Well there is no deal currently in place with the USA, so post Brexit there will be no change there. Trump can say what he likes, but the Senate and Congress actually have to approve US treaties so that's where the decision will actually be made. The current TTIP proposals look to be in trouble so are unlikely to be ratified any time soon either side of the Atlantic.

At least we agree on something!   

[Entwood]

Especially, after the amount of money that the Chinese are ploughing into these isles.
Its always going to be in China's interest to sort thing out quickly as well as our own 

http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7379/CBP-7379.pdf

China is 3.6% of UK exports. USA is 15% ish. EU is 43.7%.

Which is the more important?

Its just as important to China as it is to the USA or the EU.

You just sit down with them individually and start with whatever terms are current.
If both sides are happy and pleased with want they are getting then bobs your aunty and you scribble it down and get on with life 

Things only get difficult when one or the other side wants it too which as said is in nobody's best interest 

I think there is something fundamentally wrong with assuming that we just pick up from the eu deal.
It aasumes that the foreign state or organisation is completely passive and just says 'yes sir' when boris or nigel knock on their door after brexit asking for a trade deal.
It ignores the possibility that they are independent entities who can turn around and say 'well our last agreement was with the eu, not with you. We are starting the negotiation at a different position'.
Brexiters treat this possibility with 'well we are british so we can ignore this'.
I find this argument very difficult to swallow.
The world owes us nothing as far as trade goes.

100% correct ....

[johnny_boy]

I think there is something fundamentally wrong with assuming that we just pick up from the eu deal.
It aasumes that the foreign state or organisation is completely passive and just says 'yes sir' when boris or nigel knock on their door after brexit asking for a trade deal.
It ignores the possibility that they are independent entities who can turn around and say 'well our last agreement was with the eu, not with you. We are starting the negotiation at a different position'.
Brexiters treat this possibility with 'well we are british so we can ignore this'.
I find this argument very difficult to swallow.
The world owes us nothing as far as trade goes.

You're completely right that the world owes us nothing. 

But you are also completely ignoring the fact that we are a large consumer market and it will be as much in those independent countries interests to engage with us as it is ours to engage with them. 

But you are yet again making a huge assumption - that they will offer the same deal as they did before with the eu. What if they dont? You are simply ignoring this possibility, having convinced yourself that it cant possibly happen.
As they say on every financial product, 'past performance is no guarantee of future performance'.
As i said earler, you are assuming that the foreign state is completely passive. And ignoring that it is a new deal conducted by a new party at a different time.

[Varche]

I think both sides overlook a fundamental issue with trade. All this talk of barriers going up, no trade, trade deals taking years . (all Threats and Fear statements by the way) overlooks a fundamental issue. Vested interests run trade and commerce. No way will they want things to stop working. The ships would stop running, mines would stop mining, smelters would stop smelting, docks would have nothing to load/unload, logistics would have nothing to deliver.  etc etc. Europe and possibly the world would go into recession. Vested interests wouldn't have that. How do countries with no trade deal manage to trade?

No I can confidently predict cars will still be made and still astonishlingly be sold. Salad crops will still be grown and sold as will beef and French wine. Too much at stake to not do so.

[LC0112G]

Doing a trade deal between 2 countries has to be easier and simpler than doing a deal between one country and group of 28 countries, where each one of those 28 countries can veto the entire deal if there is something that dosn't suit them. 

Probably - yes. But we (the UK) would then have to do a trade deal with the 27 other remaining EU countries to continue with free trade with our biggest export market, so as you say  " each one of those 28 27 countries can veto the entire deal if there is something that dosn't suit them"

[Sir Tigger KC]

Doing a trade deal between 2 countries has to be easier and simpler than doing a deal between one country and group of 28 countries, where each one of those 28 countries can veto the entire deal if there is something that dosn't suit them. 

Probably - yes. But we (the UK) would then have to do a trade deal with the 27 other remaining EU countries to continue with free trade with our biggest export market, so as you say  " each one of those 28 27 countries can veto the entire deal if there is something that dosn't suit them"

Which is where we are at the moment looking out at the rest of the world.... 

[LC0112G]

I think both sides overlook a fundamental issue with trade. All this talk of barriers going up, no trade, trade deals taking years . (all Threats and Fear statements by the way) overlooks a fundamental issue. Vested interests run trade and commerce. No way will they want things to stop working. The ships would stop running, mines would stop mining, smelters would stop smelting, docks would have nothing to load/unload, logistics would have nothing to deliver.  etc etc. Europe and possibly the world would go into recession. Vested interests wouldn't have that. How do countries with no trade deal manage to trade?

No I can confidently predict cars will still be made and still astonishlingly be sold. Salad crops will still be grown and sold as will beef and French wine. Too much at stake to not do so.

It's about "free trade deals" - not no trade deals.

If there is no "free trade deal", then when you export to a country you have to pay import tarrifs and duties to that country. These can be anything from 0% to 1000%. The effect is that it pushes up the price of your exported goods to the customers in the destination market. This has the effect that locally produced goods appear 'cheaper' to the customer, so they tend to stop buying your goods, and start buying from elsewhere.

