Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Mister Rog]

Personally, I think that national vetoes will be abolished eventually as they make the decision making process too unwieldy with 28 countries, and possibly 35 countries in the future. 

 . . . . and that is very much part of the problem. Originally just 6 countries all geographically near each other, all with broadly similar cultures etc. Now . . . . .

[Sir Tigger KC]

And you obviously didn't read his post properly, where he pointed out that QMV might be applied to taxation.   

Personally, I think that national vetoes will be abolished eventually as they make the decision making process too unwieldy with 28 countries, and possibly 35 countries in the future. 

Not without HMG agreeing to it. Again - what part of VETO is so difficult to understand?

But if 27-34 other countries vote in the opposite direction, we're only going to be able to say no for so long...

No. Changes to EU Tax legislation requires unanimous agreement of all 28 countries. New countries entering the EU requires the unanimous agreement of all 28 countries.  Treaty changes require unanimous agreement of all 28 countries. Removing the VETO would need a treaty change.

If the UK says no, then it can't happen.

That's assuming that the UK will say no.  Not all British PM's are as hard nosed with the EU as Thatcher was. 

[Mister Rog]

That's assuming that the UK will say no.  Not all British PM's are as hard nosed with the EU as Thatcher was. 

Correction. No PMs have been as hard nosed with the EU as Thatcher was

[ted_one]

Strange thing is that my sister and brother in law who have lived in Canada for 37 years and have been told that as they are receiving a UK state pension they are eligible to vote, if they care to register But I'm sure that there's a rule that ex pats can't vote here after 15 years of absence

[Migv6 le Frog Fan]

I read yesterday that in the event of Brexit, MP,s are already planning to stay in the single market with free movement of people etc. without consulting the electorate. If this is true its utterly outrageous. 
Btw, much of what Entwood and LCO112G say is true, but IMO they miss one crucial thing. These things will change in time. History shows us that the EU is a one way ratchet. If you look at how things have changed since last time we voted to stay in, its quite staggering.
This process will continue no matter what Cameron says, and will carry on long after he is gone.
In the 70,s both Heath and Wilson assured the electorate that there would be no loss of soberiegnty and no process of intwegration into Europe.
Papers released since then have shown that they knew full well that they were lying to the country and parliament, just as Cameron knows he is lying now.
Voting for the status quo is not an option. We either leave or we accept much more integration in the not too distant future.

[ted_one]

It's going to be interesting tomorrow night....Camermoron V's Farage in a face up. Farage never takes a knife to a gun fight, so I for one will be glued to the haunted fish tank

[TheBoy]

Firstly, can I state that I do not think our PM is a particularly good statesman...  ...just probably the best to what was on offer at the time. Likewise, despite Mr MigV6 attempt to brainwash us into thinking that Mr Farage is almost electable over the past 7 or 8 years, I think Farage is nothing more than a release of hot air...

Camermoron V's Farage

But this turns a serious debate into a childish playground banter...


Its the issues, not the personalities that count.

[Sir Tigger KC]

I read yesterday that in the event of Brexit, MP,s are already planning to stay in the single market with free movement of people etc. without consulting the electorate. If this is true its utterly outrageous. 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36457120

Yep it looks like there will be an establishment stitch up of some kind to protect all those vested interests! 

[LC0112G]

I read yesterday that in the event of Brexit, MP,s are already planning to stay in the single market with free movement of people etc. without consulting the electorate. If this is true its utterly outrageous. 

The result of the referendum is not binding on the government, so a majority for "Leave" does not automatically result in the start of the process to leave. It's likely to need parliament to vote to accept the result of the referendum, and I doubt that the majority of MP's support Leave.

It's also possible that the 2020 general election results in a govt that doesn't support "Leave", in which case if we haven't handed in our notice before the election, the new govt will say it's got a mandate to remain.

[Sir Tigger KC]

I read yesterday that in the event of Brexit, MP,s are already planning to stay in the single market with free movement of people etc. without consulting the electorate. If this is true its utterly outrageous. 

The result of the referendum is not binding on the government, so a majority for "Leave" does not automatically result in the start of the process to leave. It's likely to need parliament to vote to accept the result of the referendum, and I doubt that the majority of MP's support Leave.

It's also possible that the 2020 general election results in a govt that doesn't support "Leave", in which case if we haven't handed in our notice before the election, the new govt will say it's got a mandate to remain.

I think that it would be a very unwise government that ignores the result of this referendum!    And if there is a vote for Brexit which is ignored I'd expect civil unrest and a UKIP landslide victory at the 2020 election. 

[Varche]

This post the vote thing has been exercising my mind.

Lets say Brexit wins the day. You (we) are still ruled by a party that is split down the middle  and yet was only voted for by something like 36% of the populace. The leadership of the Tory party could easily be resolved and to me that was Boris's aim. A shot at power he wouldn't otherwise have got. Osborne would have been the favourite post Cameron. Labour came out in support of staying in. So post Brexit a large proportion of MPs would be anti. That does give me cause for concern.

