Incase anybody is still under the illusion this is like a mild dose of influenza here are some stats on mortality by age group:
InfluenzaAge | Mortality % |
0-4 | 0.01 |
5-17 | 0.01 |
18-49 | 0.06 |
50-64 | 0.06 |
65+ | 0.83 |
Covid-19Age | Mortality % | xTimes More Deadly |
0-9 | 0 | 0 |
10-19 | 0.2 | 20 |
20-29 | 0.2 | 10 |
30-39 | 0.2 | 10 |
40-49 | 0.4 | 20 |
50-59 | 1.3 | 21.68 |
60-65 | 3.6 | 60* |
65-69 | 3.6 | 4.30* |
70-79 | 8% | 9.6 |
80+ | 14.8 | 17.8 |
*statistical anomaly due to the different age bands.
These use the Chinese figures from the Worldometer site which has been updated with some mortality rates for confirmed cases. In the UK there are typically 17,000 additional deaths during the winter Influenza season, mainly in the over 65s. Covid-19 death rates start ramping up from 45 & really accelerate beyond 60-65. Common factors are age, chronic medical conditions & (probably smoking rates (& even if you have given up that increases once below 20 years since you gave up according to NYC heath officials)). I haven't done any back of the envelop calculations here as they certainly won't cheer anybody up, but start adding zeros to 17,000.
Country | Male Smoking % | X. Confirmed Cases | Y. Recovered | Z. Deaths | (Z / X)% | (Z / Y)% | (Z / (Y + Z))% |
China | 50%+ | 80,735 | 58,735 | 3,120 | 3.86 | 5.31 | 5.04 |
Italy | 25.4 | 9,172 | 724 | 463 | 5.04 | 63.95 | 39.00 |
South Korea | 40.7 | 7,478 | 118 | 53 | 0.71 | 44.91 | 32.91 |
Iran | 23.4 | 7,161 | 2,394 | 237 | 3.31 | 9.80 | 9.01 |
UK | 16.5 | 321 | 18 | 4 | 1.25 | 22.22 | 18.18 |
In the UK those that haven't done their preparation over the last 3 to 5 weeks when it was obvious it was going to get worse & probably be a pandemic, have left it much too late. Fortunately, I was ahead of the curve here with buying 100 disposable masks, 10 x safety glasses, 3 x 500ml sanitiser, 2 x tubs of sanitiser creme (easy to use when out & about), N95/P3 sealing respirator, with case & spare filters, sealing safety goggles, (I always keep a box of 100's disposable gloves to hand for when working on cars etc.), 30-60 at a stretch 90 days of lockdown tinned, dried & frozen food & other essential supplies when there were no shortages or price hikes.
UK confirmed cases are doubling every 3 days, so quarantine will in IMV start within 14 days & as like in Italy death rates will escalate rapidly where the NHS is overwhelmed where beds, but especially ICUs for the 1000's of critical viral pneumonia cases fall well short of demand. It is going to be everybody for themselves, so good luck to all on here.
UK guidelines suggest that ICU use will be decided by patient scoring & those that fall outside of this offered pallitive care while they get on with the inportant job of dying (or if very lucky surviving)!