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[STEMO]

All of this shit is grinding me down, I've just renewed both car insurance policies without argument. Never even looked at the meerkats.

[Doctor Gollum]

My car has got the virus, so I am stuck with the train for commuting...

Wish me luck

[STEMO]

My car has got the virus, so I am stuck with the train for commuting...

Wish me luck

Oh dear. All that coughing and sneezing and rubbing up against each other. Not good.

[dave the builder]

My car has got the virus, so I am stuck with the train for commuting...

Wish me luck

was nice knowing you Al 
i would say pass my condolences to you wife ,but you'd probably be giving her the germs in doing so 

[dave the builder]

don't forget to put a big red cross X on your front door 

I assume the bin men will swap duties to collect the bodies  "bring out your dead "
 also assuming the bin men haven't all died ,that's a lot plague infested of wheely bin handles to touch 

[Rods2]

10/3 373 confirmed UK cases
13/3 798 confirmed UK cases

Now if the UK government let it free run for herd immunity (the TB plan?):
16/3 1,600?
19/3 3,200?
22/3 6,400?

Which is why UK chief thinks that there currently 5k-10k cases in the UK, which is about right for a 5-14 day incubation rate. You are infectious as soon as your invaded cells start viral shedding which according to The Lancet lasts typically 20 days, but the longest recorded for a survivor was 37 days, which suggests isolation from 5-14 day period that symptoms occur, so from signs to no longer being vectious is typically a week to 2.5 weeks but could be up to a month.

25/3 12,800?
28/3 25,600?
31/3 51,200?
3/4 102,400?
6/4 204,800?
9/4 409,600?
12/4 819,200?
15/4  1.64M?
18/4 3.28M?
21/4 6.56M?
24/4 13.12M?
27/4 26.24M?
30/4 40M? 60%

Which is why they are talking about it peaking at the end of April to mid May. In this 3 months if left to freerun with no lockdowns. Deaths using Chinese confirmed cases death rates: 4.7% of men 940,000 die & 2.8% of women 560,000 die = 1,500,000 deaths in 3 months or about 1 in 45 of the UK population. To put this into context 700,000 UK service men died over 4 years in WWI. This means that lockdowns are probably only about a week away to mitigate the rate of infection, but there will probably several peaks and lockdowns until mass vaccinations early in 2021. If 60% of the global population were infected that would be about 150M deaths or about three times the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic.

Lockdowns have worked quite quickly in China & in the first infected Italian Lombardy towns.  In China it now looks like they have got it under control.

[Varche]

I was going to post that Spain infection rates are nearly doubling by the day but I had better not.

Likewise I wont quote the UK government health guy’s reasonable worst case scenario death rate.

Rose coloured specs back on!

[Doctor Gollum]

I was going to post that Spain infection rates are nearly doubling by the day but I had better not.

Likewise I wont quote the UK government health guy’s reasonable worst case scenario death rate.

Rose coloured specs back on!

I would plan your return quite carefully, you may not be able to travel for long.

[Doctor Gollum]

To Rods, I would politely suggest keeping his fag packet man maths to himself.

We're potentially all going to catch it eventually. However we aren't all going to die from it, not even close.

The Chinese live under martial law with a thinly veiled illusion of civility, so 'locking down' entire cities was actually pretty easy.

The shutting down Italy is a headline approach, but won't be sustainable once those enforcing the lock down start getting infected. Then what happens?

Closing borders may be an effect measure in controlling spread, but otherwise there is little reason to not to keep calm and carry on, however clichéd that is.

If we're lucky most of us won't be laid off, but the way the media is spreading panic and fear, we will be lucky to see the end of March

[Entwood]

Interesting article on the BBC ....

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51874084

Now, even if you disagree with the UK Government approach .. and yes you have that right .... as a "non-scientist" may I simply point out one simple sentanece in the whole article ....

"It is important to stress that this strategy has been drawn up based on evidence and input from many of the world's leading scientists and doctors, many of whom have been involved in controlling the spread of the virus in China and Singapore. And it is notable that no scientists have spoken out against the UK government's approach."

So ... not following the knee-jerk reactions of the idiot who tries to run Ireland is probably actually sensible .... despite what the "media" are trying to force on us.

[Sir Tigger KC]

The more I think about this, the more I think that the government is taking the right approach. 

In the Republic of Ireland they've had 70 odd cases and 1 death, yet they're shutting down the schools, universities and pretty much the whole country.   

In 2 weeks time there will be households up and down the country where they're climbing the walls with bored kids etc, and as they seem well enough the parents will say "Ah fek it, off you go then!"  and that's when the virus will really take hold over there. 

Over here we'll have all caught it, recovered and become immune.    Or died. 

As too Wee Krankie taking unilateral actions in Scotland, she's just doing that for political reasons to appeal to her bravehearts and is clearly not listening to the scientists. 

[Doctor Gollum]

Finally, a voice of reason 

[Sir Tigger KC]

Finally, a voice of reason 

That said I still think it was madness allowing thousands of footie fans to come over from Madrid the other night. 

[Raeturbo]

Been in  Edinburgh since Thursday morning hoping to watch the rugby (which was being played in Cardiff) with the Jocks but of course it was called off today..... ahh well back to the whiskey🥃😷👀

[Varche]

To Rods, I would politely suggest keeping his fag packet man maths to himself.

We're potentially all going to catch it eventually. However we aren't all going to die from it, not even close.

The Chinese live under martial law with a thinly veiled illusion of civility, so 'locking down' entire cities was actually pretty easy.

The shutting down Italy is a headline approach, but won't be sustainable once those enforcing the lock down start getting infected. Then what happens?

The first failing was letting anyone travel out of China. However the Genie is out of the bottle. As I said earlier. Let us compare notes in three months time.

My circumstances are pretty complicated. Ideally I would be back in Spain but we both need to leave our home for at least 5 weeks during the coming olive pollen season.  It isnt a choice but an imperative. Our plan had been to visit relatives in the UK.

A further spanner is I have two relatives seriously ill here in Yorkshire. Dont know what the answer is. Maybe there isn't one. Maybe mrs V needs to drive herself and dog over.

Closing borders may be an effect measure in controlling spread, but otherwise there is little reason to not to keep calm and carry on, however clichéd that is.

If we're lucky most of us won't be laid off, but the way the media is spreading panic and fear, we will be lucky to see the end of March