It might still work if some clever folk got on with the job. For example stunning the pundits and instead of having to opt for a Norway style trade agreement etc etc  coming up with (off the top of my head) starting a new common market to include Europe, Middle East and Africa. EU could join if they wanted.

seveteen days to go. Vested interests are huddled somewhere cooking up a winning publicity stunt whilst hoping there isn't an Immigration disaster or a leak about something the EU has up its sleeeves for post 24th June. Whatever they pull off it should win the day against the little person (for that is what the Out campaign is). Donald Trump is I believe opening his golf course in the Uk the day before (I think) I bet both sides have got their diaries full for that day already.

My final thought is if only the EU had adapted by say reducing the UK contribution and other changes over and above the trifle Cameron came back with, we wouldn't be having a referendum. True Cameron actually called it but the EU could have defused it if they had wanted to.

[Varche]

a bit of a lighter look at day after the referendum.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/7eac4946-ffd1-11e5-ac98-3c15a1aa2e62.html#axzz4Aki7XOBK

[Mister Rog]

Voting for the status quo is not an option. We either leave or we accept much more integration in the not too distant future.

My view, that kinda summarises it. People have to decide good or bad. Crystal ball required about what "integration" entails

[Rods2]

When the Leave narrowly win on the 23rd, there is only one sensible option and that is an EEA treaty which includes us staying in the single market. The control of EU immigration will not happen overnight, but we will be able to make our criterion for looking for work eligibility and benefits access tougher than we can at present. The next step beyond this is to join EFTA which unlike the EU is purely a trading block.

With an EEA treaty we will gain:

1. Our law has supremacy over EU law, so we are a sovereign state again.

2. Our supreme court is our highest court not the ECJ.

3. Most standards are global and made by global institutions like WTO, ISO etc. The UK will in effect be promotion by sitting on the top table like Noway in these standard negotiations, which at the moment we delegate to the EU and have to accept what they decide through QMV and any gold plating they QMV add.

4. We can negotiate our own trade deals and this will happen much faster than through the EU as they have to get 28 countries to agree. This is why they have an appalling record with very few trade agreements that have taken an inordinate long time to negotiate, with failure to agree being a very common outcome.

5. CAP, CFP, minimum VAT rates will not apply, nor will the currently being implement common tax rules and rates or the soon to be formed EU-Army (which to French great satisfaction, undermines NATO).

6. It will take a minimum of 2 years to get the EEA deal and probably more like 6 years to unpick 40 years of EU regulation. The EFTA is a global trading block which will further boost our global trade.

7. All these scare stories fables on how the sky will fall in on the 24th if we vote leave, take with a pinch of salt for the bullsh!t that they are. Norway went through the same with both their EU joining referendums which they rejected and yes it did make a difference they are now one of Europe's richest countries with a massive sovereign wealth fund.

8. Being an EEA member means we pay much less than our current EU fees, saving in the order of £5-7bn.

9. Prof Patrick Minford one of our leading macro-economists has calculated that with reduced EU over regulation that our economy will grow by at least an extra 6% over 10 years. A good measure on how the EU has stunted growth over the last 25 years is that the EU percentage of world trade has fallen twice as fast as it has for the US.

10. So use your vote wisely on the 23rd and if you belong to certain communities, don't forget to vote early and often.

The leaving process is all explained in this FLEXIT video or the 420 page PDF for those, like me, that prefer to read.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GliFMIHiGog

http://www.eureferendum.com/documents/flexcit.pdf

There is also the "Brexit The Movie" for those that haven't seen it, a bit too MSM for me, where I prefer as dry as cream-crackers style information videos and podcasts, but it does contain some interesting information.

https://www.brexitthemovie.com/

There is a wealth of information from both sides using social media (facebook, twitter). This has been especially important for Leave as they have a fraction of the budget of Remain, including the full 'un-biased' reporting by the BBC! The stream of government announcements has now stopped due to 1 month of Purdue, where it is illegal for Government to use the full resources of the civil service (at tax payers expense) which they did up to the 23th of May. Considering that the establishment have had global resources at their disposal I think Leave where they are currently at about 50% polling with momentum on their side have done remarkably well, so far. So much so, that the current rumour in Brussels is to offer further concessions to Cameron as a Leave spoiler 1 week before the referendum and when Leave win don't be further surprised when the [start] EU offer further concessions along with the invitation for another referendum [go to start as many times as necessary until we learn to vote in 'right' way].

We might be the first to Leave but we will probably be joined by at least 4 other countries pretty quickly and maybe more as we aren't the only ones that can see the damage the EU is doing to our political cohesiveness, institutions and especially our economic growth and wealth.

[aaronjb]

When the Leave narrowly win on the 23rd

Do you have this weeks thunderball numbers too, please, Rods?