It's easy to do with some goods - milk, cheese, basically anything farmed. However, if the end customer is intent on buying premium brands, like Scottish Whisky, or Pomerol wine, or BMW's or Somerset Cheddar Cheese and Scrumpy then they will just pay the new artificially increased price. Exports won't stop, they just become more expensive, which negatively affects quantities and company profits.

[Sir Tigger KC]

I think there is something fundamentally wrong with assuming that we just pick up from the eu deal.
It aasumes that the foreign state or organisation is completely passive and just says 'yes sir' when boris or nigel knock on their door after brexit asking for a trade deal.
It ignores the possibility that they are independent entities who can turn around and say 'well our last agreement was with the eu, not with you. We are starting the negotiation at a different position'.
Brexiters treat this possibility with 'well we are british so we can ignore this'.
I find this argument very difficult to swallow.
The world owes us nothing as far as trade goes.

You're completely right that the world owes us nothing. 

But you are also completely ignoring the fact that we are a large consumer market and it will be as much in those independent countries interests to engage with us as it is ours to engage with them. 

But you are yet again making a huge assumption - that they will offer the same deal as they did before with the eu. What if they dont? You are simply ignoring this possibility, having convinced yourself that it cant possibly happen.
As they say on every financial product, 'past performance is no guarantee of future performance'.
As i said earler, you are assuming that the foreign state is completely passive. And ignoring that it is a new deal conducted by a new party at a different time.

And you are ignoring the possibility that an independent UK might be able to offer better trade terms, as our needs from a deal will be simpler than having to take account of the very different wants and need of 28 countries! 

Also lets assume that there is no trade deal on the table with the EU and UK, do you think that Australian wine producers won't be delighted with the possibility of having a trade advantage over their French rivals, or Kenyan farmers who at present due to EU protectionist policies find it difficult to sell their produce here, gaining access to the UK market? 

[LC0112G]

Doing a trade deal between 2 countries has to be easier and simpler than doing a deal between one country and group of 28 countries, where each one of those 28 countries can veto the entire deal if there is something that dosn't suit them. 

Probably - yes. But we (the UK) would then have to do a trade deal with the 27 other remaining EU countries to continue with free trade with our biggest export market, so as you say  " each one of those 28 27 countries can veto the entire deal if there is something that dosn't suit them"

Which is where we are at the moment looking out at the rest of the world.... 

Yes - With an agreement already in our pocket that we can trade freely with 27 other countries (plus Norway and Switzerland) that represent 8 out of 10 of our largest customers.

[johnny_boy]

I think both sides overlook a fundamental issue with trade. All this talk of barriers going up, no trade, trade deals taking years . (all Threats and Fear statements by the way) overlooks a fundamental issue. Vested interests run trade and commerce. No way will they want things to stop working. The ships would stop running, mines would stop mining, smelters would stop smelting, docks would have nothing to load/unload, logistics would have nothing to deliver.  etc etc. Europe and possibly the world would go into recession. Vested interests wouldn't have that. How do countries with no trade deal manage to trade?

No I can confidently predict cars will still be made and still astonishlingly be sold. Salad crops will still be grown and sold as will beef and French wine. Too much at stake to not do so.

No one is suggesting that. What could happen is that a tariff is imposed. The foreign investor in the plant decides that the uk is a volatile place to do business with. He thought that he had one set of tariffs to deal with. Now he has 27 to deal with. And thats ignoring the rest of the world. Suddenly his business plan is not looking so good, and maybe france or spain may be a better bet. They dont have all this hassle with tearing up trade agreements.
And thats just the start...

[Sir Tigger KC]

Doing a trade deal between 2 countries has to be easier and simpler than doing a deal between one country and group of 28 countries, where each one of those 28 countries can veto the entire deal if there is something that dosn't suit them. 

Probably - yes. But we (the UK) would then have to do a trade deal with the 27 other remaining EU countries to continue with free trade with our biggest export market, so as you say  " each one of those 28 27 countries can veto the entire deal if there is something that dosn't suit them"

Which is where we are at the moment looking out at the rest of the world.... 

Yes - With an agreement already in our pocket that we can trade freely with 27 other countries (plus Norway and Switzerland) that represent 8 out of 10 of our largest customers.

That's true enough, but there are costs and consequences, so the idea that we trade freely within the EU is a myth in my opinion.

[LC0112G]

And you are ignoring the possibility that an independent UK might be able to offer better trade terms, as our needs from a deal will be simpler than having to take account of the very different wants and need of 28 countries! 

Also lets assume that there is no trade deal on the table with the EU and UK, do you think that Australian wine producers won't be delighted with the possibility of having a trade advantage over their French rivals, or Kenyan farmers who at present due to EU protectionist policies find it difficult to sell their produce here, gaining access to the UK market? 

I'm sure the Australian wine producers and Kenyan farmers would be delighted if we offered them preferential trade deals. I'm not sure that the UK housewife will be amused if/when we impose import duties on the vast majority of the goods we import from the EU in "retaliation" to the EU imposing tarrifs on our exports to them. And be is no doubt - they would have to impose tarrifs until/unless a free trade deal with the EU could be agreed.